Chess will never be solved, here's why

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Avatar of Optimissed
MEGACHE3SE wrote:
Optimissed wrote:
MEGACHE3SE wrote:

tygxc i literally cant find any instance of Sveshnikov making those solvability claims.  in fact, the only instance of someone citing Sveshnikov making those claims that i can find has been just you saying stuff on different forums

Every so often, someone else comes along and takes him seriously. Why? he's a spammer who repeats his rubbish whenever a new victim is seen. One or two people hold a perpetual discussion with him because they're roughly in the same obsessive frame of mind.

i just got called out huh.  

You made a comment to me earlier. I answered you. Are you really no better than the rest of them (they are not high achievers here) or do you want to say something positive instead of just blending into the general mass of self-righteous pomposity, which exists in this thread? None of them are any good, which is why they're so full of themselves. If they had any ability they'd use it. They're all trying to impress you. Didn't you know? The whole boring, mindless bunch.

Avatar of Elroch
Optimissed wrote:
I think my own ideas are effective without any thought.
Amazingly, that was exactly how much thought they had required!
For instance, with no thought, I could define strongly solved as the set of game states for all positions and weakly solved as the set of game states for all positions corresponding to the ultra-weak solution. That took me a second to come up with [...]
If only you had spent another few years to realise that the lack of existence of an ultra-weak solution for chess (never mind "the ultraweak solution", which entails a remarkable implicit claim of uniqueness) makes your definition null. It's like defining tigers as the subset of yetis that have stripes.
Avatar of MARattigan
shangtsung111 wrote:
Elroch wrote:
 

i don't know that tygxc guy much. what is his expertise?

Just look at a few posts. You will see his expertise.

 

Avatar of MARattigan

No, he pretends to be a mathematician. 

Avatar of MARattigan

Look at his "calculations".

Avatar of DiogenesDue
Optimissed wrote:

A genuine person, in the way of being a genuine intellectual or academic, wouldn't respond to challenges the way you do and wouldn't form alliances which are not to further knowledge and ideas, but power.

In no way do you behave like an intellectual. You do not respect ideas, other than your own. You don't support the ideal that people should be encouraged to think freely and well, and for themselves. And yet you are the best example of a person who could behave like that if he wished and chose, because you have the capability but not the intention. Others, whom you enjoy your merry-go-round with, are definitely less capable than you. I think you ought to fulfil your potential and not throw it away.

There's no alliances.  Tygxc is wrong.  You are wrong in your support of him and in your fight against the accepted terminology.  That does not make everybody else an "alliance", sorry, it just makes you two wrong wink.png.

Avatar of MARattigan
shangtsung111 wrote:

but cant be just someone quoting from famous scientists.because you all are taking him seriously

We're not taking him seriously, merely trying to stop him spreading crap on the internet.

Avatar of MARattigan
spaghetsie wrote:

I don't even know what this thread has degenerated into but I guess I could pitch my two cents.

The question whether chess can (theoretically) be solved (=outcome is clear from any position) can be easily answered. There is a finite amount of positions. I hope nobody's arguing that. On top of that if you accept that there is a finite amount of moves from any position until an outcome is reached, which is true with n-fold repetion and n-moves rule, one could theoretically check each position one by one, playing all possible ways the position can develop.
This would solve chess.

Now, realisticaly, that's obviously not possible. Not even with supercomputers.

That seems to be reasonable, but it rules out the possibility of a solution by human ingenuity, which is still far in advance of any AI or supercomputer.

Avatar of DiogenesDue
MARattigan wrote:

That seems to be reasonable, but it rules out the possibility of a solution by human ingenuity, which is still far in advance of any AI or supercomputer.

A bold comment given that ChatGPT is now passing doctorate and law exams happy.png.

