I wish they wouldn't be so down on it but then I'm looking at it from an English perspective where we tend to be fairly laid-back regarding it. And I live in possibly the most religious and religiously conservative town in the entire country. People here tend to keep their beliefs to themselves or just share them with family and friends,. It makes for less tension or feeling of difference. We went through the Civil War in the 1660s or whenever, which was on religious grounds, largely.
Chess will never be solved, here's why
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Sep 30, 2022
0
#5623
To revert to a previous topic
The co-evolution of physics and maths (Symmetry Magazine)
[couldn't have been in a better place]
I was an evangelical atheist when I was about 14. I didn't make many converts and now I'm glad about that. I see the human mind as the important and wonderful thing, like the universe itself. Some people here have minds that reflect its capabilities and I believe that all here are decent people. ALL :- but some are struggling more than others and yet others are more irritating than they should be. The last refers to me ..... and Ratttigan.
NervesofButter wrote:
Optimissed wrote:
NervesofButter wrote:
Optimissed wrote:
I realised something today, and maybe it was the queen's death that has made me reflect. I'm happy, I'm fit and healthy, I have what I need and more besides. Familly and friends. Interestss and I can still work hard.
What is missing is when all my immediate family was together. Before 2011, when my mother died, and she was in a care home. We would all meet up there. My younger brother, now deceased, my father, deceased, my wife and son. Quite often all coming from different directions, to be together. And the influence that caused it was my mother, in a care home but still with all her wits about her. We would maybe go for a meal in a local pub and take her for a long walk in her wheelchair. That was a more true happiness, although now I have much more material things. And now I have a granddchild. All things pass.
At 59 im healthier than most people i know. I am the only one i know that is not on any prescription medications. I bike ride to work. I go to the gym when i can. I have hobbies. I have a small group of friends that can tell me the truth, and we can be honest with each other. I too have grandchildren
Am I "rich" in the monetary sense? Not even close. But am I rich in things that truly matter? Absolutely.
I would not trade the aches and pains of growing older for the wisdom i have gained and where im at in life.
I'm afraid you'll have to one day. I'm 71 and not at the aches and pains stage as yet. Still a long way to go and I have faith in that but I know not where. Life hasn't changed substantially. I still live from day to day, think of things to say to amuse my wife and work hard when I have to and because I enjoy it. And all my 11 mile walks are just about holding me together.
By aches and pain i was diagnosed with no cartilage in my left knee. So i ask my doctor is there is anything i can do? I get the usual doctor spiel about pain killers, injections, and knee replacement Completely ignoring my question. So i went home and do what i always do. Research. So here we are almost 7 months later and due to supplements and stretching i have reduced the stiffness, swelling, and pain by 90%.
I over-exercised when I was in my teens and had cartilege problems which wasn't helped by being kicked a couple of times just under my kneecap, playing football. What I did do was find that there are different ways of flexing your knee when you're walking and even running. Occasionally the pain comes back but I just change the way I put my feet doen and the way my knee flexes and the pain goes in a few minutes. Not much recently .... the last time was about 4 years ago when I was walking round Wasdale Lake in our Lake District. That's a difficult walk and I've done it maybe nine times, which is eight more than most people ever do it. No phone signals, boulder fields at an angle of about 40 degrees from flat, so the boulders can move and nowhere for an air ambulance to get in and a rescue has to be by boat. It can take hours before someone sees you from the other side of the Lake. I think that's why many people never do that walk. I just started putting my feet down differently and walking differently and the pain stopped.
I was an atheist for 50+ years, but that all changed in 2021.
NervesofButter wrote:
Optimissed wrote:
NervesofButter wrote:
Optimissed wrote:
NervesofButter wrote:
Optimissed wrote:
I realised something today, and maybe it was the queen's death that has made me reflect. I'm happy, I'm fit and healthy, I have what I need and more besides. Familly and friends. Interestss and I can still work hard.
What is missing is when all my immediate family was together. Before 2011, when my mother died, and she was in a care home. We would all meet up there. My younger brother, now deceased, my father, deceased, my wife and son. Quite often all coming from different directions, to be together. And the influence that caused it was my mother, in a care home but still with all her wits about her. We would maybe go for a meal in a local pub and take her for a long walk in her wheelchair. That was a more true happiness, although now I have much more material things. And now I have a granddchild. All things pass.
