Occam's Razor Supports that Hans Niemann did not cheat against Magnus, or in OTB in general.

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CrusaderKing1
PawnTsunami wrote:
CrusaderKing1 wrote:

That's why it's likely Hans may consider a lawsuit against Magnus, and Dugly seems like he will.

This is the type of slander that court systems should and is be used for. No proof OTB cheating but being defamed, in a way that could effect his career. 

Hans will not sue anyone.  Nor will Dlugy.  They will make the threat, but never actually follow through because even they know that during discovery, more stuff about them will come out.  For example, it is very easy to refute Dlugy's claim that he was crowdsourcing moves from his students during Title Tuesday events by issuing a subpoena for the list of students in the class at the time and asking them to tell their version.  Additionally, Magnus has not said anything directly that would carry any weight in a defamation lawsuit.  He has offered his opinion, but you cannot win a defamation lawsuit over someone's opinion.

CrusaderKing1 wrote:

The more Magnus has said on the topic, the less I think his character is respectable. He is trying to ruin someones career for having the audacity to beat him with the black pieces. 

If you actually think that is Magnus' motivation, you haven't been following chess but for the last 10 minutes.  I'd almost be willing to wager that you had never heard of Magnus Carlsen prior to the Queen's Gambit airing on Netflix.

What is his motivation? To stop cheating OTB in chess, but ONLY after he loses against someone, and not calling them out BEFORE?

It makes no sense. 

Magnus might not even be privy to understand his own actions, but it's clear that his ego was bruised after losing to Hans, and apparently that's grounds for trying to ruin his chess career.

Not saying anything before he was losing to Hans, only after, of course. 

PawnTsunami
CrusaderKing1 wrote:

What is his motivation? To stop cheating OTB in chess, but ONLY after he loses against someone, and not calling them out BEFORE?

It makes no sense. 

Magnus might not even be privy to understand his own actions, but it's clear that his ego was bruised after losing to Hans, and apparently that's grounds for trying to ruin his chess career.

Not saying anything before he was losing to Hans, only after, of course. 

You are either intentionally leaving out details, or are unaware of details.

Magnus did say something before - to the organizers.  FIDE has very harsh rules for publicly accusing someone of cheating, so saying something publicly would not have gone well for Magnus.  Instead, Magnus (and Nepo, and possibly a couple others from what Fabi has said) went to the Sinquefield organizers and asked for more enhanced anti-cheating measures before the tournament started.  Because they were laughed at, Magnus considered withdrawing from the event before it even started.

So, you have a guy that suspects another player of cheating, conveys his concern to the organizers, is laughed out, considers withdrawing, and then watches said player crush 2 of his contemporaries and himself in a row.  That is not an ego bruising issue - that is Magnus saying "I've had enough of this clown show".

To give a completely different sport as an example:  Last year, Leah Thomas was crushing women in NCAA swimming without really even trying.  There was talk about women lining up on the blocks and simply not moving when the races started to show their protests of the rather obvious unfairness of the situation.  They were told by their universities that if they did that, they would lose their scholarships.  Instead, they had to race, lose, and complain about it.  Was their complaint due to their bruised egos or the fact that they were forced to participate in a circus?

CrusaderKing1
PawnTsunami wrote:
CrusaderKing1 wrote:

What is his motivation? To stop cheating OTB in chess, but ONLY after he loses against someone, and not calling them out BEFORE?

It makes no sense. 

Magnus might not even be privy to understand his own actions, but it's clear that his ego was bruised after losing to Hans, and apparently that's grounds for trying to ruin his chess career.

Not saying anything before he was losing to Hans, only after, of course. 

You are either intentionally leaving out details, or are unaware of details.

Magnus did say something before - to the organizers.  FIDE has very harsh rules for publicly accusing someone of cheating, so saying something publicly would not have gone well for Magnus.  Instead, Magnus (and Nepo, and possibly a couple others from what Fabi has said) went to the Sinquefield organizers and asked for more enhanced anti-cheating measures before the tournament started.  Because they were laughed at, Magnus considered withdrawing from the event before it even started.