Avatar of MARattigan
btickler wrote:
MARattigan wrote:

I have some quibbles with the number (it depends on what you mean by "position"), but it's adequate for discussing solutions to basic rules chess (suitably amended to be soluble). But

1. It's not 10^44.

2. It's not adequate for discussing solutions to competition rules chess  (suitably amended to be soluble).

Below are two partial games

The final positions (shown) in both games are mate in 16 for White in both basic rules chess (suitably amended to be soluble) and competition rules chess (suitably amended to be soluble).

In basic rules chess (suitably amended to be soluble) any solution of the final position in the first game is a solution of the final position in the second game and vice versa.

In competition rules chess (suitably amended to be soluble) any solution of the final position in the first game must begin with 35. Ra1 and any solution of the final position in the second game must begin with 35. Rb2, so the positions have no solution in common.

The FENs for the two positions are identical.

Tromp therefore counts the two positions as one. 

He also counts any positions with the same diagram and side to move but ply counts  in the range 69-150 as the same as the two shown, because he ignores the ply count, though all those are drawn.

The top Nalimov move shown by Wilhelm and the top move shown on the Syzygy site is Ka2 for both positions, which draws immediately by triple repetition in either. (Another reason why @tygxc's point 3 is wrong.)

It would be possible in principle to produce a tablebase that took into account the kind of difference I've just exhibited, but a tablebase for just KR v K may be beyond our current resources. (It might be possible to solve it as a mathematical puzzle using one's biological computer - I'll need to think about it some more).

An interesting problem you might like to try, is to produce the lowest upper bound you can find for the number of competition rules chess (suitably amended to be soluble) positions in KRvK, where positions are regarded as the same when the same set of legal continuations is possible for each. I asked @tygxc earlier, but, natuarally, he didn't even get as far as "++". He just repeats, "there are 10^17 relevant positions pretty Polly pretty Polly pretty Polly ...".

Why don't you submit this to Tromp?  There's a bounty of up to $256.  I'll only take a 20% commission ...

Of course, I know that there will continue to be some incremental improvements and the number should drop further.  Before Tromp the best number was 10^46.7.  Do I think such improvements will ever take the number under 10^40?  No.  I have seen discounted studies (prior to Tromp's work) that claimed 10^43.  

Until then, I will stick with 10^44 as the number of unique positions to traverse, knowing there might be somewhat less, but no more.  

I'm sure Tromp is perfectly aware of what I said. His bounty has zilch to do with competition rules; he calculates only basic rules positions (very well).

You don't appear to have realised that there's a difference between basic rules chess positions and competition rules chess positions. Reread what I wrote.

And Tromp still didn't say 10^44 if you read his postings. He doesn't think it's somewhat less; he thinks it's almost certainly more.

Avatar of Elroch

As I see it. @tygxc is a chess player who thinks the reasoning associated with playing chess will do for solving it - it's all chess, right?

Avatar of MARattigan
btickler wrote:
MARattigan wrote:

That seems to be reasonable, but it rules out the possibility of a solution by human ingenuity, which is still far in advance of any AI or supercomputer.

A bold comment given that ChatGPT is now passing doctorate and law exams .

Not at all.

I last heard Hamlet's soliloquy playing the incidental music for a school production of the same, some years ago now, but I can still remember it a lot better than ChatGPT.

What significant theorems have been proved so far by AI?

And obviously supercomputers are just faster shop assistants.

Avatar of DiogenesDue
MARattigan wrote:

Not at all.

I last heard Hamlet's soliloquy playing the incidental music for a school production of the same, some years ago now, but I can still remember it a lot better than ChatGPT.

What significant theorems have been proved so far by AI?

And obviously supercomputers are just faster shop assistants.

Nevertheless, those shop assistants already have surpassed human capabilities on the chess playing front.  The argument that they are merely machines that don't understand what they are doing is semantics.  We are also machines that don't really know what we are doing wink.png.  We create ways of describing what we think we are doing, but since we only perceive a tiny fraction of what is actually going on, those descriptions are essentially as bad as Chess.com's analysis narratives ("strong move that maintains an initiative", etc.).

Self-awareness is real, but also limited.