At 59 im healthier than most people i know. I am the only one i know that is not on any prescription medications. I bike ride to work. I go to the gym when i can. I have hobbies. I have a small group of friends that can tell me the truth, and we can be honest with each other. I too have grandchildren
Am I "rich" in the monetary sense? Not even close. But am I rich in things that truly matter? Absolutely.
I would not trade the aches and pains of growing older for the wisdom i have gained and where im at in life.
I'm afraid you'll have to one day. I'm 71 and not at the aches and pains stage as yet. Still a long way to go and I have faith in that but I know not where. Life hasn't changed substantially. I still live from day to day, think of things to say to amuse my wife and work hard when I have to and because I enjoy it. And all my 11 mile walks are just about holding me together.
By aches and pain i was diagnosed with no cartilage in my left knee. So i ask my doctor is there is anything i can do? I get the usual doctor spiel about pain killers, injections, and knee replacement Completely ignoring my question. So i went home and do what i always do. Research. So here we are almost 7 months later and due to supplements and stretching i have reduced the stiffness, swelling, and pain by 90%.
I over-exercised when I was in my teens and had cartilege problems which wasn't helped by being kicked a couple of times just under my kneecap, playing football. What I did do was find that there are different ways of flexing your knee when you're walking and even running. Occasionally the pain comes back but I just change the way I put my feet doen and the way my knee flexes and the pain goes in a few minutes. Not much recently .... the last time was about 4 years ago when I was walking round Wasdale Lake in our Lake District. That's a difficult walk and I've done it maybe nine times, which is eight more than most people ever do it. No phone signals, boulder fields at an angle of about 40 degrees from flat, so the boulders can move and nowhere for an air ambulance to get in and a rescue has to be by boat. It can take hours before someone sees you from the other side of the Lake. I think that's why many people never do that walk. I just started putting my feet down differently and walking differently and the pain stopped.
Some people take me as being "anti-hospital, surgery, prescriptions" I'm not. I'm sure all those things have there place. I just don't blindly believe everything my doctor tells me. When i went to see him in March, that was the first time in 16 years. He knows me and knows not to push things on me. If i need him i will come in. One time i had plantar fasciitis in my left foot. So i went in and got the usual: $400 custom made insoles, physical therapy, surgery. So i finally asked him to listen to me and i asked for the 4th. time. WHAT CAN I DO?
He finally gives in and says to take a golf ball or tennis ball and put as much pressure as i can stand on it and roll it around each morning. After 5 days on incredible pain that brought tears to my eyes it cleared up and no problems since. But again, typical medicine. If we cant charge you for it we wont tell you about it.
I quite like having a hospital consultant as a daughter in law. I can trust her.
Don't like her.
Optimissed wrote:
Don't like her.
- I preferred Johnson. I'm a Labour Party member. Told my wife I thought it would be a disaster for the country if Truss got in instead of Sunak. That's because it was evident that she doesn't have a clue about economics. You could tell.
Sep 30, 2022
0
#5632
Boris is the only politician I've ever seen that has a bad hair day every day.
Sep 30, 2022
0
#5633
Optimissed wrote:
Don't like her.
Oh, I thought you meant your daughter in law. Didn't think of Liz Truss.
MARattigan wrote:
Optimissed wrote:
Don't like her.
Oh, I thought you meant your daughter in law. Didn't think of Liz Truss.
Oh she's very sweet and loving.
Liz Truss that is.
Back on topic after the spamming spree of the trolls.
The game-theoretic value of a game is the outcome when all participants play optimally.
Ultra-weakly solved means that the game-theoretic value of the initial position has been determined. There is massive evidence that Chess is a draw.
- Expert opinions of all World Champions.
- AlphaZero self play 97.7% draws at 1 min / move, more with more time,
even if stalemate is declared a win. - TCEC with imposed 50 slightly unbalanced openings to prevent all draws.
- Human World Championships and top tournaments.
- ICCF World Championship Finals: 136 games = 127 draws + 6 white wins + 3 black wins.
table base win claims of > 50 moves without capture or pawn move allowed but do not occur - A tempo in the initial position is worth 1/3 pawn. You cannot queen a tempo.
