talent vs practice in kids
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Tiger Woods started golf at age 2; look where he is now. In your perspective your kid is in 'training', but for him, it's just fun. One hour a day is good. Of course this should continue without sacrificing his other activities, whether social, school or others. 
Hi, Chesskidmom.
I’m new in this place. I love to play chess, and I am not a great chess player. I speak English as a second language: I will tray, however, to tell my opinion on "talent vs practice" dilemma. For security purposes, I will reserve a little gap for apparent exceptions. There are those anywhere.
I think there are not any kind of "gifts." Whereas we call them "talent," "destine," etc. How the human mind works?, how motivations arise from the deep unconscious to compulsively shape the human behavior? These are questions hard to deal with. But, human being got everything he got... by practice. He got all his goals without any real knowledge of how his motivations worked out... except a bundle of invented myths, legends, and tales to justify (and sanctify) his personal and selfish purposes. That is the historical human being. What makes the human motivations so complex is the social character of the human mind. And human society is a turbulent historical river of changes. If that still looks not enough, you can take a look at the cultural conditioning of human behavior.
Let me make a distinction between human capacities and faculties. For example: all mammal (except the elephant) are born with the physical capacity to jump. But only a few human beings get the faculty of to jump over two meters. They are called athletes. And they gradually get that faculty by practice... until the jumping capacity is aging dismissed. So, I think your kid has the capacity (if you want, the talent) to become a chess player really good. And the practice, through a complex net of personal motivations, will validate his "talent."
At least, to play chess will train his young mind for reasoning and planing. It’s something worth for human mind. We, like all animals, are born able to feel... but, we need to learn to reasoning, to speak, to read, to write a language... to think. If You encourage your son to get his own way to reasoning, and planing now, he will do it ever all his life. That I think even if your son, after childhood never play chess again. Probably his ability to win you is an important part of his motivations.
Fulano 
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I think that if you put in the work then your can be fairly good no matter what. However grandmaster level requires natural ability and hard work.
Don't be worried about the 20% win rate. He will get better with practice and it will improve; esspiecially if it has already been proven at his school.
And remember that chess is meant to be fun; don't turn it into a chore.
I found the Polgar story very interesting. Apparently their father was doing research on childhood "brilliance" exhibited in cases like mozart, gauss, etc...trying to find some commonalities. Starting young is a key. There is a youtube link...let me see...it's this BBC special (like 6 parts) called "My Brilliant Brain" it will probably answer some questions. Oh here's the video!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bPuHhWs8zy8
enjoy!
Possibly of interest:
"... the NM title is an honor that only one percent of USCF members attain. ..." - IM John Donaldson (2015)
http://www.jeremysilman.com/shop/pc/Reaching-the-Top-77p3905.htm
https://www.chess.com/article/view/can-anyone-be-an-im-or-gm
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/kids-fight-stereotypes-using-chess-in-rural-mississippi/
http://brooklyncastle.com/
"To become a grandmaster is very difficult and can take quite a long time! ... you need to ... solve many exercises, analyse your games, study classic games, modern games, have an opening repertoire and so on. Basically, it is hard work ... It takes a lot more than just reading books to become a grandmaster I am afraid." - GM Artur Yusupov (2013)
http://www.qualitychess.co.uk/ebooks/QandAwithArturYusupovQualityChessAugust2013.pdf
https://www.chess.com/blog/smurfo/book-review-insanity-passion-and-addiction
http://www.nytimes.com/1988/09/26/books/books-of-the-times-when-the-child-chess-genius-becomes-the-pawn.html
https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexknapp/2017/05/05/making-a-living-in-chess-is-tough-but-the-internet-is-making-it-easier/#4284e4814850
https://www.chess.com/news/view/is-there-good-money-in-chess-1838
"... Many aspiring young chess players dream of one day becoming a grandmaster and a professional. ... But ... a profession must bring in at least a certain regular income even if one is not too demanding. ... The usual prize money in Open tournaments is meagre. ... The higher the prizes, the greater the competition. ... With a possibly not very high and irregular income for several decades the amount of money one can save for old age remains really modest. ... Anyone who wants to reach his maximum must concentrate totally on chess. That involves important compromises with or giving up on his education. ... it is a question of personal life planning and when deciding it is necessary to be fully conscious of the various possibilities, limitations and risks. ... a future professional must really love chess and ... be prepared to work very hard for it. ... It is all too frequent that a wrong evaluation is made of what a talented player can achieve. ... Most players have the potential for a certain level; once they have reached it they can only make further progress with a great effort. ... anyone who is unlikely to attain a high playing strength should on no account turn professional. ... Anyone who does not meet these top criteria can only try to earn his living with public appearances, chess publishing or activity as a trainer. But there is a lack of offers and these are not particularly well paid. For jobs which involve appearing in public, moreover, certain non-chess qualities are required. ... a relevant 'stage presence' and required sociability. ... All these jobs and existences, moreover, have hanging above them the sword of Damocles of general economic conditions. ... around [age] 40 chess players ... find that their performances are noticeably tailing off. ..." - from a 12 page chapter on becoming a chess professional in the book, Luther's Chess Reformation by GM Thomas Luther (2016)
http://www.qualitychess.co.uk/ebooks/LuthersChessReformation-excerpt.pdf
Hi - I was wondering if anyone here has any suggestions...
My second grade son is a chess fanatic -- he just worships the game (took his chess set to his baseball game because he said there is so much time in the dug out maybe the kids will play me a game - we have since quite baseball little league) My questions are:
1. How long in chess before you can spot true talent vs a pure love for the game and practice to get good? My little guy does really great at his after chess club and is now beating everyone at his school program but when he goes to play in an evening chess with kids and adults from other areas he wins maybe one of 5 games. He's been going for about 3 months now and doesn't seem to be getting any better at those events while he has been playing school chess for a year now and shown amazing improvement.
2. Is chess a gift or can anyone become really good?
3. He really wants to be really Great -- how much practice is that going to take? He has started playing one or two games a day over the past month on his computer game Magestic Chess as he can of course now beat his dad and me is that the right computer game to be playing to learn the most?
4. I want to fully support him but want to keep it all in perspective for him if the "gift" for chess would have already appeared. How soon after being to play the game does that raw talent appear?
5. How long do the really great kids practice a day?
many many thanks for any thoughts!