You've hit the nail squarely on the head Modest. A few like to argue "anything is possible" by using mathematical equations as proofs to validate their belief. The topic centers around more of a philosophical debate for myself. Of course a 1300 would never win, there is no point in the question but to ask "is the impossible, possible"?
Yeah but I don't disagree with 95% of what modest is saying mdinnerspace! If you think I'm disagreeing with him you're misunderstanding. Things that are theoretically possible, can be so unlikely that they're depressing. I don't doubt that modest got crushed by that really strong player. His chances to win were greater than zero, but were still very bleak indeed, and almost might as well not be there.
"Could I beat them? Well Phelps might drown, Wiggins might crash, and Farrar might be tripped and stay down!"
I get your point, but this can lead to a no true scotsman fallacy. Haven't you seen 400-500 rating point upsets before? Did they have a heart attack every time it happened? Or were they just normal people, who happened to have a bad game? That can happen. You don't have to be mentally insane to have a terrible performance.
In other words, variance is a normal thing :) Humans are supposed to vary :)