Do you think Hans Is cheating?

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PawnTsunami
btickler wrote:

If the prep was leaked, that would still be cheating for Niemann to accept the information.

That would most certainly be an ethics violation, but I do not think it would fall under the same realm as cheating.  That would likely go before Peter Heine Neilson's favorite committee to figure out what to do.

x-9009454932
btickler hat geschrieben:
ThunderAtSea wrote:

Alright, so here is what you guys don't understand:

 

It is not difficult to bypass the anti-cheating measures, both Daniel Naroditsky and Nikita Vitiugov stated. The big cheating scandal was not triggered by Magnus Carlsen, however, but mainly by Hikaru Nakamura's live streams. This does not necessarily mean that Nakamura is to blame; he only interpreted Magnus Carlsens tweet.

 

Either Hans Niemann is not cheating, or he is betting everything on not being discovered. What is strange, however, is that Hans Niemann has been completely lost at several points in all games since the streaming delay. You don't need an engine to cheat, but maybe just a team that dictates good or logical moves. The Eastern-European-like accent is also funny, considering which players are currently active and which are not. And I'm not saying that Sergey Karjakin or any other Russian player is dictating all the moves to Hans Niemann from somewhere in Moscow. He could simply have worked with or been coached by Russian players. Ian Nepomniatchi's interview would support that because he would probably have known about it. If that is the case, he would probably change federations as soon as possible. He is also a good player. You would only have to tell him if he looks at the correct piece to move, for example. This would also be possible with a non-verbal signal. He also played his "preparation" very slowly. 

 

Magnus Carlsen's tweet, however, might not have been intended offensively. Since the members of his team don't know anymore either, he likely had a personal problem with the organizers. He could also just have Corona or a family problem. There are also such things as confidentiality agreements. After all, Magnus Carlsen is still the face of the PlayMagnus cooperation which is being sold right now. Especially at this time, a company cannot afford to have a marketing problem. So if Magnus Carlsen had a terminal illness, for example, practically the value of the company would also drop. Besides, if anything else were the case, he would have spoken up or simply said nothing at all. If anything of the sort is the case, the victim is not Hans Niemann but Magnus Carlsen. Imagine you had a serious problem and everyone expected you to apologize over some petty internet drama.

 

We can pretty much assume that Magnus Carlsen is probably tied to a contract right now. Moreover, we know that he strictly separates his private life from his chess career, for example as far as his girlfriend is concerned. Moreover, he does not even have to be tied down by his companies, but also by the tournament. The players had to sign contracts – we know that to be a well-established fact. If it became clear that one could leave the tournament so easily, the tournament would of course have a problem. So no matter how big Magnus Carlsen's problem is, he shouldn't say anything.

 

If Magnus Carlsen thought Hans was cheating, he wouldn't have left the tournament. Both Laurent Fressinet and Jan Gustafsson knew nothing more about the affair than anyone else, even though they are on Magnus Carlsen's team. But who we haven't heard from yet are Daniil Dubov and Jorden van Foreest. It is possible that Daniil Dubov or other Russian players worked with Hans Niemann although this is merely a speculation. If Hans Niemann then prepared for a sideline that Magnus Carlsen's team may have prepared in the past, I would be at least suspicious if I were Magnus Carlsen. The story with the accent underlines such a theory.

 

Without any insights it's hard to evaluate the outcome – on and off the board.

Ummm...the Russian conspiracy theories are just silly.  Apply Occam's Razor.

A member of Carlsen's team could have tipped his hand in advance, but if so it's highly unlikely to be tied to some national federation's plans.  I will say this, though:  If the prep was leaked, that would still be cheating for Niemann to accept the information.

 

Yeah but weirder things happened. Either that or he has a coach with a similiar accent.

DiogenesDue
PawnTsunami wrote:
btickler wrote:

If the prep was leaked, that would still be cheating for Niemann to accept the information.

That would most certainly be an ethics violation, but I do not think it would fall under the same realm as cheating.  That would likely go before Peter Heine Neilson's favorite committee to figure out what to do.

