Horrible luck, black pieces ten games in a row

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SoupSailor
In my last 10 rated rapid games, I’ve had the black pieces.

What is the likelihood of this happening? What is your longest streak of the same color?

Are there any factors that chess.com takes into account when deciding your color, or is it just luck?
SoupSailor
I forgot to mention, I was 7-2-1 during this stretch.
Martin_Stahl
SoupSailor72 wrote:
In my last 10 rated rapid games, I’ve had the black pieces.
What is the likelihood of this happening? What is your longest streak of the same color?
Are there any factors that chess.com takes into account when deciding your color, or is it just luck?

While it's possible, it shouldn't be likely to get that many in a row based on how the color allocation is supposed to work.

paper_llama

Hmm, maybe it can't distinguish between rated and unrated.

paper_llama
SoupSailor72 wrote:
What is the likelihood of this happening?

An easy shorthand for powers of 2 is 10 = 1000.

So 10 in a row is (roughly) 1 in 1000
20 in a row would be 1 in 1 million (because 1000 x 1000).

This is only if color allocation is random.

onBoard64

The likelihood of being given black ten times in a row?

I guess it's 1/1024 (2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2).

Sea_TurtIe

ive had black 5 times in a row, my black rep sucks because of the italian and london system but i feel what you be feeling

Martin_Stahl
Martin_Stahl wrote:
SoupSailor72 wrote:
In my last 10 rated rapid games, I’ve had the black pieces.
What is the likelihood of this happening? What is your longest streak of the same color?
Are there any factors that chess.com takes into account when deciding your color, or is it just luck?

While it's possible, it shouldn't be likely to get that many in a row based on how the color allocation is supposed to work.

I meant to add that I asked staff about it as well, since it seems like it could he an issue based on the way it's supposed to work.

ChessMasteryOfficial

Playing with black pieces is not that bad

4KnightsOfTheApocalypse

i prefer to play black. good luck in your games!

ice_cream_cake

I was gonna do this earlier, but I just looked up the probability that you have a streak of 10 or more black games within 310 rated rapids (the amount it seems you had played when making this post, if I haven't gotten something wrong.)
Note that this is the more relevant probability, as opposed to the isolated probability that 10 black pieces occur in a row. The latter probability is low, of course. But if you have a string of events, then you have more chances for the unlikely event to happen somewhere down the line. Thus, the relevant probability in question is about 13.77%, as opposed to the 1/1024 number listed in a previous comment. Unlikely, yes, but not too bizarre (as opposed to the 5% threshold often used for statistical significance.)
That said, I thought that chess.com tries to balance the colors more, so I guess that 10 black games in a row would probably be quite unlikely even in a string of 310 games.

ice_cream_cake
paper_llama wrote:
SoupSailor72 wrote:
What is the likelihood of this happening?

An easy shorthand for powers of 2 is 10 = 1000.

So 10 in a row is (roughly) 1 in 1000
20 in a row would be 1 in 1 million (because 1000 x 1000).

This is only if color allocation is random.

Spoken like a computer scientist lol grin.png