Max elo estimation for 25 y.o beginners

Finegold ‘made it’ - he might have been a master in his teens but he was around 1150 as a middle-school kid. I was at 1150 too around that age.

The difference between him and most kids and adults is that he had help he could tap into to improve (namely his dad, family, and chess clubs) that I, and most people, don’t. He was not alone in his journey. And there was no internet at the time, where you can find now master and grandmaster willing to teach for a price.

But you know what, mate. Keep telling yourself that and be the Debbie Downer. If it fits you to be disheartening and demoralizing, good for you.

Let me tell you this, though : it’s people who spoke like you like who managed to discouraged me from seeking to improve at all. And with hindsight, I regret listening and paying attention to people like you, instead of the chess mentor who tried his best to tell me I could do it - even at my young adult age.

But now in my old geezer age of 43, if someone wants to try even if they have a 1% shot, I say go at it. Do the journey, and you miss 100% of the shots you don’t take. If it takes you 30 years to become a national master, well who cares. You can still

I’ll be 50 before I’m even NM 💀

I’ll add this: No one says it is easy. No one said it’s a certainty.

BUT, it is definitely possible. As in, « try and odds you will fail, but you might succeed ».

And even if you are not a « 2000 » wiz at the end… you will still be a very, very good chess player - a god among ants.

My way of viewing it is it will not help people if I lie to them. Downer or not, the truth is very important. The OP is asking how good they can become as a beginner at 25. Can they get a title? Yes, absolutely. Is it likely? No, absolutely not. I've been playing chess for about 20 years, and I'm answering the question with the knowledge I've gained from my personal experience of being around tournament chess as well as having read and commented in the forums for 10+ years. I'm not trying to slant it one way or the other.

In no other area does a beginner ask whether or not they can be world class. You don't walk into a boxing gym asking how long until your first title fight. You don't go for art lessons asking how long until your art will sell for millions or be put in a meusem. But for some reason beginners want to know how long until they're one of the best players on the planet... well the truth is unless you have a perfect storm of genetics and environent you're not going to be one of the best... you call this being a downer, but it shouldn't be any more of a downer to tell a beginner ice skater that they probably wont be going to the olympics 10 years from now, it's being realistic.

I'll tell you another not-so-secret... the people who improve to master level love chess. They weren't asking "how long until I'm a master?" They only wanted to play and learn as much as possible because it was so much fun they couldn't get enough... then one day years later they're a master. That's how real improvement works. So now I'll give some actual downer advice that may not be true, but it's just my opinion... anyone asking about titles on day 1 isn't cut out for it. They don't have the proper motivation and wont make it.

I see the OP has played about 700 games in the last month. That's a very good sign that passion exists If they combine that with some kind of structured learning, then it wouldn't surprise me if they gained something like 500 rating points in a year, and who knows when their improvement will stop.

I used to like to say... when a beginner imagines the skills and knowledge of a GM, they're usually imaging something around 1300-1500 level

In the past I've had the misfortune of reading a few comments on the YouTube videos of Hikaru... these people are frequently impressed by feats even I do regularly in games. "Wow he used multiple prevmoes" or "wow he looked away from the board to calculate." It's pretty silly. They have zero concept of how good he is or what even makes him good (and of course I don't understand it either since I'm not near that level)

Again, no one says it would be easy, but ‘not easy’ is not the same as ‘impossible’.

Hunger is a very powerful motivator. Tell them they might beat the odds and they will try to move mountains - and sometimes they do.

I caution you that your attitude is the #1 enemy of the global amateur chess community if it wants to thrive - if the message is “don’t even try to get gud unless you are a chess magician in your diaper years” well guess what, there won’t be a lot of players trying.

The main quality of chess tournaments is that they are both Open and based on merit - you can participate in the higher tournaments as long as you pay the entry fee and if your ELO is high enough, you will face a M or GM who will utterly school you, which you can use then to analyze and improve.

In comparison, good luck entering a professional sports camp as an amateur - you won’t even last until the first cut, they will have you escorted out.

 

And you know, people like @tygxc who say beginner to 2000 in 1 year is possible, and I strongly disagree...

It's not like I'm closed to the idea that I could be wrong. If someone came in and said, "hold on a minute llama, I play in ____ city, and I know 5 local players who did that, here are links to their USCF / FIDE rating graphs as proof" I'd say wow, I was probably wrong, because that seems to be much more common than I thought, thanks for informing me.

https://ratings.fide.com/profile/240990/chart

Just an example from 1626 in September 2014 to 2106 in September 2015.

