psychic chess masters

I'd add then, go U.S. in =GM seek, because in about 10 more decades mayb we can catch up with the Russians.

The key explanation here is :

It would be highly improbable that not a single improbable event ever happens.

I can predict for example the following thing : "in the next two years, an influential political figure in the US will reveal his/her unexpected homosexuality". My chances of failure are very slim, despite the apparent unlikelyhood of such a thing.

Why so ?

Because I did not say which person will do so. Assuming there are 5000 political figures considered as influential in the US (if you take into account journalists, bloggers, etc. it's easy to get there) and each of them has a probability of 1/1000 to fulfill my prediction, my probability of success is 1-(0.999^5000) = 99.3%.

If you want to make it even better for me, replace the outing by "will have a serious accident", where I left a door to discuss forever after the prediction about what is or is not a serious accident, pure "psychic"-style.

So yes, coincidences happen. The fact is that you notice them because they seem out of the ordinary, but if you noticed all the other things (in my example, the 4999 influential figures that did not make an outing or fell in the stairs), it wouldn't seem so extraordinary. It would be extraordinary if nothing extraordinary happened.

And you think that hyperbole or cherry-picking only the most convenient examples  that suit your perspective accounts for all of the the far out-of--band coincidences that people experience, and know they have experienced?  Nope.  Nice try though.  You're patting yourself heartily on the back for your obviously blatant blunder of reasoning.

If my argument is so obviously flawed, a real refutation of it wouldn't hurt, and would be easy to find.

Read your own nonsense.  Your very first example is absurd hyperbole and it clearly doesn't form nor bolster any kind of remotely credible rebuttal. 

I am going to go way out on a limb and guess that no such refutation is forthcoming. The stars aren't in the right position, or something.

You : unlikely events happen.

Me : that's because even more likely events happen, and on the sum of all events, a few unlikely events are bound to happen.

You : you are stupid, that's nonsense.

Me : could you be more precise ?

You : you are stupid, you do not deserve it.

Don't worry, I will not argue a long time like this. You "win".

Its really a math illiteracy thing. I blame the schools. I don't know who the schools blame.

If only you had characterized or summarized accurately.  But alas.  You used hyperbole and an arbitrary irrelevant example of a case that does not address the kind of coincidences I described, and are using chewing gum and bailing wire to hold together your rebuttal. I won't go so far as to say I win, as much as to say you blundered.

Well, I did respond.  So maybe some kind of insecurity you have about your inability to make accurate predictions makes you feel compelled to project  that onto everything else.  I don't know, but you two seem very emotional right now, and rather flailing and tangental in your objections.

You... Bad ! You... idiot !

(your next replica in the list of internet arguments is : "you are a racist")

Are hyperbole, tangents and misrepresentations how you troll your way around all conflict?  Or is it just this one?  

Edit:

I initially point out that some people experience extreme and/or all too frequent highly improbable coincidences, such as thinking of someone out of the blue and they call at that time, even when maybe they haven't for years.  And it seems like that has happened many times with that one or more person.  And you write that off as being a meaningless example by saying that ordinary things happen all the time, which makes things like this seem to stand out in the noise?  

I mean what is your rebuttal really? I just don't see how at any point you created evidence of anything relevant to address my original questions/claims/speculation.  Then you started telling me I'm calling you bad, stupid and you kept putting all kinds of words into my mouth and creating strawman arguments and exaggerations.  And wound up telling me that I would call you a racist, as if you just want to concede the point that you'll use hyperbole, misrepresentations and tangents to troll out of the argument.  And you're accusing me of not defending my point.  Ironic.

No, I am still waiting for the refutation. 

And it would certainly be worth considering doing so if I were refuting something that was in any way relevent to the post that he responded to initially.  But as I made clear, he went off on a tangent in his first 'rebuttal'.  And that is obvious.

Dr. Zuckhar's Psychic Chess Game

By Chris Capps  11/9/09 

Shortly before the iron curtain fell on the tragedy known as The Cold War, there was a politically high charged chess game in 1978 held by the two greatest world champions at that time.  Viktor Korchnoi and Anatoly Karpov sat together in Marano Italy.  Korchnoi, after defecting from the Soviet Union, played without a country's flag to represent him.  Karpov, far younger than Korchnoi, may have had an assistant in the audience, however, under the gaze of the psychic Dr. Zukhar.

The game was fraught with controversy from the beginning.  Karpov's chair was removed, taken to a nearby hospital, dismantled, and X-Rayed piece by piece in search of transmitters, among things.  Korchnoi raised his hand as the standard show of good sportsmanship, but the Soviet Karpov refused to shake it.  Yogurt brought to the game created a stir when Korchnoi suggested a coded message may have been in it.  Of course Karpov was feeling a great deal of tension from the Soviet Union, as Korchnoi was expected to use the opportunity of his victory as a chance to ask for the release of his family from the USSR, and increase international pressure to do so.  The Soviets knew that they must win at all costs.  It was perhaps this, that spurred them to call upon the expertise of Dr. Zukhar.

When the match reached the 15th move, Zukhar fixed his gaze on Korchnoi intensely and did not avert it, barely blinking.  Korchnoi at that point hesitated so profoundly that he actually got up and walked around the stage, prompting some to wonder what was the matter.  Korchnoi always seemed so confident when playing.  He never hesitated, and never showed any sign of weakness.  For him to suddenly get up like this was beyond belief of many of his fans assembled in the crowd.  Korchnoi asked one of the representatives working there that Mr. Zukhar be moved, and he was, but maintained his intense gaze on Korchnoi.  Korchnoi later reported that he could feel thoughts entering his head in the voice of Zukhar, "You should not fight Karpov.  You are a traitor to the Soviet Union and must lose the game now."

As the games progressed, Zukhar was present at each and stared at Korchnoi.  Whether it was a psychological move or an actual psychic attack is largely in the realm of speculation, but several in attendance were convinced that something otherworldly was going on with Dr. Zukhar, including Leeuwerik and his daughter who made their own attempts to break Zukhar's concentration with their own limited psychic abilities.  The Cold War was engaged in one of several purely psychic battles, the prize of which was the chess match and the dignity of either one man, or the entirety of the USSR.

In the end, Korchnoi was defeated and Karpov was crowned a world champion of chess.  Despite his defeat, Korchnoi continued to play leading one of the longest lived professional chess careers of all time.  Though he hadn't been given the chance to speak out against the Soviet Union after his infamous match, he did eventually find the embrace of his family once again as the Iron Curtain fell.  As for Zukhar, he continued to be Karpov's personal "psychological trainer" and finally admitted to being a psychic spy for Karpov during the match.

That's post #16, which answered #267.

Huh ! Prediction ! Psychics !

Oh ye of little penis, uh, er, I mean little faith

i think you mean to say that it destroyed the original premise, and you have no way of refuting it.

I won't even speculate about what you mean to say because it is starting to become evident you probably don't even know.  Apparently you can't distinguish between his non-sequiturs and your own.

I think your yin has hit your yang so hard you can't think straight.