So, you have a guy that suspects another player of cheating, conveys his concern to the organizers, is laughed out, considers withdrawing, and then watches said player crush 2 of his contemporaries and himself in a row.  That is not an ego bruising issue - that is Magnus saying "I've had enough of this clown show".

To give a completely different sport as an example:  Last year, Leah Thomas was crushing women in NCAA swimming without really even trying.  There was talk about women lining up on the blocks and simply not moving when the races started to show their protests of the rather obvious unfairness of the situation.  They were told by their universities that if they did that, they would lose their scholarships.  Instead, they had to race, lose, and complain about it.  Was their complaint due to their bruised egos or the fact that they were forced to participate in a circus?

Why wouldn't Magnus quit the tournament before he lost to Hans?

Why wouldn't Magnus resign the games against Hans before he lost to Hans?

The only difference in Magnus's actions before and after he decided to call out Hans was a fair and square loss when he had the white pieces.

The only variable between Magnus deciding to call out Hans or not was him losing. That's it.

Ask yourself if Magnus would have thrown a hissy fit against Hans if he would have beat him. If the answer is 'no', then that tells you everything you need to know. 

 

MorningGlory84
PawnTsunami wrote:
CrusaderKing1 wrote:

What is his motivation? To stop cheating OTB in chess, but ONLY after he loses against someone, and not calling them out BEFORE?

It makes no sense. 

Magnus might not even be privy to understand his own actions, but it's clear that his ego was bruised after losing to Hans, and apparently that's grounds for trying to ruin his chess career.

Not saying anything before he was losing to Hans, only after, of course. 

You are either intentionally leaving out details, or are unaware of details.

Magnus did say something before - to the organizers.  FIDE has very harsh rules for publicly accusing someone of cheating, so saying something publicly would not have gone well for Magnus.  Instead, Magnus (and Nepo, and possibly a couple others from what Fabi has said) went to the Sinquefield organizers and asked for more enhanced anti-cheating measures before the tournament started.  Because they were laughed at, Magnus considered withdrawing from the event before it even started.

So, you have a guy that suspects another player of cheating, conveys his concern to the organizers, is laughed out, considers withdrawing, and then watches said player crush 2 of his contemporaries and himself in a row.  That is not an ego bruising issue - that is Magnus saying "I've had enough of this clown show".

To give a completely different sport as an example:  Last year, Leah Thomas was crushing women in NCAA swimming without really even trying.  There was talk about women lining up on the blocks and simply not moving when the races started to show their protests of the rather obvious unfairness of the situation.  They were told by their universities that if they did that, they would lose their scholarships.  Instead, they had to race, lose, and complain about it.  Was their complaint due to their bruised egos or the fact that they were forced to participate in a circus?

You're attempting to reason with an ideologue who's given to magical thinking. He likes arguing in circles to keep his simple brain entertained. Just ignore it.

MorningGlory84

IpswichMatt

Nothing worse than loud bananas.

Tja_05

This thread is highly entertaining. Hilarious, even.

MorningGlory84
Optimissed wrote:

I need to talk to some people here. After all, I'm given to magical thinking and this is the second time I've seen it mentioned, recently, as if it's something to be laughed at. OK, so I accept it's something to be laughed at but the only objection anyone should have against magical thinking would be because they assume it doesn't work and that therefore the magical thinker is retarded.

But what if it works?

I'm not laughing, there's just an irreconcilable difference between the scientific brain and the magical/superstitious thinker. For an excruciating illustration of this I recommend the video below. It does "work" evolutionarily. I think it's possible a majority of people are given to committed superstition which suggests it was selected for evolutionarily, probably because it has a survival advantage.

https://youtu.be/Bb5uuMskioo

UmarBadeko

Whether Hans cheated vs Magnus or not one thing that is clear is that he had cheated in the past online which he admitted and to be serious even I would doubt this guy if I was playing against him in real life or online

PawnTsunami
CrusaderKing1 wrote:

Why wouldn't Magnus quit the tournament before he lost to Hans?