Avatar of DiogenesDue
MARattigan wrote:

I'm sure Tromp is perfectly aware of what I said. His bounty has zilch to do with competition rules; he calculates only basic rules positions (very well).

You don't appear to have realised that there's a difference between basic rules chess positions and competition rules chess positions. Reread what I wrote.

And Tromp still didn't say 10^44 if you read his postings. He doesn't think it's somewhat less; he thinks it's almost certainly more.

We discussed this before.  I don't care about competition rules.  I only care about basic chess.  Solving chess = solving basic chess.  If the solution only works for tournament rules, which are chess variants, by definition, it's not a solution of chess.  So I do know there's a difference, and the former is worthless to solve, because competition rules are subject to much more frequent change than the basic rules.  This seems pretty obvious.

As for Tromp, I am fine with using his 95% confidence interval along with 10^44, which he does say.  The order of magnitude is the only important consideration.  If you are perhaps kibitzing over 4.59*10^44 (which is 10^44.6, as I pointed out), then don't bother.  It's useless to argue that the number is not exact when we already agree it's not exact by accepting the 95% confidence interval.

Avatar of MARattigan
btickler wrote:
MARattigan wrote:

Not at all.

I last heard Hamlet's soliloquy playing the incidental music for a school production of the same, some years ago now, but I can still remember it a lot better than ChatGPT.

What significant theorems have been proved so far by AI?

And obviously supercomputers are just faster shop assistants.

Nevertheless, those shop assistants already have surpassed human capabilities on the chess playing front. 

Sometimes. I can crap all over SF with NNUE in a KNNvKP position because I understand it. SF with NNUE doesn't. SF with NNUE understands nothing whatsoever, in any position.

The argument that they are merely machines that don't understand what they are doing is semantics.  We are also machines that don't really know what we are doing .  We create ways of describing what we think we are doing, but since we only perceive a tiny fraction of what is actually going on, those descriptions are essentially as bad as Chess.com's analysis narratives ("strong move that maintains an initiative", etc.).

Really nothing like as bad as that (excepting @Optimissed).

Self-awareness is real, but also limited.

It's nowhere near as limited as current AI. We don't have anything yet that can clean the toilets without more shepherding than is worth the effort.

Whether it's posssible is an interesting question (to humans that is). Have you read Penrose's "The Emperor's New Mind"?

 

 

Avatar of DiogenesDue
MARattigan wrote:

Really nothing like as bad as that (excepting @Optimissed).

Self-awareness is real, but also limited.

It's nowhere near as limited as current AI. We don't have anything yet that can clean the toilets without more shepherding than is worth the effort.

Whether it's posssible is an interesting question (to humans that is). Have you read Penrose's "The Emperor's New Mind"?

Optimissed is a very good example of my point. 

AI has reached the current state from a starting point less than a century ago.  Take AlphaZero's machine learning in 4 hours to exceed centuries of humanity's built up knowledge of chess as an example.  That's the kind of curve you can expect from AI as well relative to humanity.  All else being equal, evolution via trial and error is never as fast as purposeful design.

Judging chess engines or AI by human standards of understanding (which effectively translates to "can it explain what it does in a way humans understand and articulate its choices") doesn't really mean much.  

Penrose is just another witchdoctor trying to hold on to his reputation in the face of modern medicine, at least in terms of the message of this work.  The fact that quantum entanglement gives possible room to posit that self awareness equals a human soul once again doesn't mean it's true.  Like chess being a draw, much scientific evidence leans in the other direction and has eliminated possibilities, not allowed for new ones.

It's always funny to see scientists stop just short of declaring that human beings are not special and uniquely gifted in the universe wink.png.  It's like they cannot make that last leap away from man being the center of the universe.

I like this take on it:

"The Emperor's New Mind does contain much interesting background material on computation, physics, mathematics, and other topics, but all this background material is simply to prepare the reader to understand Penrose's main argument. The main argument boils down to this: the human brain may exploit certain quantum mechanical phenomena, key to intelligence and/or consciousness, that effectively make the brain's activity uncomputable, and hence beyond the reach of Turing machines/classical computers. To allow for this, Penrose suggests that current models of quantum physics are flawed, and hints at how they might be modified.

