When will we see a female world chess champion?

Hi guys. Give me your predictions on when we will see a female world chess champion and do you think it is more likely to happen in rapid/blitz compared to in classical?

Not anytime soon

When one of the top male players goes transgender.

most accurate answer

Impossible to predict. Could be as soon as 20 years from now, or much later than that. World champions are somewhat random. I'm sure if we asked "when will we see an Indian champion?" in the 80s when the Soviets were dominant  no one would've thought it would be as soon as 20 years later.

There don't seem to be any female candidates right now that could legitimately challenge. If a prodigious female player would become world champion 20 years from now at Magnus' age of 22, she would be 2 now and not on anyone's radar. It could be that soon. 

Or it could be 100+ years. Again the world championship is a string of extraordinary individuals. Predicting what type of people they would be is nearly folly.  

never

She wasn't a "serious contendor" for the world championship. She played horribly in the candidates tournament and was never close to even being the 2nd spot in the event. She was as close to being the champion as andreiken was when he played candidates 2014

Can you please explain why???

For what reason?

If Hou Yifan improves or other lady chess players. Also, you guys/gals forget that Judit Polgár's peak rating was 2735 in July 2005. Which other ladies have acheived over 2700...

Don't we already have a female WC? I was under the assumption that the two sexes are strictly separated by FIDE, whereas women have their own leagues, titles and of course, champions ... Sorry if this sounds naive, I don't really follow the offline world of Chess. 

@CannedAsparagus, incorrect.

Also, don't forget this:

In August 1998, Polgár became the first woman to ever win the U.S. Open, which was held at the Kona Surf Resort in Kailua-Kona, Hawaii. She shared the tournament victory with GM Boris Gulko as each scored 8–1. Typical of her aggressive style was her victory against GM Georgi Kacheishvili in which she sacrificed her queen for the attack.[122] - Wikipedia

Notice how it doesn't say U.S. Women's Open?

Also from Wikipedia, Judit slaughtered the world number 1:

In September 2002, in the Russia versus the Rest of the World Match, Polgár finally defeated Garry Kasparov in a game. The tournament was played under rapid rules with 25 minutes per game and a 10-second bonus per move. She won the game with exceptional positional play. Kasparov with black chose the Berlin Defence instead of his usual Sicilian, and Polgár proceeded with a line which Kasparov has used himself. Polgár was able to attack with her rooks on Kasparov's king, which was still in the centre of the board, and when he was two pawns down, Kasparov resigned.[145] The game helped the World team win the match 52–48.[146] Upon resigning, Kasparov immediately left by a passageway barred to journalists and photographers. Kasparov had once described Polgár as a "circus puppet" and asserted that women chess players should stick to having children. Polgár called the game "one of the most remarkable moments of [her] career".[103] The game was historic as it was the first time in chess history that a female player beat the world's No. 1 player in competitive play.[147]

Learn something new every day ...

good, now I have a clearer perspective as to how address OPs question: Never. I don't think women aren't as suited to play Chess as men are, and exceptional talents as Polgar are still lengths away from reaching the likes of Carlsen, Caruana, Firouza or any other future male prodigy. Women aren't dumber, but instead display different specialities/tendencies than men. This phenomenon is called: biological reality. 

You know what? I am convinced.

     Not in the next cycle or two, but there's no way to predict it. World champion class players have developed at different rates. Ten year old Boris Spassky beat Mikhail Botvinnik (easily the world's strongest player at the time) in a simul and progressed to the world title by age 32. Ten year old Magnus Carlsen had a FIDE rating of 900, but three years later was  GM, seven years later the world's highest-ranked player, three years more to become World Champion. Sammy Reshevsky was undoubtedly strong-GM strength by age 12 (before FIDE established title criteria) and contended for the championship but never won.

     So there may be someone of either gender somewhere who no one knows today but might become a title contender inside of ten years. How many top women players there are now or how likely the present top women might be to ever challenge for the title mean nothing, as we are speculating about one exceptional individual.

According to wikipedia, there has already been a female world champion: Judith Polgar was u12 and 14 world champion in the 80s.

For the main title, It could certainly happen, although currently, the trans option is more probable than the cis.

But there being a woman in the candidates is a necessary precondition.  That hasn't happened for several cycles.  Offering qualification via the World Cup opens up the route to candidates.  How many women participated in the World Cup this year?

It is a matter of perception. There is already one.

Just based on the way most societies are progressing in terms of gender pressures, I'd say maybe 50 years