I didn't say it would be necessarily actionable.  I said it would be cheating, and I stand by that assessment.

DiogenesDue
ThunderAtSea wrote:

Yeah but weirder things happened. Either that or he has a coach with a similiar accent.

The accent is nothing.  As someone who has lived overseas, I can tell you that people change their speech patterns to make things understandable for those they are speaking to most often.  The "accent" rebounds quickly when the audience changes.  I don't know why the accent is even being brought up.

Decades ago when people were ripping Madonna for having picked up a British accent, they didn't understand how this works, either.  It's a provincial American bias.  One of my siblings lives in London, and thus has a bit of an accent now.

I will leave you with Mark Twain's quote:

"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime."

KevinOSh

All that talk about his accent was the toxic side of social media coming out. It has nothing whatsoever to do with cheating, it is just a nasty personal attack. It is hate.

KevinOSh

There are interviews of Magnus Carlsen where he says he is not a good loser, that he hates losing and doesn't deal with it so well.

When he lost to David Howells as a kid, he did not speak to him again for 7 years. Against Niemann it was even worse for him because he fully expected to beat him and then after he lost Niemann went on camera and said "he should be embarrassed because he lost to an idiot like me." And Niemann doesn't really think of himself as an idiot, but privately Carlsen does. So hearing this was too much for him to take.

And because he knew that Niemann had cheated online in the past, he knew that no evidence would be needed to make his life hell. All was needed was a few private words to the tournament officials and a video clip of Jose Mourinho and the internet mob would do all the rest. He also knew that the deal with chess.com was not finalized and that chess.com would not want to take a position that risked jeopardizing that deal. So chess.com was put into a difficult situation where it just wanted the whole thing to quietly go away.  

KevinOSh
Steven-ODonoghue wrote:

I certainly hope he is cheating, since I have immense respect for both Magnus and chess.com, and if Hans turns out to be clean this will be a total disaster for both.

If he were cheating he would have been caught with an ear piece or some other device or accomplice by now.

This has set off a bunch of wild conspiracy theories which by definition cannot be disproven. No matter how many checks he does, people will come up with ever crazier theories of how has has evaded security for so many years.

For many people conspiracy theories are addictive because it is much more interesting than believing he is just a bloke who made a huge mistake by cheating when he was a kid, then worked very hard to improve and gave up his social life completely just chess, chess, chess to get better. Then he played a game where Carlsen played so poorly that Niemann was able to make 3 mistakes and still win a game.

sleazymate
Why have we not heard from Magnus yet with some form of clarification or from chess.com? I find this the worst part of the story.
KevinOSh

Several amateur players have cheated against Magnus online and he dealt with it by subtle insinuation such as "he played very very very well for his level". That was enough for the audience to understand what he was thinking and came off more classy than making a direct cheating accusation.

However this situation with Niemann is different. It is a much bigger story and everyone knows the identity of the person he is accusing. Most people didn't even know who Hans was before the tournament started and now they know him as a "cheater".

dude0812

Probably not, but I can't know for sure. Innocent until proven guilty. Also, he passed through all the metal detection, all eyes were on him, there was delay in broadcast and yet nothing against the rules was caught by anyone.

viennacaver
btickler wrote:

If the prep was leaked, that would still be cheating for Niemann to accept the information.

Caruana's prep for the 2018 match was revealed by a video, and Carlsen (wo confirmed he knew about it) did not hesitate to enter that line.

lfPatriotGames

Cheating is such a vague term.  I say once a cheater always a cheater. Especially after only a few years. After maybe 30 or 40 years and he has proven he has changed his ways then MAYBE I could see a reformed heart. But after two years and claiming to now suddenly be honest? No, I don't see it happening.

But miracles happen. And 30 years from now we'll see. 

PopcornSC
PawnTsunami wrote:

Regarding the OP's question:

1. There is a lot of circumstantial evidence that gives reason for people to be suspicious.  Hikaru went through it pretty well the other day (and even noted that it was all circumstantial).  That does not mean he is cheating, but it certainly justifies people being skeptical.