Although Penrose's expertise and authority on physics is undisputed, many have found the ideas suggested in The Emperor's New Mind unconvincing and unnecessary, though admittedly plausible. Furthermore, even if Penrose turned out to be right, there is no reason why quantum computers would not be able to exploit the same quantum phenomena that the brain does, and thus become just as intelligent as humans. Thus, The Emperor's New Mind is really an argument against strong AI in classical computers, not against strong AI in artificially created systems."

Avatar of BoardMonkey

You guys are all wrong. Chess.com could solve chess tomorrow if they weren't so busy trying to solve their own issues. When their bots aren't playing chess, they're hard at work on the solution. Why do you think there are so many of them? Then these Chess will never be solved threads will be moot.

Avatar of MEGACHE3SE
shangtsung111 wrote:
BoardMonkey wrote:

You guys are all wrong. Chess.com could solve chess tomorrow if they weren't so busy trying to solve their own issues. When their bots aren't playing chess, they're hard at work on the solution. Why do you think there are so many of them? Then these Chess will never be solved threads will be moot.

martin bot could do it alone in a week,if given a chance.

by god martin will find that mate in one

Avatar of BoardMonkey
shangtsung111 wrote:
BoardMonkey wrote:

You guys are all wrong. Chess.com could solve chess tomorrow if they weren't so busy trying to solve their own issues. When their bots aren't playing chess, they're hard at work on the solution. Why do you think there are so many of them? Then these Chess will never be solved threads will be moot.

martin bot could do it alone in a week,if given a chance.

I forgot the MUA HA HA!!

Avatar of Optimissed

<<<<The argument that they are merely machines that don't understand what they are doing is semantics.  We are also machines that don't really know what we are doing .  We create ways of describing what we think we are doing, but since we only perceive a tiny fraction of what is actually going on, those descriptions are essentially as bad as Chess.com's analysis narratives ("strong move that maintains an initiative", etc.).

Really nothing like as bad as that (excepting @Optimissed).>>>>


I would think that's very accurate in that MOST of us don't know what we're doing. We aren't creative in that way and apparent creativity only consists of rearrangements of existing arrangements, like slightly reordering the sequence of notes in a piece of music. I know a rather rough Wiganer who's a  flea-market dealer, dying of cancer. He can spontaneously compose Rachmaninov-like pieces at the piano because he has a very good memory. He claims he had a photographic memory and I believe him. He can play to near concert level. But it's all a rearrangement of previous perceptions and memories. He owned dozens of pianos when I first met him, 25 years ago. I sold his Steinway for him when he was short of cash and didn't want to sell one of his houses.

Anyway, enough about my mother-in-law. He doesn't do new stuff. Anyone who can really think for themselves is a rarity and as such will always encounter a lot of resistance from self-appointed guardians of the status-quo, of which thread has more than its compliment because they tend to stick together and work in packs. (Very much an ego thing and they use self-protective mechanisms, of which we see a lot here.) It's interesting that there are informal regulatory bodies in every field of human creativity, of which these forums are one. I think there must be a psycho-dynamic reason, embedded in the human psyche as an instinct towards conventionality and a rejection of the new, which genuinely provides stability. In all aspects of human society and endeavour, there is tension between those two aspects of human nature and it's necessary for our survival and the survival of our societies that new ideas are resisted. So you're only fulfilling your appointed roles. That is, pretending to be creative and actually attempting to veto it. It's only to be expected. I ought to write a book on human thoughts and instincts. Maybe I will.

I once worked out that probably there are no more than 100,000 people at any one time, in the World, who are truly brilliant and who lead thought rather than follow it. As I pointed out, they often encounter resistance and occasionally they overcome it and completely change how people think, usually with the aid of a new product, which can consist of, say, an artistic movement or anything like that.