Who will win the FIDE Candidates 2024?
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Callenchess27
Apr 21, 2024
0
#161
Callenchess27 wrote:
thanks
Have any details been settled, like where, prize fund, etc.?
I did not guess. I waited for the results. Go Gukesh!
Apr 21, 2024
0
#165
clearchesser wrote:
I did not guess. I waited for the results. Go Gukesh!
My hero
Uhohspaghettio1 wrote:
grasshopper_mouse wrote:
New odds if Fabiano wins and Gukesh wins.
That's very interesting, thanks for posting that and to whoever created it.
Do you know if that is taking colours into consideration? That would be very important at this level and could change things completely. I guess it must be with those odds, there's only 30 points separating their live rating.
So adding Nakamura's bars together - Nakamura only has around a one in three chance of still being in it after his game against Gukesh if that's correct. That goes contrary to at least my intuitive feeling on it, like I would have thought Nakamura would probably be still in it after his final match, now I'm a lot less confident.
When you think about it Gukesh is perhaps a bit underrated due to to being so young and having rapidly increasing skill, likely his rating hasn't quite caught up with his true performance as he continually develops.
However there's probably something to be said for Nakamura's experience and his being on a positive streak, that would likely counterbalance Gukesh being underrated.
One in three - so there I was feeling like it was almost a sure thing, but trying to objectively think that it was more like 60% or so (that he would still be in it, not that he would win), hits hard if his chances are really only 33%.
The game probability estimation takes into consideration who is white.
https://wismuth.com/elo/calculator.html#first_move=player1
But, I don't know how accurate the predictor is, especially in a tournament like this, and games where people must be playing for a win, and like you say Gukesh is player above his rating level.
Hikaru had to win against Gukesh in order to stay in it. So the probability is just the probability he wins the game. The probabilities that formula gives for the Hikaru Gukesh game are about:
Hikaru wins: 0.322
Draws: 0.551
Loses: 0.128
Expecions wrote:
Gukesh will lose to Ding prove me wrong
200% Gukesh will beat that fraud World Champion
Apr 21, 2024
0
#169
Anonymous_Dragon wrote:
Expecions wrote:
Gukesh will lose to Ding prove me wrong
200% Gukesh will beat that fraud World Champion
Whoa! Why insult ding?
sawdof wrote:
Anonymous_Dragon wrote:
Expecions wrote:
Gukesh will lose to Ding prove me wrong
200% Gukesh will beat that fraud World Champion
Whoa! Why insult ding?
Coz he never deserved to be the WC
Apr 21, 2024
0
#172
Not... Ding actually has a GOOD score against Gukesh so Gukesh probably will lose
Expecions wrote:
He deserved to be a WC more than Ian and THATS a fact!
He never deserved to be in the Candidates in the first place. And also got to the WC match coz of Carlsens' charity
Expecions wrote:
Not... Ding actually has a GOOD score against Gukesh so Gukesh probably will lose
Games are from when Gukesh was probably am average 2500-2600 GM
Apr 21, 2024
0
#176
Seems to me the game with Fabby and Nap I is a little fishy maybe I am the only one.
Expecions wrote:
[Removed: Offensive] ~W
cry