2. His rant yesterday was a masterclass in manipulation, which does not go well towards helping his case.  He claims he "only cheated twice", yet he has had at least 2 accounts banned on chess.com and at least one on LiChess - all within the last 3 years (age 16-19).  Does this mean he cheated OTB?  No, but again, it goes to fuel the skepticism.

3.  His analysis has been odd to say the least.  The whole idea of "I'm just winning here, I don't even need to give variations" is laughable to even class players.  To give you an example, I was playing with two CMs last night (both ~2190 USCF) going over the game with Firouzja at the position he played Qg3.  One CM played Qg3 as well and asserted that White is just winning (same thought process as Hans).  We (the other CM and myself) then played it out against him several times and Black was winning every time with the exception of when White plays the h4-h5 idea (in which case he gets only a slight initiative).  Asserting White is "just winning" in a line where he has to walk a tightrope to avoid losing instantly and saying "I don't even need to give variations" is beyond odd.  Does this mean he cheated?  Again, no, but it adds more fuel to the skepticism.

There has been no evidence to concretely prove Hans is doing anything fishy, so if this was a court of law, he would be found not guilty with what we know currently.  However, if you are putting money down on which way this goes:

  1. Hans has gone from a plateau in the 2400-2500 range to 2700+ faster than some of the best prodigies we've seen (Magnus, Firouzja, Gukesh, Sarin, etc).
  2. Hans has a recent history of shady things online.
  3. Hans played 4 members of the 2800+ club in a row, and was crushing all 4 of them (going 3/4 with no losses - and easily could have been 4/4).
  4. Several of the top players have been skeptical of Hans for several years.

So, if you had to put money down on him being a cheat or an intuitive chess genius, it would probably be safer bet that he was cheating rather than he is an intuitive chess genius on the rise.

That is not circumstantial evidence. The only kind of circumstantial evidence that could exist would be a statistical analysis of his moves showing strong correlation between different engines or a cheating device being found with his fingerprints. Past behavior is not circumstantial evidence. Even if that behavior is a pattern and not a one time thing.

Also, at least one of his bans was a joke ban because he was joking about giving out diamond memberships. I have no information on any bans he may have received on lichess.

kAtalan_csaT

I support Hans Niemann!

I do not believe he cheated. That Tweet of Carlsen was very bad sportsmanship!

DiogenesDue
viennacaver wrote:
btickler wrote:

If the prep was leaked, that would still be cheating for Niemann to accept the information.

Caruana's prep for the 2018 match was revealed by a video, and Carlsen (wo confirmed he knew about it) did not hesitate to enter that line.

And?

These are not the same thing.

viennacaver
btickler wrote:
viennacaver wrote:
btickler wrote:

If the prep was leaked, that would still be cheating for Niemann to accept the information.

Caruana's prep for the 2018 match was revealed by a video, and Carlsen (wo confirmed he knew about it) did not hesitate to enter that line.

And?

These are not the same thing.

Correct. In the Caruana/Carlsen case, it's a proven fact. In The Carlsen/Niemann case, it's only speculations by uninvolved and uninformed people.

AussieMatey

I thought Hans was quite articulate in the interview for a 19 year old under a lot of pressure, and if he wins the tourney, we're gonna get Magnus down to present his 1st placed trophy. happy.png

bigmoneyK
how
AussieMatey

I've got the bigmoneyK ontacts to get it done.

DiogenesDue
viennacaver wrote:
btickler wrote:
viennacaver wrote:
btickler wrote:

If the prep was leaked, that would still be cheating for Niemann to accept the information.

Caruana's prep for the 2018 match was revealed by a video, and Carlsen (wo confirmed he knew about it) did not hesitate to enter that line.

And?

These are not the same thing.

Correct. In the Caruana/Carlsen case, it's a proven fact. In The Carlsen/Niemann case, it's only speculations by uninvolved and uninformed people.

No, it's not the same because ethically your example is not the same as the hypothetical being posed.  Caruana knew about the accidental leak and could have changed his plans.  Carlsen was beneficiary recipient of the leak but did not receive it clandestinely, nor did he solicit it.