Why wouldn't Magnus resign the games against Hans before he lost to Hans?

The only difference in Magnus's actions before and after he decided to call out Hans was a fair and square loss when he had the white pieces.

The only variable between Magnus deciding to call out Hans or not was him losing. That's it.

Ask yourself if Magnus would have thrown a hissy fit against Hans if he would have beat him. If the answer is 'no', then that tells you everything you need to know. 

 

Again, your logic is flawed because you are stating with the conclusion and trying to backfill it.

Magnus played Hans in the FTX Crypto Cup 2 weeks prior to the Sinquefield Cup.  Hans beat him with the black pieces in that event (and proceeded to lose the next 3 games to lose the match).  If you look at that event, you'll see a very odd pattern:  Hans played 1 game in each match with a T3 score of 100% in 5 matches (including the one with Duda before the power went out).  So, why would Magnus not have an issue playing him in that event (where Magnus was one of the organizers) and yet have a problem with him 2 weeks later?  Did you ever stop to consider that?  Or is your knowledge of chess history start in September 2022?

Elroch

It is pleasing to think so.

This is the same reason many people believe many things.

CrusaderKing1
PawnTsunami wrote:
CrusaderKing1 wrote:

Why wouldn't Magnus quit the tournament before he lost to Hans?

Why wouldn't Magnus resign the games against Hans before he lost to Hans?

The only difference in Magnus's actions before and after he decided to call out Hans was a fair and square loss when he had the white pieces.

The only variable between Magnus deciding to call out Hans or not was him losing. That's it.

Ask yourself if Magnus would have thrown a hissy fit against Hans if he would have beat him. If the answer is 'no', then that tells you everything you need to know. 

 

Again, your logic is flawed because you are stating with the conclusion and trying to backfill it.

Magnus played Hans in the FTX Crypto Cup 2 weeks prior to the Sinquefield Cup.  Hans beat him with the black pieces in that event (and proceeded to lose the next 3 games to lose the match).  If you look at that event, you'll see a very odd pattern:  Hans played 1 game in each match with a T3 score of 100% in 5 matches (including the one with Duda before the power went out).  So, why would Magnus not have an issue playing him in that event (where Magnus was one of the organizers) and yet have a problem with him 2 weeks later?  Did you ever stop to consider that?  Or is your knowledge of chess history start in September 2022?

Saying he cheated OTB isn't supported by any reputable individuals, especially not those highly trusted in the chess statistical world like Regan.

So if Magnus decided he's cheating based off of no evidence, or poorly perceived evidence in his mind, then that's his own undoing. 

PawnTsunami
CrusaderKing1 wrote:

Saying he cheated OTB isn't supported by any reputable individuals, especially not those highly trusted in the chess statistical world like Regan.

So if Magnus decided he's cheating based off of no evidence, or poorly perceived evidence in his mind, then that's his own undoing. 

You are either being disingenuous or daft, here.  Go back and reread what I wrote and see why your answer is asinine.

PawnTsunami
Optimissed wrote:

I don't think that PawnTsunami should speak the way he did. However, Regan being widely trusted and Regan being worthy of such widespread trust are different things. I have no first hand knowledge of Regan but he seems to be a self-promoter and there has been quite a number of comments critical of Regan's true expertise. I know I can't recommend "my instinct" to you but it tells me that in all likelihood, Regan's mission is to support the status quo at least for the time being, and to defuse accusations of cheating, which could have lasting repercussions. From what I've heard, Regan is the expert he is claimed to be.

For the record, I made no mention of Regan, his analysis, nor his expertise in that comment.  It was entirely pointing out that analyzing Magnus' behavior and coming to the conclusion that he was simply upset he lost with White is a flawed conclusion.

idilis

idilis
Optimissed wrote:

ABOUT a couple of years ago my son gave me an old fashioned double sided razor that takes standard blades. It came with one razor blade. I don't shave a lot but must have used it 40 times and only changed the blade last week.

Never tried those. Hate shaving, so I do it twice a week. Gillette mach3.  Was Sensor before but they didn't seem to sell the blades anymore. It's a scam.

