How hard (what ELO) do you think this endgame is?

Just curious - I'm reading Fundamental Chess Endings by Lamprecht/Muller now and it's slow going, but good stuff. 

This is one of the 'basic' endgames they show - white is Botvinnik. 

The pawn structure looks simple, but it seems like a tricky endgame, at least to me. For all you stronger players, what ELO do your opponent would have to be to likely know how to win this endgame very consistently?

(Analysis isn't mine - it's the comments from the book I put in)

According to Silman's Complete Endgame Course a King and 2 pawns vs a King and 2 pawns is a "Class D" endgame.  1200-1400 USCF

I teach the concept of opposition to very young, not particularly strong players. However, applying basic notions of opposition and outflanking in this position could be tricky for some. It's hard to estimate ELO for this ending as some 1300s could play it well while some 1700s and above could blow it. Time on the clock could be an issue, too.

In particular, 5.Ke8 may prove challenging to some players. I became familiar with this idea via a much more challenging exercise in Dvoretsky's Endgame Manual that I studied about the time that I first hit 1600 USCF.

I can say for absolute certainty that the vast majority of 1400 level players, and for sure, nearly all 1200 players, would not understand the endgame I posted above, which is a 2P vs 2P situation. 

Knowing what opposition is a low-level concept, but as Ziryab said, having to combine outflanking with opposition is not at all easy. I would personally say this is at LEAST a 1600+ level problem, but that's just my opinion. 

I think the hard part about 5.Ke8 isn't at all the actualy move Ke8. It's that to actually come about playing Ke8, you have to know from the very start that outflanking from the rear will win, which requires calculating far enough ahead as well that you will see that you can win the pawn fast enough despite black snatching your rear pawn. Once you know you're going to plan a rear outflanking manuever, Ke8 is an obvious, required move since how else are you going to attack f7 from the rear?

Furthermore, if you didn't really predict the important sidelines on the way, you just 'got lucky' - those are pretty important lines that must be answered before even going in for Ke8.

I think a 1300 'might' be able to stumble into the correct plan and pull it off, but I doubt the vast majority of 1300s will be able to articulate the complete answer. Meaning for example, if a master took the black side and the white 1300 had to win as white despite all the master's tricks. I'd say in the vast majority of situations, the 1300 will screw it up against the master as white, which means they do NOT understand the position fully.

When I teach opposition, outflanking is central to the lesson. Even so, outflanking from the rear is counter-intuitive and relies on calculation. 

Yeah, outflanking/opposition in easy cases is 1200 level stuff.

Outflanking from the rear as in the example is a whole different level of play (albeit encountered with surprising regularity in these pawn setups apparently, as there are a few examples of them in FCE)

I will also add that quite a few outflanking/opposition in FCE are not much easier than this despite the 2p/1p examples. Maybe not rear outflanking, but for sure, not that much easier, with multiple 'only move' retreating lines that aren't as simple as maintaining distant opposition.

I would probably blow it.

Don't worry - I'm def 1300+ and I blew the entire problem, from start to finish. Not even close! 

Even after studying it, it's still not so easy if you play it against an engine and try and win it.

Endgame and rating don't really go together.  Anyone above 1200 can probably learn this endgame and win in OTB (if they remember and have enough time on the clock) but I've met 2000+ players that don't know basic king and pawn endings (although not that many of them).  It's all about whether a person has learned the specific skill, although a strong enough calculator with enough time could probably figure it out even without knowing basic K + P endgame principles.

Endgame OTB is also harder to quantify because time is also often a factor

Goes to show how such an evaluation will always be a bit rubbish.

Let's say  you have kings in close opposition and three (the two of which are doubled) of the pawns on one wing, the fourth pawn on the other wing. Who wins? Surely the one with the free pawn and no doubled pawns would, right?

Yes, it's obviously not a perfect correlation, similarly as some 1200 players can play a 2300 IM even for the first 8 moves of their pet theoretical opening before falling apart.

Still, on AVERAGE, there are definitely levels of endgame ability that are similar between most players of a certain rating. For example, I'd be surprised if a 1000 level player pulled a Lucena win off against me, whereas I'd expect it from 1600.

This endgame I wouldn't expect to see played correctly against a IM or computer opponent as black unless you're 1800+, but that's just my opinion. Against lesser opposition (like me), it's easier to win as I'd put up less resistance.

Sounds like a winning outside passed pawn to me , at least for most situations with this sort of setup.

Safe for any blunders, it would be an easy win, yes :)

Pawn endings are humbling for sure!

Many players might be able to stumble from move to move and win this with white.

In an OTB situation with let's say 10 minutes on the clock, I'd say, it's pretty unlikely that sub-2000 players would be able to, with absolute certainty, see ALL the lines.

Maybe sub-1800

And that goes triple for Pfren's position.

This endgame is a bit tricky, but opposition and pawn endgames are a part of 1300 level study. Rating estimations for a position are ineffective unless you actually take USCF rated players and show them the position before estimating. With regards to your claim of being 1300, are you saying USCF? If we're talking USCF rating, I'd disagree since my USCF is 1339 (it peaked at 1456 and I just had a horrible OTB tournament, resulting in the loss of 86 rating) yet my tactics rating is nearly 2000 and I outplayed a 1690 in this opening in round 1 of said tournament: 

Wth does this game have to do with this topic?

hhnngg1 wrote: