Chess will never be solved, here's why

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Elroch

And here is another example of @tygxc stating a falsehood that has already been pointed out.

He starts by suggesting ignoring 1999 out of 2000 positions with 3 or more promotions to pieces not previously captured can be ignored. This is absurd given that such positions even occur in the tiny master game database comprising less than 1 billion positions, a minuscule fraction of his own underestimate of the positions needed to solve chess.

So not only is the reduction absurd based on the data, it forgets that you don't find extremes in a tiny sample (like a billion positions). I feel here, @tygxc is genuinely deluded, confusing the fact that small samples can be good for estimating averages and not understanding that this does not extend to extremes (because extremes occur in such a small fraction of the data - there could even be just one example!) that they are not going to be visible in small samples at all.

And then, having wrongly argued for a 2000-fold reduction in the number of positions, he says to ignore 1999 in each 1000 of those positions by ignoring his previous reduction and using a position count for a game like chess where promotion to pieces not previously captured (an entirely arbitrary restriction on legal moves with no logical basis) is entirely illegal.

Counting is important. Being honest is too. Improvement is needed on both.

Elroch
MARattigan wrote:
qualcuno6800654 wrote:

How do we have the number of legal chess positions?

Tromp has the most accurate estimate here.

But it's only for basic rules (no account of 50 move rule or triple repetition rules).

Nobody has attempted an answer for competition rules, but it's VASTLY bigger (vastly bigger also than the number of ways of shuffling a deck of 52 playing cards).

@tygxc finds it more convenient to overlook the difference.

As a detached discussion of the facts, that remains valid. But it also remains true that it is very likely irrelevant to the weak solution of chess - the topic of this forum.

If it were feasible, the first variant of chess to solve would be one without any 50 move rule. All the two strategies to achieve this have to do is avoid a basic rules loss. This would achieved a la Schaeffer by constructing a complete proof tree with all leaf nodes being tablebase wins or draws (and many loops back to positions already covered).

The proof would not explicitly use a 3-fold repetition rule either, but games played according to one of the strategies will be guaranteed to reach one by the pigeon hole principle (if another satisfactory terminator is not reached).

The point is that if such a solution is a draw it will be fully adequate for FIDE rules too. The only thing that would change is some games ending earlier with 50 move draws.

[Note that pedantically we don't know the value of basic rules chess and we don't know that this form of chess has the same value as chess with some drawing rules, but it seems extremely likely that both have the same value because of the empirical rarity of positions requiring a relaxation of the 50 move rule].

MARattigan
tygxc wrote:

@14096

...

"@tygxc finds it more convenient to overlook the difference."
++ No. I adhere to the definition of a position according to 9.2.3

Exactly what I mean. The specification (not a definition) of when two positions are to be considered equal for the purposes ot the 3/5-fold repetition rules doesn't contain enough information to determine the possible legal continuations from positions in a game played under competition rules, so can't be used, as you do, to determine the number of nodes in the game tree under competition rules.

Elroch
MARattigan wrote:
tygxc wrote:

@14096

...

"@tygxc finds it more convenient to overlook the difference."
++ No. I adhere to the definition of a position according to 9.2.3

Exactly what I mean. The specification (not a definition) of when two positions are to be considered equal for the purposes ot the 3/5-fold repetition rules doesn't contain enough information to determine the possible legal continuations from positions in a game played under competition rules, so can't be used, as you do, to determine the number of nodes in the game tree under competition rules.

Which doesn't matter to a weak solution (if basic chess is a draw). The number of positions that matters to such a solution is the number of those where ply count and repetitions are ignored, as addressed by Tromp.

Strong solution of chess is a different matter, much further removed from practicality (and the numbers of positions only matter to practicality).

Elroch
qualcuno6800654 wrote:

How do we have the number of legal chess positions?

Good question. A good estimate for this (with known uncertainty) is known because of a collaborative project involving John Tromp, Peter Österlund and others.