Not to say it is common: it is not common, and most fail while they do all kinds of wrong things.

A 9 year old who is a future GM gaining 400 points in a year, sure, that's common... in fact I've seen lots of kids gain 400 points in a year.

A true beginner would be rated below zero. A true beginner is someone who didn't know how the rook moved 1 hour ago, and hasn't played any chess-like games. Even after you explain it to them, a true beginner will still be confused about promotion, stalemate, en passant, etc. A world class rate of improvement for a player like this might have them at 1500 after 1 year. Average would be, I don't know, 1000 or something.

@30

Original poster:  'It took me like 2 month, to get to 1388 from absolute zero.'

I've never read a personal testament of improvement that wasn't misleading or an outright lie.

And it's often unintentional. Kids these days don't even know what ratings are. They'll tell you they're rated 1500, but wont mention it's lichess classical, in which case it's something like a beginner's rating... but they don't know that. They think 1500 is 1500.

When I say 1500 after 1 year is world class, I'm talking about FIDE. OP is probably around 1000 level OTB.

Probably not even GM is completely out of the question if you start late, but...

For such a person to become a GM, they would have to:

1) Have a very good talent for chess to begin with, perhaps enough to be in the top 100 players if they started as a kid or something like that.
2) To somehow have the will to learn and play chess all day, every day (maybe a little bit of exaggeration but not by much )
3) To somehow have the funds to support himself/herself while doing this, and the funds to hire coaches and the best training they can get

In practice, there is no example today who successfully did this, which is why people say it is impossible to do this.

If being a chess GM would bring the person a lot of money, probably there would be a few examples in the world like that or close to that, but not when there is not a real incentive for this.

I dare say u will be 2400 on chess.com if u continue working as hard as you are now on your game, plus put some additional demands on your self , do 100 puzzles a day, play 5 puzzle rushes in survival mode every day, and try playing blindfold chess , may u become a master one day soon, my prayers with u

we monkeys dont have many words to describe the huge chasm between literally impossible and for all intents and purposes impossible. We rarely deal with odds below 1% in day to day life.

clinging to "not impossible" simply isnt helpful.  can someone become 2000 after 1 year from pure  beginner?. Well, carlsen reached 1900 in one year so big I impossible it is probably not, but it is so improbable that to even discuss is a form of deception.

i think adult beginners can go far if they have a talent and are willing to sacrifice everything in their life for it. But GM's that started after18 are pretty much unheard of (as it is,the only one that may have done this is GM Suba and i get the feeling he didnt learn to move the pieces at 19, other examples like Shaw and Hawkins were decent club players as adolescents. Some late blooming asian players were actually masters in other visually heavy  games before picking up chess so food for thought.

In the Lex Fridman podcast Carlsen said he started late because he wasn't playing until 8 years old... he described it as late because he was going up against kids who had been playing for 2-3 years already, so he felt behind. He said he only surpassed them because he was completely obsessed and worked on chess all the time. He also had parents who could afford to give him coaches and travel around Europe to big tournaments.

Obvoiusly OP isn't asking to be world champ, but it's useful to note that there are plenty of people who start young, work very hard, and have multiple professional coaches along the way... in other words doing these things doesn't guarantee success... and depending on your goal, doing that much is only average.

Reasonable plan. The only slight problem is that a day only has 24 hours and not 2400.

In your spare time you eat and sleep. 4-5 hours per day is basically a full time job already.

If u really really desire to become a master then besides the things I mentioned in my previous note u also need to do the following 1. Find your self some novices (not too bright, the dumber the better) and take it upon your shoulders to make reasonable chess players out of them , this activity will force u to study the basics again in order to teach your students and hence any holes in your own foundation knowledge will be filled, 2) try playing simultaneous against 4 of your students, this will help you in preparing sharp gambit quick knockout type of openings which later on u can use against more skilled opponents too, 3) offer your FM coach a bonus money for every time he beats u in a game, the pain of losing money will force u to play better and will force your FM coach to play better too as he will want to make more money, man u have to put in the hard yards if u want big results

1388 online isn't as good as 1388 at in-person tournaments. You'll probably struggle against 1200-level players in those tournaments.