16...e5! is best. It makes sense positionally, but I had to verify that it was correct tactically.
I'll look over your notes, but I would have looked at e5 for the opposite reasons. (I may be taking your phrasing too literally though.)
It looks like it has some tactics (h2, the fork on e4, opening up the rook against the queen) but positionally it seems bad. Positionally I'd want to work on the queenside. Meanwhile e5 helps both white's bishop on b2 and gives up control of / clears d4 for white.
Don't get me wrong, e5 looks good, I'd spend time calculating too, but to be honest I'd distrust it positionally.
Thanks. When you play online is it real money? I wouldn't want to lose a lot of money trying to learn. It's fun just watching it though, the announcers help me understand what's going on. I thought it was interesting when one player said "oh, you had the hand I was pretending to have" So it seems like you could get lucky, going in with a nothing hand, then scaring other into folding (as long as one of them doesn't have the best hand heh).
But betting patterns makes sense. I guess you play the odds both of the cards and how a player plays. It seems like you couldn't do that so well playing multiple games online though... unless it eventually becomes easy or something. It seems like there'd be so many people you couldn't keep track of people's patterns.