Black has a huge theoretical burden in this line for OTB play and I think a well-prepared White player need not fear it.
Ponz Says He Can Refute Ponziani!

The 2nd finished games is FM Bluebird1964 who is playing without a chess engine. He received advice or consultation with a 2500 player but I am fairly sure this was before the game. Playing this variation without a chess engine is very hard. These games are unrated
and chess engines are allowed and even encouraged.

There is a game with Mainline_Novelty on the 12th move in the common position. White's 13th move is critical...

There is a game UIUCBoss vs ponz111 but not part of this exhibition..
Please note when I say "refutation" of the Ponziani--I say this with tongue in cheek as White can always avoid the main lines and play this:

There is a game UIUCBoss vs ponz111 but not part of this exhibition..
Please note when I say "refutation" of the Ponziani--I say this with tongue in cheek as White can always avoid the main lines and play this:
If White doesn't have anything better than equality on move 4, isn't that close enough to a refutation to not be worth quibbling over? Of course, I'm sure it's still playable at club level and as the occasional surprise weapon at higher levels.

Sapientdust
These lines are very complicated. Thus a player with White can explore through these lines and pick out the Fraser lines which are maybe drawish after 20 some moves but before the 20th move there is room [and in this variation lots of room] for error for either side.
Thus for this variation to be a real threat to the Ponziani, a player would have to discover exactly how to play the Fraser against a bunch of White replies. White is not going to play 12. Qa6 ,for example, after looking at these games.
What I am saying if this: 1. few players at any level [up to say 2300] are going to even try this complicated line [as Black against the Ponziani]. If someone does try this line against is strong Ponziani player then the strong player will have looked through these lines to find the best variation for White.
Here is what often happened when I was playing the 15 minute games
1. e4 e5 2. Nf3 Nc6 3. c3 d5 [they heard 3. .... d5 a good line vs the Ponziani]
4. Qa4 and now they do not know what to do next?--I have seen this playing experts and masters.
Does this tend to say that with very best play the Ponziani will end in a draw? The answer is "yes"
However you can say the same thing for any king pawn opening starting with 1. e4 e5 and that includes the very respected Ruy Lopez. Why, say this regarding the Ruy Lopez? Because at the highest levels and that is Centaur Chess the Petroff Defense can hold White to a draw and thus at those levels you may never event get to the Ruy Lopez. The Petroff
Defense is 1. e4 e5 2. Nf3 Nf6!
I cannot prove this with a 32 piece tablebase but the tendency at the highest levels has been [for the past 100 years] more and more draws.
But that is at the highest levels and we do not play at the highest levels.
We play at the "practical level" and that is why, the Ponziani has a high success rate [right behind the Ruy Lopez]
By the way, I have been asked why do I as a Ponziani expert and fan show these lines and play these lines against the Ponziani? There are two reasons: 1. I am always seeking what I call the "truth" in chess even if it might be something to test my Ponziani Opening.
2. This line is quite entertaining and also very unusual. Look at the game vs 1 random as one example. While I get a some criticism for showing these lines---for most players the games and lines are entertaining.
They are also educational--who would have thought there would even be such unusual lines?
We agree LoekBergman, in fact my GM pal says if he met this line OTB without any prep he said he would feel "very uncomfortable".
We think the position could end up equal?
I think that white needs a lot of brute force calculation to get out of it alive, but that is pure intuition. The position is too complex. There are so many possibilities in this situation.
I would say in the short run is black in favour. If white survives and manages to bring all his pieces into play, then has white the biggest chance I would say.