Is Chess on the verge of being solved?

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Avatar of Ziryab
CraigIreland wrote:

I wouldn't even try to predict the advances the human race will make in the next 1000 years, should it survive that long. You're looking at a complex system of interacting exponentials with many unknowns, which could lead to wildly different results. Let's try to make it through the next 100 years first.

 

https://youtu.be/izQB2-Kmiic

 

Avatar of tygxc

@241
The number of chess games lies between  10^29241 and 10^34082.
https://wismuth.com/chess/longest-game.html

However, the number of legal chess positions is 10^44.
https://github.com/tromp/ChessPositionRanking 

Losing Chess has been solved using 10^9 positions, a billion.
http://magma.maths.usyd.edu.au/~watkins/LOSING_CHESS/ICGA2016.pdf 

To weakly solve chess needs 10^17 legal, sensible, reachable, relevant positions.
100 million billion positions.

Cloud engines can calculate a billion positions per second.
https://chessify.me/blog/nps-what-are-the-nodes-per-second-in-chess-engine-analysis

In 5 years there are 100 million seconds.
5 * 365.25 * 24 * 3600

Chess can be solved in 5 years.

"Give me five years, good assistants and the latest computers
- I will bring all openings to technical endgames and "close" chess." - GM Sveshnikov

Avatar of llama36
tygxc wrote:

"Give me five years" - GM Sveshnikov

He said this 15 years ago. He was obviously wrong.

Avatar of Kowarenai

many grandmasters like hikaru say it is since it would probably be solved in a few decades

Avatar of llama36
Kowarenai wrote:

many grandmasters like hikaru say it is since it would probably be solved in a few decades

To be fair, Hikaru has said a lot of dumb things on stream.

Avatar of Kowarenai
llama36 wrote:
Kowarenai wrote:

many grandmasters like hikaru say it is since it would probably be solved in a few decades

To be fair, Hikaru has said a lot of dumb things on stream.

he is like that loveable grumpy grandpa, entertaining but at times stupid or sour tho cool

Avatar of tygxc

@245
"He was obviously wrong."
++ He was not given the good assistants or the latest computers, so he was not wrong.

Avatar of magipi

The title of this thread is quite misleading. The opening post is about a quite suspicious book promoting the Blackmar-Diemer gambit. It has nothing to do with solving chess or anything like it.

Avatar of llama36
tygxc wrote:

@245
"He was obviously wrong."
++ He was not given the good assistants or the latest computers, so he was not wrong.

That was 15 years ago.

Avatar of tygxc

@251
"That was 15 years ago."
++ Yes, June 25, 2007, but he was not given what he needed, so he was not wrong.

Avatar of llama36
tygxc wrote:

@251
"That was 15 years ago."
++ Yes, June 25, 2007, but he was not given what he needed, so he was not wrong.

It's reasonable to believe he was wrong since by 2022 standards it would no longer require "the latest computers."

Just because someone says something doesn't make it true.

Avatar of tygxc

@253

"Just because someone says something doesn't make it true."

++ That is true, but when one of the top analysts in the world says something, then we should at least listen and consider. Facts & figures corroborate what he said.

Avatar of llama36
tygxc wrote:

@253

"Just because someone says something doesn't make it true."

++ That is true, but when one of the top analysts in the world says something, then we should at least listen and consider. Facts & figures corroborate what he said.

He said it 15 years ago, that is plenty of time for 1 GM to agree with him, but no one agrees with him except you.

You, who, by the way, have a history of repeating the most outlandish quotes, even when it requires you to misquote the person, such as when you misquoted Carlsen as saying 1800s blunder on almost every move. I guess you like the attention such claims bring.

Avatar of llama36

Anyway, there is at least one full topic of many people disagreeing with you. I'm not going to relitigate that here.

Avatar of tygxc

@255

"He said it 15 years ago, that is plenty of time for 1 GM to agree with him"
++ But can you quote 1 GM who disagreed with him?
Carlsen refusing to defend his classical title can indicate tacit agreement.
Nakamura apparently said a few decades, that is more than 5 years. 

"misquoted Carlsen as saying 1800s blunder on almost every move"
++ I requoted, I did not misquote.

Avatar of llama36
tygxc wrote:

@255

"He said it 15 years ago, that is plenty of time for 1 GM to agree with him"
++ But can you quote 1 GM who disagreed with him?
Carlsen refusing to defend his classical title can indicate tacit agreement.
Nakamura apparently said a few decades, that is more than 5 years. 

"misquoted Carlsen as saying 1800s blunder on almost every move"
++ I requoted, I did not misquote.

I already provided you with the source which unequivocally showed you were wrong. Your failure to acknowledge it's a misquote makes me think much less of you.

Avatar of tygxc

@258
I did not make up a Carlsen quote, I re-quoted an already circulating quote in good faith assuming it to be authentic.
@256
Fair enough. Many people loathe the idea of chess being solved. Science is no democracy.

Avatar of llama36
tygxc wrote:

@258
I did not make up a Carlsen quote, I re-quoted an already circulating quote in good faith assuming it to be authentic.

Ok, that's fair.

 

tygxc wrote:

Science is no democracy.

Science requires more than one old man's musings. He said "I feel that power" which is much more religion than science.

Avatar of MorningGlory84
CraigIreland wrote:

I wouldn't even try to predict the advances the human race will make in the next 1000 years, should it survive that long. You're looking at a complex system of interacting exponentials with many unknowns, which could lead to wildly different results. Let's try to make it through the next 100 years first.

Let's try to reach the end of our own lives enduring and inflicting the minimal suffering possible. That's about the extent of my lofty goals. Whatever happens beyond the end of one's own lifetime is frivolous to consider.

Avatar of tygxc

@260
"Science requires more than one old man's musings."
++ That is true, but it is an expert opinion. I summarised some facts & figures above @244.