Apologies, this is de Groot Shafritz.
In depth position analysis attempt (de Groot Zyme)
I got it wrong...
I think I did okay though for the most part. I can learn a lot from this.
My line 1.Nb5 Qh5 2. Nf4 exf4 3.Bxf4 runs into 3..Be5 which I completely missed.
Other than that I think that the continuations I calculated were more accurate than I expected. The computer even thinks that 1..Qh5 is what black would play in this position if it was black to move. I saw this eventually but there is no 2..Bh6 follow up apparently.
I am disappointed that I missed the importance of the g4 square completely. It is apparently where I was supposed to focus.... I still have much improvement needed.
Personally, I misevaluated stockfishes top recommendation of f4 for white, because I totally missed f4, e4, g4! So that is my lesson here -- g4 looks funny/risky at first, but black doesn't have the development to exploit it seems, and it just collapses black's center. F4 would be a comparatively weaker move if e4 could not be answered with g4.
I'm not strong enough to see the deeper meaning of 1.f4 e4 2.g4 even after being told it is correct. From what I read it has something to do with white's rooks but as far as seeing lines that tell me that this is advantageous for white I am at a complete loss. The position seems very messy and complicated to me.
I didn't even consider 1.f4 because of the 1..e4 reply actually.
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My first impression is that white has a space advantage and that
it is easier for white to play on both sides of the board.
White seems to be better mainly noting black's rook on a8, knight on e8, and bishop on c8.
Material is even.
Looking deeper I would say that white's king safety is also better than black's
noting that the queen and king are both on the a2-g8 diagonal and the c6 square could be a nice outpost in some lines
due to the threat of Bd5 so black would have to waste a tempo somewhere there probably. Also things like Bh3 can put
pressure on the a2-g8 diagonal.
I really like the pawn on a5 for white since it really messes with black's queenside pawns and black's d6 pawn is a fixed
weakness that white can build up on. The e5 and f5 pawns seem to likely be staying there.
I definitely prefer white here. I would guess 0.7 for white but I'll come back for a more accurate attempt later.
White's a5 pawn, ds bishop, and queen are undefended but that doesn't seem to be a problem.
Black's rook on a8 is undefended and that might be kind of relevant for the d5 square. The d5-g8 diagonal and d5-a8 diagonal.
It seems that the light squares are important in black's camp and that white's ls bishop has a lot of potential.
At the same time perhaps white should consider a plan trading off black's ls bishop to highlight the light square problems even more.
There is actually only 1 possible capture that I can see available on the board and that is 1..Qxd5 which of course is terrible.
So, there is hardly any contact between the pieces but there is a lot of tension. It is worth noting that white has a rook on the same
file as black's queen. It is becoming more apparent that white seems to have all the chances here.
I think that the pawn structure will stay the same for a while and that play with the pieces is more likely for a while.
The pieces are fairly balanced for black and white on the board. I would say that white's pieces are better coordinated.
White seems more active but I think black can unravel their pieces very quickly. White probably only has a dynamic advantage here
and should play actively in an attempt to create a static advantage.
If I had to name a few squares that I think are important, I would say d5 d6 f4 b6. Those are probably the key squares to me.
The ls bishops are probably the most important pieces in the long run for my strategy as of right now I think.
Black might want to play 1..Nf6 but it would decrease the control of b6 as a concession. Maybe 1..Nc7 if black is worried about 2.Nb5
I think 1..Nc7 is what black wants to play because black probably is looking at a b6, Bb7 plan. I think it might look something like
1..Nc7 2..Rb8 3..b6 4..Bb7 So it seems to me that black is going to try to play on the queenside for a little while at least. I don't see
any current plans for kingside activity enthough that is what black will probably go for in the future.
I honestly don't see any problems for white here. Black is having to try to coordinate and develope their pieces while white can just improve
their position if nothing else. It seems to be a good time for white to try to initiate contact somehow.
As far as moves for white, the move that has been popping out at me a lot is the interesting 1.Nf4 and it seems the most forcing but with a very
high commitment when it might still be unclear. I want to look at other possibilities with less commitment first probably. White probably has no
interest in trading pieces here. 1.Nb5 has to be considered here probably. It stops the Nc7-Na6-Nb4 manuever. White would love if black played 1..a6
to kick the knight as well. That knight has to be dreaming of the b4 square as I don't see any other future for it other than trading it off. Black would
have to waste a tempo to prepare the move Nc7 now and the other knight might have to release control of the b6 square to prepare that move as well.
1.Nb5 is my king of the hill move for now. I see 1.Nf4 exf4 2.Bxf4 Nc7 and black is doing better than what they would be doing in the 1.Nb5 lines it seems.
I would like to consider at least 1 more candidate move here so let's see... I think the e1 rook is probably white's least active piece so I'll consider
moving it. 1.Ra1 defends the a-pawn and gives the other rook breathing room but it would leave the knight on e2 undefended on Nb5. That gives black a clear plan.
1.Ra1 Qh5 and now there is no 2.Nb5 so I think white should play 1.Nb5 here.
1.Nb5 doesn't really seem to leave anything behind and it puts immediate pressure on black's main weakness, the d6 pawn.
Black does seem to have kind of a possible quick threat with Nf6-g4 Qh5 but I don't see it amounting to anything really.
I also now see a plan for black that goes something like 1..Qh5 2..Bh6 to put pressure on the key f4 square for kingside counterplay.
I would probably expect to see something like that if I play 1.Nb5 Maybe 1.Qh5 is black's main idea in the first place. The queen is in a tactically bad spot
and probably should move anyway. It also goes better with the kingside theme that black probably should go for. With that said 1.Nb5 gives my queen access
to the kingside if needed but then the f5 and e5 pawns might have more potential than I originally thought.
Let's look at 1.Nb5 Qh5 which might be black's best try but now the interesting 2.Nf4 comes with a bigger threat and I like it a lot actually.
After something like 2.Nf4 exf4 3.Bxf4 White has put another attacker on the d6 weakness, the e1 rook is now a monster, and now the white queen has more potential
on the kingside probably. Black wouldn't play 2..exf4 I don't think. Maybe 2..Qh6 then since the ds bishop is undefended. Then I have the calm 3.Be3 with a threat
of a discovery on the queen. 4.Ne6 when 4..f4 looks like it can be met with 5.gxf4 and white is a good bit better there too I think.
What about the calmer 1.Nb5 Ndf6 I think maybe just 2.h3 and black is having problems finding moves here maybe. 2..Nc7 and 2..Bd7 lines don't seem to do much and
I think 2..Bd7 is the best move for black there.
White can continue to squeeze black slowly and black doesn't seem to have any way to really stop it.
My evaluation of the position now is probably between 0.5 to 0.7 for white.
I play 1.Nb5!