New writeup on candidates from 538 - Chess Forums

easchner

Nov 27, 2017

0

#1

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/two-americans-are-one-win-from-the-world-chess-championship/

TLDR;

Candidates Tournament simulations

	PLAYER	WORLD RANK		CHANCE OF WINNING
🇦🇲	Levon Aronian	2	21.2%	–
🇺🇸	Fabiano Caruana	3	17.6	–
🇦🇿	Shakhriyar Mamedyarov	3	17.6	–
🇺🇸	Wesley So	6	12.3	–
🇷🇺	Vladimir Kramnik	7	11.9	–
🇨🇳	Ding Liren	10	8.4	–
🇷🇺	Alexander Grischuk	11	6.9	–
🇷🇺	Sergey Karjakin	13	4.2	–

easchner

Nov 27, 2017

0

#2

IWriteCodeGeniusBoy wrote:

Oliver Roeder is a psuedoscientist. I wouldn't trust any of his number obviously. I mean look at it. Do we all really belive that Liren is a better player than Grischuk? Grischuk was one of the first to popularize the Dutch Opening and regarded by many as the man responsible for revitalizing D4.

Also Caruana is one of the weakest players of his generations. We all remember Caruana vs. Karjakin circa 2012 where Caruana blundered away 9 points worth of peices before move 16. He admitted after the match that he didn't even know what a "Chess Opening" was and most of his GM wins have been attributed to luck.

Wesley So is also weak in endgame. I recall watching him play Karjakin circa 1989 and blundering away 6 pawns in 4 minutes. The crowd was agast with Ooohs and Ahhhs as we watched So crumble under the pressure.

This list is a JOKE. An absolute travesty to the sport. I hope we as a community can understand why.

Thank you,

The list is the members who have earned an invitation to the Candidates through play, each among the best in the world.

The percentages he gives are based on current actual FIDE ratings for each player and the percentage chance of winning each game against each other that those numbers correspond to (as is stated in the formulas that actually derive those ratings.) From there he did a million tournament Monte Carlo simulation based on their current odds in each match.

Certainly with more insight one could put their thumb on the scale and change the odds a little, such as Karjakin winning it just this year or someone playing "hot" currently or whatever. However the method chosen is both mathematically defensible and sound.

DrSpudnik

Nov 27, 2017

0

#3

I thought Caruana is Italian and So is Phillipino?!? Or did I miss something?

easchner

Nov 27, 2017

0

#4

DrSpudnik wrote:

I thought Caruana is Italian and So is Phillipino?!? Or did I miss something?

Originally, but both have since moved to the US and now play as Americans. So is the current US champion as well. Not commenting on the politics of changing your banner, just that they have.

easchner

Nov 27, 2017

0

#5

IWriteCodeGeniusBoy wrote:

Wesley So is also weak in endgame. I recall watching him play Karjakin circa 1989 and blundering away 6 pawns in 4 minutes. The crowd was agast with Ooohs and Ahhhs as we watched So crumble under the pressure.

Missed this the first time because of how off your post was, but neither So nor Karjakin were alive in 1989, so that must have been a heck of a game.

MickinMD

Nov 28, 2017

0

#6

THINK about it. If Caruana really knows nothing about openings, So crumbles and is weak on endgames, they would not currently be ranked #3 and #6 in the World. Both were ranked #2 at various points in 2017.

Everyone has bad games and bad periods. Everybody saw Bobby Fischer drop a Bishop due to a poison pawn against Spassky, but no one assumed he was going to lose the World Championship match.

easchner

Nov 28, 2017

0

#7

He's obviously a troll. Only joined a few weeks ago and has played exactly two games. Better to just leave him be.

FM chuddog

Nov 28, 2017

0

#8

IWriteCodeGeniusBoy wrote:

@MickinMD Fischer purposely dropped that pawn. Have you not seen the piece about him and Wesley So in "Chess Times" last month? Spassky suspected posin pawn so Fischer indulged him with dropping said pawn knowing that it wouldnt open up E6 for the inevitable checkmate. I really recommend that you study the game a little closer because it's clear you don't know what you're talking about.

Caruana REALLY doesn't know anything about openings. He gets lucky. Have you watched him play? Typically opening C4? I mean he doesn't understand the game like the other players on this list.... much like you i would guess PLEEB

Your logic is amazing. Let's continue in the same vein:

Caruana doesn't know openings.

So is weak in endgames.

Aronian lacks creativity.

Mamedyarov is weak in tactics.

Ding knows nothing about positional sacrifices.

Kramnik is a terrible positional player.

Grischuk is worthless as a theoretician.

Karjakin can't defend worse positions.

easchner

Nov 28, 2017

0

#9

You need help.