guess what master your human to ?

hello hopefully someone takes thsi serious cause to me it's aserious topic. based off real games or games between computers what do you think with a very honset opinion are the chances of a FM (2300-2399) DROPPING (NOT by a gambit) at least a pawn in less than 15 moves ?

I'd say 2-6 out of 20 of there games once they become a FM basing it off possible pyscholigical factors an dcatching them off guard with a tricky opeing line. 

We have one FM that plays all the time at my club and I don't think I've seen him "drop" a pawn ever and this is going over a few years now.

2-6/40 which is very small

Computer Analysis shows GM level players that have made bigger mistakes early in a game due to sharp prepared openings...on the flip side Computers have shown to be very prone to mistakes on highly positional openings like the Najdorf, and without opening books they tend to play very weak openings in general since the sheer number of possibilities that exist in even a single move would take hours or even days for a system to analyze and return an optimal path.

I think that would depend on the level of his opponent, too.

No it's not. 6/40 means it happens more than once every eight games. 2/40 means it happens every 20 games, and even that seems insanely high.

My best guess would be >1% of the time.