Is there a mental trick to figuring out which side will come out on top or is it just visualization?
How do you get good at making this type of calculation?
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Well you sure don't figure out the best play by listening to black.
You can look at each individual piece and see what it can or can't do. For example, black's dark bishop is hemmed in and is only good for protecting h6. White's Nc4 threatens two pawns that have to be protected by black's knight and queen; granted neither piece has much else to do. So on and so forth, and you find that the only white piece that is not active is the Rf3 while black's pieces are just waiting for white's breakthrough to get some air.
You have to calculate capturing variations like that one to the end and then scrutinize it for possible zwischenzuege.
If it's too confusing, then one trick is to calculate it twice. First count only the material one side wins, and then count for the other.
Be sure as you're forming your primary variation, to calculate slowly to check for in between moves like 3.Qd2 or maybe 3.Rxf2 ... the point being don't just move the same piece for each side over and over. 3.Rxf2 seems to win the a5 pawn at a glance.