Weakly solved means that for the initial position a strategy has been determined to achieve the game-theoretic value against any opposition.
Strongly solved is being used for a game for which such a strategy has been determined for all legal positions. For Chess this means a 32-men table base with 10^44 positions.
Weakly solving Chess needs 10^17 relevant positions.
- Samples of the 10^44 legal positions or the 10^37 positions without promotion to pieces not previously captured cannot be reached by optimal play from both sides.
- Checkers needed 10^14 positions to weakly solve and Losing Chess 10^9.
- Connect Four has been solved with 9 knowledge rules.
- A strategy can be brute force, can be a set of rules, or a combination of both.
- An engine of 10^9 positions / s running for 17 s (or a desktop for 4.7 h) includes the table base exact move in its top w = 4 moves with 1 error in 10^20 positions.
- The average length of ICCF WC games is d = 39 moves.
- 1104 ICCF WC draws are perfect games with optimal play from both sides.
- An upper bound U assuming no transpositions is U = ( w^(d + 1) - 1) / (w - 1).
- A lower bound L assuming full transpositions is L = e^w, regardless of d.
- An estimate E is the geometric mean of the upper and lower bounds: E = sqrt (L * U).
Cloud engines can calculate a billion positions / s.
A year counts 365.25 d / a * 24 h / d * 3600 s / h = 31,557,600 s / a.
Thus 3 cloud engines can weakly solve Chess in 5 years.
Humans are necessary to restrict the calculation to relevant positions only.
GM Sveshnikov said:
'Give me five years, good assistants and the latest computers
- I will bring all openings to technical endgames and "close" chess.'
The 'give me' implies 3 million $
to hire 3 (ICCF) (grand)masters 40 h / week and rent 3 cloud engines 24 / 7 for 5 years.
tygxc wrote:
Back on topic after the spamming spree of the trolls.
The game-theoretic value of a game is the outcome when all participants play optimally.
Ultra-weakly solved means that the game-theoretic value of the initial position has been determined. There is massive evidence that for Chess it is a draw.
- Expert opinions of all World Champions
- AlphaZero self play 97.7% draws at 1 min / move, more with more time,
even if stalemate is declared a win - TCEC with imposed 50 slightly unbalanced openings to prevent all draws
- Human World Championships and top tournaments
- ICCF World Championship Finals: 136 games = 127 draws + 6 white wins + 3 black wins.
table base win claims of > 50 moves without capture or pawn move allowed but do not occur - A tempo in the initial position is worth 1/3 pawn. You cannot queen a tempo.
Weakly solved means that for the initial position a strategy has been determined to achieve the game-theoretic value against any opposition.
Strongly solved is being used for a game for which such a strategy has been determined for all legal positions. For Chess this means a 32-men table base with 10^44 positions.
Weakly solving Chess needs 10^17 relevant positions.
- Samples of the 10^44 legal positions or the 10^37 positions without promotion to pieces not previously captured cannot be reached by optimal play from both sides.
- Checkers needed 10^14 positions to weakly solve and Losing Chess 10^9
- Connect Four has been solved with 9 knowledge rules.
- A strategy can be brute force, can be a set of rules, or a combination of both.
- Width w = 4 candidates moves includes the table base exact move within the top 4 engine moves is an engine of 10^9 positions / s runs for 17 s (or a desktop for 4.7 h) with 1 error in 10^20 positions
- The average length of ICCF WC games is d = 39 moves
- 1104 ICCF WC draws are perfect games with optimal play from both sides
- An upper bound U assuming no transpositions is U = ( w^(d + 1) - 1) / (w - 1)
- A lower bound L assuming full transpositions is L = e^w, regardless of d
- An estimate E is the geometric mean of the upper and lower bounds: E = sqrt (L * U)
Cloud engines can calculate a billion positions / s
A year counts 365.25 d / a * 24 h / d * 3600 s / h = 31,557,600 s / a
Thus 3 cloud engines can weakly solve Chess in 5 years
Humans are necessary to restrict the calculation to relevant positions only
This is what GM Sveshnikov said:
'Give me five years, good assistants and the latest computers
- I will bring all openings to technical endgames and "close" chess.'
