Chess will never be solved, here's why

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tygxc

@8962

"That hasn’t been calculated yet"
It has been calculated.

Assume chess a white win or a black win.
No plausible distribution of errors exists, so chess is a draw.

Assume Chess a draw: a plausible distribution of errors exists:

120 games with 0 errors.
15 games with 1 error.
1 game with 2 errors.
0 games with 3 or more errors.

Try yourself to come up with another plausible distribution. You will fail.

MEGACHE3SE

Dam you REALLLLLY have no idea what you are talking about. Not only do you completely misrepresent the scientific process, you fail to recognize the fundamental differences between it and a math proof.

“A voltage V accelerates an electron with charge e and mass m, what speed v does it reach? Solution: assume v << c speed of light. Newtonian mechanics apply: conservation of energy: Ve = mv²/2. Thus v = Sqrt (2Ve/m). Now check. If v <<c then the result is valid, else switch to relativity: Ve = mc²/Sqrt(1 - v²/c²).”

 that’s just plugging in an already established formula.  That’s not science, that’s homework. 


MEGACHE3SE

“Assume chess a white win or a black win.
No plausible distribution of errors exists, so chess is a draw.“

a probability distribution isn’t a proof lmao.

it just means something is likely or not.

And actually no, the current non-Poisson distribution of errors can very well be plausible. 

you assume data that doesn’t exist.  Until you reach a forced draw or win, you can’t say whether a move is an error or not.  Hence you have no error data.

MEGACHE3SE

“120 games with 0 errors.
15 games with 1 error.
1 game with 2 errors.
0 games with 3 or more errors.”
You can’t prove to me that those games had that many errors

MEGACHE3SE

Here before you cite some statistic as “proof” that those games didn’t have any errors.  I’d be willing to bet money it isn’t even an accurate statistic.  

MEGACHE3SE

I’m the case of a white or black win, Assume a Poisson distribution of errors +1. 
120 games with 1 error.
15 games with 2 errors.
1 game with 3 errors.

tronghainam2013

How to play live chess?

tygxc

@8965

"the scientific process"
++ That is one example of assuming something, then calculating based on that assumption,
then verifying the initial assumption was right, and thus validating the assumption and the calculation. It is done all the time in many sciences.

MEGACHE3SE

“Newton's mechanics was proven by its ablility to explain observed motions of planets”

 That’s objectively incorrect.  Newtons mechanics have not been, and cannot be proven mathematically.  

This is the type of lack of knowledge that I’m talking about.  I was aware of that stuff in middle school.

tygxc

@8966

"a probability distribution isn’t a proof"
++ The whole of quantum mechanics and thermodynamics depends on probability.

"you assume data that doesn’t exist" ++ No, I take real data from sufficiently large and sufficiently strong tournaments and apply statistics on those.

"Until you reach a forced draw or win, you can’t say whether a move is an error or not."
++ I can by using statistics. It is even verifyable by inspecting the games. Exactly one error can be found in the 15 decisive games, usually the last move before resignation. > 99% of the draws have no single error at all. < 1% of the draws have 2 errors that undo each other.

tygxc

@8969

"I’m the case of a white or black win, Assume a Poisson distribution of errors +1. 
120 games with 1 error.
15 games with 2 errors.
1 game with 3 errors."
That is impossible. Some of the decisive games were white wins, some are black wins.
It is not plausible either: why would there be not a single game with 0 errors?

tygxc

@8973

"I was aware of that stuff in middle school"
++ You may get aware of the truth after you study at a university.

MEGACHE3SE

“It is not plausible either: why would there be not a single game with 0 errors?”

Why not?  You can’t prove it.

MEGACHE3SE

“That is impossible. Some of the decisive games were white wins, some are black wins.”

That changes nothing lmao.  Win to a draw to a win.  2 errors.

MEGACHE3SE
tygxc wrote:

@8973

"I was aware of that stuff in middle school"
++ You may get aware of the truth after you study at a university.

“One of the most popular misconceptions about science is the notion of “scientific proof.” Although it may seem paradoxical, there is no such thing as “proof” in science, only scientific evidence” - http://ds-wordpress.haverford.edu/psych2015/projects/chapter/scientific-proof/

oh wow wouldnt you know it, I was right.

