What is Kasparov on about with Ding Liren maybe not in Candidates?

Kasparov joined Anna Rudolf for this interview https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FpwE_nwjpX8 which is pretty interesting but there is something I don't understand which is he was saying Ding Liren has only 50/50 chance of being in the Candidates Tournament.

I thought it was all confirmed https://www.chess.com/news/view/2022-fide-candidates-participants

Is this some visa issue or about Karjakin CAS decision or something else?

Do they mention when the interview was recorded? I've watched the interview a few days ago, so I don't recall exactly. The editing and the references to the GCT Poland suggest it could be recorded somewhere around 24-26 May.

edit: to everyone that hasn't seen the interview, I highly recommend watching. it's great.

I don't know when it was recorded. It was published 2 days ago and Hikaru's one word response in the comments got me laughing.

maybe the visa yea

I assume he means visa issues, that was the reason why Ding didn't play in the grand prix back in March. I hope he's able to make it as a candidates without the world no.2 is unfortunate