Rating and probability of win-draw-lost
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Yes there is a formula if u was 1100 and they 1000 u would expect a 64% chance of winning to there 36% and 76% to 24% for someone 200 points diff. as far as i know there isnt any difference no matter what rating class they are this is just a general guide line a rough estimation of players skills ok. i will post and article on this topic soon since i have one to show u thats how i know the percentile is....
thanks littleman for the reply. i look forward to your article
Your welcome it might take a day or 2 to write it all down so be on the look out for it ok.....
Jan 9, 2018
0
#5
A better approximation of the chance of drawing can be found here: https://chess-db.com/public/research/draw_rate.html Keeping the rating difference fixed it tends to increase with player elo. Similarly for wins and losses.
I think middle level players are easy to win in a 100 point gap, cause 2600-2700 are BOTH really good, so the game will be good. 1100s may miss easy wins against 1000s, so players IN THE MIDDLE will win/lose more than draw
Dear chesslovers,
I never take ratings seriously but these questions do bug me for some reason:
1) Suppose I am rated 1000 and my opponent 1100. What is the "expected win"? Or draw in this case?
2) If my opponent is rated 1200. What is the expected win and draw?
3) Now if I am rated 2600 and my opponent 2700. Is the expected win or draw the same as in case 1? Is the rating system bias towards the high end? Would a 2700 find it harder to beat the 2600 than a 1100 would to a 1000?
4) Is there a formula to calculate the expected draw? I have the formula for ratings calculation but how do you convert that to calculate probability? Sorry I am from the arts stream. I love maths but took business subjects instead.
Thank you in advance for helping me.