FIRESTORMTHIEF

Shaving your beard is fun.

FIRESTORMTHIEF
CrusaderKing1 wrote:

The definition according to wikipedia is "a scientific and philosophical rule that entities should not be multiplied unnecessarily which is interpreted as requiring that the simplest of competing theories be preferred to the more complex or that explanations of unknown phenomena be sought first in terms of known quantities."

Hans has been playing well, beating players like Magnus and Aronian in important tournaments, but also losing to players like Fabiano. Just recently he lost against Fabiano with the white pieces.

This dude is not cheating OTB.

The witch hunt only exists because Magnus lost a game vs. Hans with the white pieces and now he's going out way to ruin his chess career because of a bruised ego.

That's the simplest and most logical explanation. Don't overcomplicate things.

And I say this as a master degree chemist and physician, often times the most simplest explanation is the most realistic.

"when you hear hooves, think horses, not zebras".

can you explain his new 100 million dollar lawsuit case against carlsen?

that's upright crazy

I see greed as well as other bad things

CrusaderKing1
FIRESTORMTHIEF wrote:
CrusaderKing1 wrote:

The definition according to wikipedia is "a scientific and philosophical rule that entities should not be multiplied unnecessarily which is interpreted as requiring that the simplest of competing theories be preferred to the more complex or that explanations of unknown phenomena be sought first in terms of known quantities."

Hans has been playing well, beating players like Magnus and Aronian in important tournaments, but also losing to players like Fabiano. Just recently he lost against Fabiano with the white pieces.

This dude is not cheating OTB.

The witch hunt only exists because Magnus lost a game vs. Hans with the white pieces and now he's going out way to ruin his chess career because of a bruised ego.

That's the simplest and most logical explanation. Don't overcomplicate things.

And I say this as a master degree chemist and physician, often times the most simplest explanation is the most realistic.

"when you hear hooves, think horses, not zebras".

can you explain his new 100 million dollar lawsuit case against carlsen?

that's upright crazy

I see greed as well as other bad things

If Hans didn't cheat OTB, which is seems like its the most likely case, then there were extremely questionable unlawful actions by many individuals exclaiming he cheated based on no evidence. These accusations hurt his income, opportunity costs, etc....I am not a lawyer. 

Usually when defamation really becomes illegal defamation, is when it hurts someones career. I actually think he has a case against Magnus, Hikaru, and other individuals who have somewhat defamed.

But I actually think his case against chess.com is probably a loss. Chess.com had evidence of its claims, and it avoided saying Hans cheated OTB.

But the claims against Magnus and Hikaru seem much more reasonable. 

 

MorningGlory84
FIRESTORMTHIEF wrote:
CrusaderKing1 wrote:

The definition according to wikipedia is "a scientific and philosophical rule that entities should not be multiplied unnecessarily which is interpreted as requiring that the simplest of competing theories be preferred to the more complex or that explanations of unknown phenomena be sought first in terms of known quantities."

Hans has been playing well, beating players like Magnus and Aronian in important tournaments, but also losing to players like Fabiano. Just recently he lost against Fabiano with the white pieces.

This dude is not cheating OTB.

The witch hunt only exists because Magnus lost a game vs. Hans with the white pieces and now he's going out way to ruin his chess career because of a bruised ego.

That's the simplest and most logical explanation. Don't overcomplicate things.

And I say this as a master degree chemist and physician, often times the most simplest explanation is the most realistic.

"when you hear hooves, think horses, not zebras".

can you explain his new 100 million dollar lawsuit case against carlsen?

that's upright crazy

I see greed as well as other bad things

It's a frivolous lawsuit and form of posturing designed to misdirect, no doubt egged on by ambulance chasing lawyers who are rife in America's hysterically litigious society.

The parallels between this and the Lance Armstrong situation are striking. I strongly suspect Niemann has personality disorders such as grandiose narcissism and sociopathy.

Carlsen is domiciled in Norway so even if this symbolic lawsuit isn't dismissed on first hearing, Carlsen has no obligation to respond to it.