#1943
"In fact @tygxc appears, on the whole, to propose solving the competition rules game, though he's a little evasive on that question." ++ No, I have said several times: forget the 50 moves rule. The 50 moves rule is a practical rule to make games and tournaments end in a reasonable time, but for the purpose of solving chess it can be considered unwritten.
"The factor "100" here represents positions with the same diagram and side to move but with different ply counts (which can have different win/draw/loss evaluations"
++ No, forget the 50 moves rule. Also there are not twice as much positions as diagrams. For every position with black to move there is a diagram with white to move. Even more: for every position with lost castling rights there is a left / right image. So each diagram represents 2 positions.
Example:
Position = diagram with white to move.
Exactly the same with black to move:
Exactly the same position, white to move:
"If you look at the SF14 v. SF14 KNNKP games in this post SF14 blunders between 1 and 9 times under basic rules in each case."
I like this argument in principle, but there are 2 major arguments against it.
1) You talk about Stockfish 14 on a desktop of say 10^6 nodes/s for what time per move?
I talk about Stockfish on a 10^9 nodes/s cloud engine and at 60 hours/move.
2) You found some instances where the Stockfish top move was a mistake as indicated by the table base, but did you find any incidence where the Stockfish top 1 move, the Stockfish top 2 move, the Stockfish top 3 move as well as the Stockfish top 4 move were all errors?
#1941
"If you estimate a search space of 10^37 positions, are you saying that policy could miss up to 10^17 positions leading to a different game value than that provided by the proof tree?"
++ No, I am saying that weakly solving chess requires only considering 10^17 positions hence at 1 error per 10^20 positions there remains only 0.1% chance of having made an error.
So how do you explain 5 blunders in 79 positions in the sixth game here? Was it just rotten luck?
(We can look at the difference between 10^17 and 100 x 2.9 x 10^44 x 3^(100 x 2.9 x 10^44) later.)