In most chess games someone has a winning advantage by the 15th move

I believe that in most chess games someone has a winning advantage by the 15th move.

By this I mean that if you looked at the billions of chess games from someone just learning to play chess to supergrand master--more than one half would have one side or the other with a winning position by the 15th move.

The higher rated or the more proficient the players are this is less likely to happen.  With very new players it will happen much more than 90% of the time.  With Super Grandmasters probably less than 5% of the time.

How do you tell if in any given game this is true?  One fair way would be to use a very good chess engine.

I may be wrong but counting all the players not on chess com and counting kids just learning and adding players here the average rating would be about 1000. Correct me if I am wrong on this.

I almost completely agree. I'd say that when there are no glaring positional advanages, the material advantages by move 15 can determine the winner over 70% or the time at least.

what chess engine do you recommend sir ponz..how can i get one? i want to explore other engines in addition to chess.com's.. 

Material advantages by move 15? What kind of opening are you playing?!

I do not suggest any particular chess engine.  However if you have your own chess engine look at your last few games.

KingStriker,  the average player is not into opening theory at least not past say the 5th move or so. 

You are way above average so you should have less than one half your games with a winning position by the 15th move. I would guess for a Class A player the percentage of games where there is a winning advantage by the 15th move to be about 20%

I just looked over my recent over the board games and found that in about 20-25% someone had a winning advantage by move 15, and I am a class A player. But, it should be noted that in about half of the games where this was the case the rating difference between the players was great. In one case I was play an IM and was clearly lost by move 15 and in a couple of cases I was playing against players rated 1100-1300. Only in two games were the ratings within 250 points--once when I blundered in the opening against a slightly higher-rated player and another time when I played a dangerous gambit against an expert.

sputnick  and also the players were way above average even the 1100-1300 players.

I am guessing the average strength of all the players in the world is around 1000.  [correct me if I am wrong]

I noticed when I was in Ponziani Power vote chess and some of the teams were really good that the games were pretty much decided by the 15th move. and this with both sides having all the time to ponder.

Think how bullet chess wouid make a difference in bullet chess probaby over 85% of the games have a winning postion by the 15th move.

I checked the 5 slow games I've played in 2013, and none of them had a winning advantage in the first 15 moves, although #2 below was close. The most extreme evaluation for each of them was:

game 1: +/= (0.65)
game 2: +/- (1.25)
game 3: =/+ (-0.31)
game 4: = (black quickly equalized and it was = after that through move 15)
game 5: =/+ (-0.55)

Thank you for checking .  the results for your rating are about as expected.

To me any advantage more than one pawn is winning with a follow up of best play for both sides. So I would say #2 you had a winning advantage with best play.

Actually, for me I would even say that an advantage of .65 I would very much expect to win.

Also, in slow games [which are generally better played by both sides as both sides have more time] my hypotheis does  not work near as well as in fast games and the vast majority of chess games are not slow games.

However, having said all that, I thank you much for your information. 

Here are the two positions for 0.65 and 1.25: do you think you could defeat Houdini as the defender in both cases? Chessbase doesn't interpret 1.25 as "winning", but merely as "White is better", and likewise for 0.65. In both of these positions, I think the evaluation will probably get better for Black as he manages to finish his development, which seems doable in both cases.

sapiwndust  To answer your question:  Before computers, if I had either position I would expect to win.

The question should [now] not be if I could win vs Houdini [now] given these two positions--this is because I am way past my prime.

The question should be what would be the result for theso two positions

if Houdini were playing a similar version of Houdini or equally strong chess engine.

What is my quess?  My guess is White would prevail in both positions.

However, I think chess computers can play themselves?  So, please if anyone has a good chess engine and is willing to take the time and effort, please put both of the above positions to the test~!? 

In the first game I am guessing White could play 16. Ba3  Re8 17.Rab1 with a bind.

Putting these two positions to the test would go some ways  in determing "what is a winning advantage"

It would be interesting to know what advantage White gets in the opening per evaluation of chess engines on many good openings. I would guess about .20  [anyone has stats on this?]

It would also be interesting to get stats on what advantage it takes to win in situations where a strong chess engine is playing a similar strong chess engine?  [anyone has stats on this?]

If we consider an engine evaluation of +1.5 (roughly one and a half pawns) a "winning advantage," then yes, it's an empirical question whether most games reach this evaluation by the 15th move.

OK.  Now What?

When I raised this question with my 2400 rated chess mentor, he said -- "No, you need at least 2 pawns for a decisive winning advantage."

Whatever.

I'm happy (as a pig in a poke) to simply reach a level endgame at Game in 5/5 up to Game in 15/5 speeds.  Then I play for a win, regardless of the position.

That, along with focused chess study, is how I practice.  Very simple.

Just my personal prejudice.  Who has the time for these esoteric, online chess investigations, before you retire?    

I played out both positions using stockfish, and Black managed to draw both positions. One was saved by Black by establishing an opposite-colored bishop ending that was two pawns down but defendable. The other ended up as a drawn ending of bishop vs knight with equal pawns.

I don't think it gives evidence either way about what a winning advantage is though, as you'd need much more data than two positions. It does mean though that 0 out of my last 5 slow games were winning by move 15, which suggests that your hypothesis might not be true for players much higher than class D players at slow time controls, unless my last 5 games were unrepresentative of players of my strength (class C/B).

Here are the games:

That's very true! When I was reading World's Greatest Chess Games (a collection of 125 great games), you could already tell who was going to win the game by move 10 - 15 at most.

More than half the time White has the winning advantage at the start of the game, which Black needs to overcome.  (I'm missing your point.)

sftac

No, he doesn't. White only has a slight advantage, not a winning advantage lol.

I am probably a little prejudiced on this matter. For example, all things being equal, I think one pawn is more than enough for a winning advantage.

I am also saying this is mostly applied to class D and below [winning advantage by the 15th move]

My chess is from 1989 and before and it was the very slow correspondence chess.  The two positions earlier shown by sapientdust and put to stockfish and in both cases drawn--I would have thought I would win with those two positions. My play was before chess engines.

[I am not sure but think there were chess engines in the 1980's but maybe the highest rated class A?]

So my assertion that one side or the other usually has a winning position by the 15th move is colored by my own experience [hey, I could win from that position!] 

I was actually surprised that stockfish held both of those positions to a draw!

However, one thing, the fact that stockfish held both of those positions to a draw--does indicate [some indication] that the game of chess is a draw if neither side makes a mistake. [plays perfectly] 

New type of chess. A ponzi game : after 15 moves the winner is declared.