In brief, the project first constructed a way to number all random arrangements of feasible combinations of material on the board, then randomly sampled a subset of positions and examined them in detail to find if they were reachable in a legal game of chess. The randomness of the sampling gave an unbiased estimator of the fraction of all random scatterings of pieces that were legal positions, with known uncertainty. Multiplying the two gave the number of legal chess positions and the uncertainty of this, improving on earlier estimates.

tygxc

@14100

Diagram = placement of chess men on the board
Position = diagram + side to move + castling rights + en passant flag
Node = position + history + provisional heuristic evaluation

Generally 1 diagram = 2 positions = 1 node
When 1 king is in check: 2 diagrams = 2 positions = 1 node
In case of up/down symmetry: 1 diagram = 2 positions = 1 node

tygxc

@14098

"you don't find extremes in a tiny sample"
++ Just looking at the 3 diagrams shows how absurd the positions counted by Tromp are. 
That is why 10^38 is a more realistic estimate, based on An upper bound for the number of chess diagrams without promotion.

"a game like chess where promotion to pieces not previously captured is entirely illegal"
++ A game like chess where underpromotion to pieces not previously captured is illegal would produce exactly the same master games with exactly the same outcome.
The vast majority of positions as counted by Tromp could never ever result from optimal play.

Elroch
tygxc wrote:

@14098

"you don't find extremes in a tiny sample"
++ Just looking at the 3 diagrams shows how absurd the positions counted by Tromp are.

No, it shows how absurd you (a weak player) think three positions selected by Tromp are. There is no legitimate generalisation or conclusion. 
That is why 10^38 is a more realistic estimate, based on An upper bound for the number of chess diagrams without promotion.

Which is relevant only to a different game to chess. Your foolish choice of number even excludes many master chess games.

"a game like chess where promotion to pieces not previously captured is entirely illegal"
++ A game like chess where underpromotion to pieces not previously captured is illegal would produce exactly the same master games with exactly the same outcome.

That looks like a deliberate deception - you are trying to conceal your exclusion of positions with extra queens.

The vast majority of positions as counted by Tromp could never ever result from optimal play.

How relevant do you think the subjective guesses of a very weak chess player are?

tygxc

@14105

"how absurd you (a weak player) think three positions selected by Tromp are"
++ He did not select, he showed 3 random samples.
If you cannot see these 3 positions are absurd, then you are a very weak player.
I even proved none of those 3 can result from optimal play by both sides.

"Which is relevant only to a different game to chess" ++ The different game would lead to exactly the same master games with exactly the same outcomes.

"excludes many master chess games" ++ I know of 1 master game with 6 queens.
In the tournament hall of a swiss tournament of 400 players it sometimes sometimes happens that a player seeks arbiter assistance to supply a second queen per 6.11.2. Master games need no more pieces than are in their luxury box of 34 chess men including 2 spare queens.

"a game like chess where promotion to pieces not previously captured is entirely illegal"
++ A game like chess where 3.7.3.4 is modified to make underpromotion to pieces not previously captured illegal would produce exactly the same master games with exactly the same outcome.

"your exclusion of positions with extra queens"
++ I included extra queens by going from 10^37 to 10^38.

Elroch
tygxc wrote:

@14105

"how absurd you (a weak player) think three positions selected by Tromp are"
++ He did not select, he showed 3 random samples.

That is a guess without a basis. But it doesn't really matter since it is a sample of 3, so has no useful power to generalise.

If you cannot see these 3 positions are absurd, then you are a very weak player.

I was for a few months the highest rated daily chess player on chess.com. No engines, no tablebases. Lots of diagram editing.

I also understand that very unusual things happen occasionally. And in a tredecillion positions, the extremes can be very extreme.

I even proved none of those 3 can result from optimal play by both sides.

If you managed another 4.6 x 10^44 positions you would be able to justify your fudging. How long does each one take for you?

"Which is relevant only to a different game to chess" ++ The different game would lead to exactly the same master games with exactly the same outcomes.

False. As many master games show.

"excludes many master chess games" ++ I know of 1 master game with 6 queens.

Now engage brain. If that happens once in less than 10^7 games, that might happen 10^10 times in 10^17 games (more relevant is 10^30 games, but this suffices to make the point that you can expect much more extreme things happening).