The 'give me' implies 3 million $
to hire 3 (ICCF) (grand)masters 40 h / week and rent 3 cloud engines 24 / 7 for 5 years
1. Inconclusive. Imperfect play.
2. Inconclusive. Imperfect play.
3. Not to prevent all draws, because that was not happening, but to make games more exciting and add more decisive outcomes, yes.
4. Inconclusive. Imperfect play.
5. Lol, do your math again.
6. Tempo and piece valuations are derived from imperfect play.
Notice a theme?
- 10^17 has no support save for one crackpot theoretician.
- Sveshnikov made an offhand claim in an interview to impress lay people.
@5749
2. AlphaZero approaches perfect play with more time / move.
3. On TCEC:
"Statistics of the previous two superfinals show that a Leela book exit of +0.30 or lower is an almost 100% certain draw."
https://www.chessdom.com/jeroen-noomen-and-gm-matthew-sadler-announce-tcec-s21-superfinal-book-cooperation/
Of the 50 imposed openings, 19 worked as intended: a win and a draw,
22 led to two draws, 9 are busted and led to a win and a loss.
5. The math again:
136 games = 127 draws + 6 white wins + 3 black wins
https://www.iccf.com/event?id=66745
First assume Chess a white, or black win.
Try to fit a Poisson distribution of errors / game with 127 / 136 probability of an odd number of errors. It is impossible. Thus Chess is no white or black win.
Then assume Chess is a draw.
Fit a Poisson distribution of errors / game with 9 / 136 probability of an odd number of errors.
It is possible with average of 1 error per 14 games. It leads to 99.7% certainty that the 127 draws are perfect games with optimal play from both sides.
Oct 1, 2022
0
#5638
tygxc wrote:
Back on topic after the spamming spree of the trolls.
...
Back on topic would be you showing your calculation of the theoretical result and error rates in my games I posted. I think we were all waiting for that. Here they are again.
Once you've done that we can stop discussing your proposal.
It doesn't work.
You don't have to wait for my KRPPvKRP runs. Your calculation should work for any material.
You just said.
5. The math again:
136 games = 127 draws + 6 white wins + 3 black wins
https://www.iccf.com/event?id=66745
First assume Chess a white, or black win.
Try to fit a Poisson distribution of errors / game with 127 / 136 probability of an odd number of errors. It is impossible. Thus Chess is no white or black win.
Then assume Chess is a draw.
Fit a Poisson distribution of errors / game with 9 / 136 probability of an odd number of errors.
It is possible with average of 1 error per 14 games. It leads to 99.7% certainty that the 127 draws are perfect games with optimal play from both sides.
Instead of applying it to a bunch of ICCF games where they give up in the middle of nowhere and guessing, try applying the same calculation to the games I posted where we have exact information.
What should be the result of the starting position and how many errors are there in those games? We're all dying to know.
Then everyone can really start discussing the topic. You've had the longest spamming spree of anyone ever.
@5751
"You don't have to wait for my KRPPvKRP runs."
++ I wait for your runs. My calculation works for 32 to 8 men. 7 men is a good verification point.
7 men or less are strongly solved in the 7-men endgame table base.
As for your 7-men position: white is lost, so this cannot result from optimal play by both sides.
Engine: Ba5.
1 Table base: Qc1+, Engine: Qc1+ Ka2
2 Table base: Bc4+, Engine: Bc4+ Nb3
3 Table base: Qg5, Engine: Qg5 Rh1+
4 Table base: Ke2, Engine: Ke2 Re1+
5 Table base: Kf3, Engine: Kf3 Bb4
6 Table base: Qd5, Engine: Qd5 Rb1
7 Table base: Kg4, Engine: Kg4 Ka3
8 Table base: Qf3, Engine: Qf3 Rb2
9 Table base: Be6 / Kh5, Engine: Qd3 Ka4, but 50-moves rule does not apply, still OK
10 Table base: Qf3, Engine Qf3 Nd4
11 Table base: Qd1+, Engine: Qd1+ Nb3
12 Table base: Be6, Engine: Be6 Bc5
13 Table base: Qd3, Engine: Qd3 Bb4
The top 1 engine move agrees with the table base even for this not relevant position.
You're doing it right....staying active and staying connected.....and walking with "you-know-who"....that I'd probably get in trouble for mentioning here.
The mods have not been enforcing much of anything lately, so...