Top Gen Z Players Are Stronger Than Top Millennial Players Were at the Same Age

I don't know if anyone else has noticed this besides me.  But I have noticed that over the last 6 years since my return to USCF-rated OTB play that generation Z players (players born sometime between 1995 and 2010) seem to be substantially stronger than millennial (gen Y) players (players born sometime between 1984 and 1994).  

Back when I played in the 2007 VA State Scholastic Chess Championship in the HS Section at 18 years old, the highest rated player in the section was roughly 2100.  Same tournament and the same section 12 years later, 5-6 players rated above 2200 dominate the section (with a 2500 taking the #1 seed).

This doesn't  only apply to Virginia.  My observation applies to top 100 rating lists for each age group from 04/2007 to 04/2019.  Let's take the top 100 list for Age 18 players for the years 2007-2009 and 2017-2019:

April 2007 (Gen Y w/ BY 1988-89):  Median = 1939,  %(USCF>=2000) = 36%, %(USCF>=2200) = 9%       April 2008 (Gen Y w/ BY 1989-90):  Median = 2000,  %(USCF>=2000) = 50%, %(USCF>=2200) = 19%     April 2009 (Gen Y w/ BY 1990-91):  Median = 1965,  %(USCF>=2000) = 40%, %(USCF>=2200) = 12%    

April 2017 (Gen Z w/ BY 1998-99):  Median = 2105, %(USCF>=2000) = 79%, %(USCF>=2200) = 34%      April 2018 (Gen Z w/ BY 1999-00):  Median = 2087, %(USCF>=2000) = 73%, %(USCF>=2200) = 29%      April 2019 (Gen Z w/ BY 2000-01):  Median = 2150, %(USCF>=2000) = 82%, %(USCF>=2200) = 37%

Now let's summarize these findings:

Median rating for top 100 age 18 gen Y players ranged from 1939-2000.                                               Median rating for top 100 age 18 gen Z players ranged from 2087-2150.                                                  No overlap here.  Top Gen Z players at age 18 are/were generally rated higher than top Gen Y players were at age 18.

42% of top 100 age 18 gen Y players were rated at least 2000.                                                                   78% of top 100 age 18 gen Z players were rated at least 2000.                                                                   A significantly higher portion of top Gen Z players at age 18 are/were rated at least 2000 than top Gen Y players were at age 18.

13% of top 100 age 18 gen Y players were rated at least 2200.                                                                  33% of top 100 age 18 gen Z players were rated at least 2200.                                                                  A significantly higher portion of top Gen Z players at age 18 were rated at least 2200 than top Gen Y players were at age 18.

The reasoning for this is probably due to the advancements in technology over the last 20 years and that generation Z players basically grew up with the internet and had more access to chess sources on the web than millennial players did at the same age since the internet wasn't as big and diverse back when I was growing up.

I wonder if anyone else on this website besides me has noticed and made such an observation.

Sources:

[1] http://www.uschess.org/component/option,com_top_players/Itemid,374?op=list&month=0704&f=18&h=Top%20Age%2018

[2] http://www.uschess.org/component/option,com_top_players/Itemid,465?op=list&month=0804&f=18&h=Top%20Age%2018

[3] http://www.uschess.org/component/option,com_top_players/Itemid,523?op=list&month=0904&f=18&h=Top%20Age%2018

[4] http://www.uschess.org/component/option,com_top_players/Itemid,892?op=list&month=1704&f=usa&l=R:Top%20Age%2018.&h=Top%20Age%2018

[5] http://www.uschess.org/component/option,com_top_players/Itemid,908?op=list&month=1804&f=usa&l=R:Top%20Age%2018.&h=Top%20Age%2018

[6]  http://www.uschess.org/component/option,com_top_players/Itemid,929?op=list&month=1904&f=usa&l=R:Top%20Age%2018.&h=Top%20Age%2018

Nice, maybe chess.com or chessbase could use what you've organized here and publish an article on it, I think it's interesting.

That's good to hear.

Are you saying that the younger generation players has increased in strength a lot more compare to the strength increase of past generations (eg players born in the 70s compared to players born in the 60s)? Because good chess players, regardless of age, has been getting stronger since the beginning of time, that's not new.

I was just saying that the generation (Gen Z) after mine (Gen Y / Millennials) seems to have a higher proportion of stronger chess players (at least in the United States) than my generation and nothing to do with older generation. I just wanted to see if I was the only one who noticed that.  But it seems apparently that I am not the only one.

Top ratings have always been increasing. Some say due to artificial inflation.

Of course we only have to look at old FIDE top 10 lists to realize 2600 used to be world champion level. Now anyone below 2700, well it isn't even worth remembering their name, and you have to be 2800 to be world champ level.

But I've never seen stats tackle it from the other direction. Maybe it's been done I just haven't seen it.

This is, perhaps, a good argument against those who say higher ratings are due to artificial inflation, and that today's top players are not actually better than world champions of the 60s, 70s, etc.

Are athletes stronger in new generations!

Yes! Massively in all fields.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8COaMKbNrX0

There are tons of resources available in these days!

Look at this 9 years old kid, he trained 10,000 puzzles. (and other thousands of games)

https://lichess.org/@/PeshkaCh

For me, up to age of 15 , I had access to about 5 chess books only. (I got chessmaster CD early 20's with approx 100,000 database , and had the chance to train with computers)

And also this is what Giri says,

In my young age, the engines play horrible especially in opening and ending! But now they are more

1. quicker in analysis

2.  accurate in game play

That's an excellent piece of analysis William. I remember playing on Yahoo chess, and it was totally rubbish compared to chess.com. The training that is available now is so much better than it was in the past. I am sure that you are right in your conclusions William. I have spoken to older players who say that to keep their rating static, they are having to study hard to keep up with the newer generations. I don't believe the ratings inflation story since other methods such as CAPS show that todays top players are stonger than they were in the past, and players in other sports such as running are also better than in previous years, also due to improved training methods.

Good to hear

Thanks .

     I checked the kid's FIDE profile (as stated in his LiChess profile) and, apparently, he achieved an initial FIDE Standard rating of 1603 at the age of 5-6 years and is already ~2000 FIDE at age of only 9 years.  I guess this is one person who is determined to become GM someday (or if it is his parents that are pushing him to do it).  I mean his parents (or a close relative of his) were willing to pay a fee for giving him an AGM title.