And an enormous amount will happen in an enormous sample that has ZERO examples in master chess (because of the tiny sample). This shouldn't really need explaining, but it does.

++ I included extra queens by going from 10^37 to 10^38.

No you didn't. This is a long way short.

DiogenesDue
Optimissed wrote:

I think we have to add to the second conclusion "in most cases". "Most" may be "nearly all" and in practice you may be correct, although a situation where one player sacrifices three minor pieces for a pawn and for piece promotion springs to mind. The material points count is about equal but if the promoting player can't promote to a queen, it isn't. They may have to promote to a bishop.

I know such a position where no rooks have been exchanged is unlikely but the addition of the three words, "in most cases" should in most cases sort it for you. However, when I was talking to the same person, I used the phrase "infinite for practical purposes" or some such and was met by blank incomprehension.

Due to that we have to accept that it doesn't matter what one says or which words one uses here, where the level of comprehension among the trolls is so low. This is a working day so it will be the one and only post at least until later. Any comments from trolls can be ignored because they rarely make sense. I read only your post.

You can't add "in most cases" and then still claim chess is already solved by the ICCF wink.png. You are agreeing with "the trolls", just gnash your teeth and accept it.

MEGACHE3SE
tygxc wrote:

@14092

"every finite number is TINY compared to just about every finite number"
++ The number of legal chess positions 4.85*10^44 is tiny
compared to the number of ways to shuffle a deck of 52 playing cards: 52! = 8*10^67.

this has literally nothing to do with any argument or statement made. it advances no train of thought. why are you bringing this up. are you just trying to sound smart? it's not working.

MEGACHE3SE

tygxc the intial search space contains unoptimal play from both sides. a weak solution contains unoptimal play from one side, and the pruning prunes unoptimal play from the other side. the initial search space must contain unoptimal play from both sides.

DiogenesDue
Optimissed wrote:

Dio, I know you can't help it.

You're losing the plot more and more, however. Your posts are becoming more and more irrelevant to anything here.

The ridiculousness of you accusing anyone of losing the plot is not lost on most of the posters here.

You didn't address the point because you can't.

Elroch

I feel this is not a terribly productive discussion at present!

DiogenesDue
Elroch wrote:

I feel this is not a terribly productive discussion at present!

When has it ever been? This is not a terribly well run set of forums at present. The content of the forums in general reflects this.

DiogenesDue
Optimissed wrote:

A Dio-point is an exchange that someone else won, plus a claim to the contrary by you, close brackets, multiplied by minus one, btw.

Keep on creating more elaborate constructs to defend yourself from reality...everyone can see through you.

DiogenesDue
Optimissed wrote:

You definitely have it the wrong way round and you forget I can see through you and I know very well you're constantly trying it on. Even elrOch and playerafar are more subtle than you can manage and it's clear to 99% of ppl who know you that you and reality are strangers to one-another. The rest are probably tailors' dummies.

Go back to drinking second hand booze. You've written enough anecdotes about it...

I am not trying to be subtle, by the way. That would seem obvious to most.

DiogenesDue
Optimissed wrote:
DiogenesDue wrote:
Optimissed wrote:

You definitely have it the wrong way round and you forget I can see through you and I know very well you're constantly trying it on. Even elrOch and playerafar are more subtle than you can manage and it's clear to 99% of ppl who know you that you and reality are strangers to one-another. The rest are probably tailors' dummies.

Go back to drinking second hand booze. You've written enough anecdotes about it...

I am not trying to be subtle, by the way. That would seem obvious to most.

You're a bit of a snotty little so and so aren't you? Think you would say that to me face to face?

You wouldn't would you. Hiding on the internet, that's the way for your type. Did you know that our crown jewels are second hand? Do you have a dollar in your wallet? That's second hand, you little squirt. Dare say you are too.

I would have no problem saying it to your face. Unless you are taller than 6'3", "little so and so" is not going to apply. Your crown jewels *are* second hand:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x73PkUvArJY

Elroch

Does malt whiskey change with age in the bottle?

"Second hand" does not really apply if it hasn't been opened!