My calculator spit out different stats: Possibility - .03
Probability - .000000001%
Is there any chance that a 1300 rated player can beat a 2700 rated player?
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twighead wrote:
That means it will happen
No! it only means it could.
Why is this thread so big? The answer is obvious. Admins, please shut this thread down. It's completely pointless.
JSB518 wrote:
What makes you think that a 2700 blunder will be found and refuted by a 1300 within equal time controls? A true 1300 player has absolutely zero chance of beating a 2700 player under equal time conditions.
You are writing as if you never met Livia Lindstad. She is rated 1184 now. When she climbs to the 1300s she will be a mean crushing machine, and no one, not even GMs can feel safe. I assure you, that girl is powerful, and her positional understanf\ding is very good. She doesnt blunder. She is the reigning
Norwegian girl 10 years old champion.
Lindstand's rating might blow right through 1300 and settle above 1500 or 1600. But... a GM can feel very safe against her. Ratings are numerical statistical values but they do not justify or apply to mathematical probability in any way.
Elo's represent strength and not probabilities. I have zero chance of running faster than Bolt; Zero chance of outlifting an Olympic power lifter; Zero chance of our boxing a professional and zero chance of drawing a picture better than Frazetta. It's not possible - and it's not going to happen.
Basically, an 1800 has a near zero chance of beating a GM. 2700's eat regular GM's for breakfast and lunch. All day.
I'm 2030 USCF and I have a ZERO chance of beating a 2700 OTB and would have to play hundreds of games with one of them to get a draw... IF I'm lucky one time - with white...when he has a cold...and he drank too much NyQuil ...and his wife left him ...if he hasn't played in a month.
He'd have to step into my preparation too.
well in theory because if someone who is an expert at chess just starts online and already has the strategy and skill but has just started playing online...but for someone legitimately at that rank it is a very low chance for success..just a sliver...if the expert makes a HUGE mistake it will most likely blow up in there face by giving the beginner a really big opening!
Well yes, a 1300 on his way up can beat an expert. I've seen it happen. GM's aren't experts. And Super GM's are mind bogglingly prepared.
DJsStudio wrote:
Lindstand's rating might blow right through 1300 and settle above 1500 or 1600. But... a GM can feel very safe against her. Ratings are numerical statistical values but they do not justify or apply to mathematical probability in any way.
Elo's represent strength and not probabilities. I have zero chance of running faster than Bolt; Zero chance of outlifting an Olympic power lifter; Zero chance of our boxing a professional and zero chance of drawing a picture better than Frazetta. It's not possible - and it's not going to happen.
Basically, an 1800 has a near zero chance of beating a GM. 2700's eat regular GM's for breakfast and lunch. All day.
I'm 2030 USCF and I have a ZERO chance of beating a 2700 OTB and would have to play hundreds of games with one of them to get a draw... IF I'm lucky one time - with white...when he has a cold...and he drank too much NyQuil ...and his wife left him ...if he hasn't played in a month.
He'd have to step into my preparation too.
If the GM makes a blunder (blunders also can happen to GMs) Livia will be extremely dangerous. I dont expect her to defeat any blunderfree GMs before she reaches at least FM herself , maybe four years from now if she chooses to exercise enough. The chances that a GM blunders bad enough is very small, but larger than nothing.
Jun 5, 2017
0
#5230
My friend Nelson beat a GM one time a long long time ago in a galaxy far far away....but he was rated around 1600...a Jeti rated only 1300 may have trouble....
Apparently Li Chao (2720) played Liu Chuming (1335) in a classical game yesterday and won. Chance missed, we are still waiting for 13xx rated players to beat a 27xx player...
chumming?
True 1300's are really bereft of good chess. At least a 1800 or 1900 can spot simple threats and understands liquidation and development. I melted a 1600 the other day and all he did was make simple average moves and couldn't spot developmental errors or tactics. Then he hung a rook.
True 1300's OTB are very inept at good chess. So a better question may be something like, "Is there any chance a 1900 rated player could be a 2700 rated player?"
now we we start getting into the 0.00001% chances.
bluepear wrote:
are we talking about tennis
Stop posting 1-liners in every big thread you can find. Get some attention from mommy and daddy.
r v talking bout tennis
5000 posts later and people are still talking about this? Wow, time to stop 
In blitz or bullet there is a chance. Here a 1400 is beating the very good GM Maxim Dlugy:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LW-OYSedh8s
In classic timecontrol the chances are less.
I think a lot of debattants here are underestimating us 1300-1400s. Dont do that. Once I underestimated a 1750 and lost.
Jun 10, 2017
0
#5238
I must read all 5431 posts to see if there is anything new to be said. There is about as much chance of that as a 1300 beating a 2700.
If I read 10 posts a day it will take about 18 months before I am able to post again (if anything new comes up).
Jun 10, 2017
0
#5239
This has more to do with the law of infinate probability than chess. I say 99% chance that this has happened before or will in the future.
Possibility - 100%
Probabiliy - 0.03%