 

MEGACHE3SE

While the phrase "scientific proof" is often used in the popular media,[22] many scientists and philosophers have argued that there is really no such thing as infallibleproof. For example, Karl Popper once wrote that "In the empirical sciences, which alone can furnish us with information about the world we live in, proofs do not occur, if we mean by 'proof' an argument which establishes once and for ever the truth of a theory."[23][24] Albert Einstein said:

The scientific theorist is not to be envied. For Nature, or more precisely experiment, is an inexorable and not very friendly judge of his work. It never says "Yes" to a theory. In the most favorable cases it says "Maybe", and in the great majority of cases simply "No". If an experiment agrees with a theory it means for the latter "Maybe", and if it does not agree it means "No". Probably every theory will someday experience its "No"—most theories, soon after conception.[25]“

(Wikipedia)

 

MEGACHE3SE

Optimissed for your information Tygxc is missing the difference between a scientific understanding that the earth isn’t emscrambled eggs vs absolute proof.

MARattigan
tygxc wrote (#8952  and a nauseating number of other posts):

@8948

"assume a probability distribution as part of a proof in the first place automatically invalidates the proof?"
++ No, you see this the wrong way.
A theory is good when it can explain observed facts.
A theory is bad when an observed fact contradicts it.

I have posted you four observed facts here that contradict your theory that blunders in chess follow a Poisson distribution. As you observe that's four times as many as would be required to discredit the theory. 


Observed fact: a strong chess tournament has 136 games = 121 draws + 15 decisive games.

Assuming a Poisson distribution (an invalid assumption as shown by my examples) leads to:
Chess is a draw
120 games with 0 errors
15 games with 1 error
1 game with 2 errors that undo each other
0 games with 3 or more errors

(Therefore those are probably also invalid.)

Now try to come up with any alternative explanation

The blunders in chess follow a probability distribution similar to the distribution in the games I presented and @cobra91 measured using the tablebases.

Chess is: a draw / a white win / a black win to be determined (I have no big red telephone).
Games with 0 errors: 24
Games with 1 error: 53
Games with 2 errors: 18
Games with 3 errors: 18
Games with 4 errors: 3

Games with 5 blunders: 6

Games with 6 blunders: 0

Games with 7 blunders: 6

Games with 8-10 blunders: 0

Games with 11 blunders: 3

Games with 12 blunders: 0

Games with 13 blunders: 3

Games with more than 13 blunders: 0

Hence

Games with the wrong result 83

Games with the right result 45

Most likely conclusion Chess is a win (side undetermined).

Not a particularly convincing argument, because it assumes that the blunder rate distribution for SF15 with between 5 and 7 men on the board in a limited number of games from just four closely matched positions will match that in the tournament. A lot better than your argument nevertheless.  

 

MEGACHE3SE

https://www.forbes.com/sites/startswithabang/2017/11/22/scientific-proof-is-a-myth/?sh=7342a5742fb1

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/the-scientific-fundamentalist/200811/common-misconceptions-about-science-i-scientific-proof?amp

https://undsci.berkeley.edu/for-educators/prepare-and-plan/correcting-misconceptions/

https://gizmodo.com/science-proves-ideas-and-other-misinterpretations-of-5919210

https://www.sciencelearn.org.nz/resources/415-myths-of-the-nature-of-science

https://blogs.ams.org/phdplus/2017/04/17/math-is-like-science-only-proof-y/

 

couple of these seem to be kid oriented so you might be able to follow them Tygxc.

MEGACHE3SE
Optimissed wrote:

From your article:
"For years the media has led the public to believe many erroneous notions regarding science through its endless streams of faulty publications. Those misconceptions, in turn, have discredited science in its entirety and inspired a culture of doubt and distrust among the scientific community and the public."

That last sentence is drivel, posing as intellectually inspired opinion. Everyone, other than you, understands that scientific journalism is discredited and not science itself.

A lot of the time when they need to clear up science misconceptions it’s often to do with stuff like vaccines and climate change, where that does matter.  You are taking that quote out of context in other ways too.  A science journal isn’t part of ‘the media’