There is an easy way to find out.
If the Bulgarian's federation made an unfair and unlawful decision, Ivanov will sue them and win. Otherwise, he will just shut the hell up for four months and then come back stealing money prize from second-class tournaments until his next ban.
My bet is on the second option.
maybe just a hasty decision...it depends on how much money Ivanov has and if he can afford a lawyer. It is tough to single handedly to take on an Institution. People just avoid that kind of prolonged scrutiny. Silence is not always a sign of guilt.
Billy boy, your definition of admissible evidence and standards of proof seem to be drawn from American criminal law, or perhaps television dramas loosely based on American criminal law. There is no reason to assume that these are the relevant standards in a case involving a dispute between the Bulgarian Chess Federation and one of its members, or to any cheating case at all. They're certainly nothing like the standards that apply in the tens of thousands of civil cases that American courts adjudicate every year. In fact, civil courts almost anywhere is the world certainly would admit the statistical evidence that is being raised against Ivanov. Statistical evidence and probability are used in determining cases every day.
And on the practical side, any time an adult player with a pretty well established performance level suddenly begins to perform about 400 ELO points above that level, only an idiot would fail to recognize cheating.
Herr Gottlieb, that is one thorough list of assumptions...
What the issue here is what is the right way of doing things.
Now, perhaps the way the Bulgurians did it is perfectly ok. But that doesn't stop anyone from asking questions. It is perfectly ok to say that it could have been handled more appropriately, perhaps by the standards of the International Community.
By all means the Bulgurians are free to do what they want.
So maybe I am misinformed and I haven't read the official statement of the Bulgarian Chess Federation: perhaps they did consult a lawyer asking if they have the right to ban someone based on a few games.
However, it would be mob justice, if they simply complied to the complaints of the GMs. There has to be a due process.
I don't know about point jumps, whether anyone who performs better is a cheater.
I still think they just succumbed to the pressure.