Why didn't Fischer play Karpov

Fischer was afraid he would lose to Karpov and thus did not agree to the match. Fischer was correct, he probably would have lost to Karpov.            

Laughable. In 1972 Karpov lost to: Gipslis, Karner, Padesvky, Chekhov and you say he would defeat Fischer? 

I have certain reservations about Fischer, especially as he aged and grew bitter, but I feel he was and continues to be the recipient of a grave disservice over the proposed title match with Karpov, a most worthy opponent.  I've spent a lot of time studying the Kalme article (mainly because my tiny brain can only absorb so much).  

Kalme's article is excruciatingly long (13 pages), devilishly detailed, complex and carefully presented - but completely worth delving into if one wants to be apprised of the complexity of the issues.

Kalme was eminently qualified to speak on the matter:

Over the years I've read dozens of debates on the Fischer-Karpov non-match.  Kalme's article has been referred to, cited, rejected, etc. but what's been most  obvious to me is that most people have never read it.  M. Barrie Richmond, MD. made similar conclusionss as Kalme, though Richmond's approached it from a different angle, as did Fred Cramer whose article followed Fischer's title resignation.

Kalme traced and analyzed  the WC match system since it started, collating the data and drawing comparisons.  He explained the various types of match systems with their flaws and virtues as well as other pertinent issues with these particular match proposals. Kalme also expressed his concern about people, particularly influential people, vocalizing sentiments that are conjectures, that are flat out wrong, that are misunderstood or that are simply created while ignoring, actually failing to research, the facts and the chronology of events where Fischer is concerned.

A lot of intelligent and thoughtful things have been said concerning this failed match, but few of those things have ever appeared on the internet.

I can't reproduce Kalme's article here, but I liked what he said in the introduction:

Another interesting text, one I I will reproduce here, is Fisher's enlightening letter the Larry Evans:

I rest my case.

"They're dead scared of me. Always have been."

Yes, Karpov would have defeated Fischer because of the mental state of Fischer.

@ponz: Until the Pasadena incident, Fischer was mentally ok.

@batgirl: I just fed the position to Stockfish 8 and Fischer was right: White wins.

It is not so certain Fischer was mentally ok until the Pasadena incident.

Yes, Fischer was right about the problem but a modern player of master strength would have also solved that problem and would also have seen the win.

Larry Evans, who gave the position, was a GM and claimed it was a draw.

You seem to know very little on the matters, so please do not post until you "made your homework".

About Fischer's "mental illness" he was never diagnosed so. A mentally ill person does not see a ckeckmate like Fischer did in 2006 with the game on Icelandic TV.

I do not care that Larry Evans was a GM and claimed  the position was a draw. Just about any modern master should be able to figure out that position.

Fischer may never have been diagnosed with a mental illness that we know of. That does not mean he did not have a mental illness. It could be that he was diagnosed with a mental illness and did not let the public know this. From his actions it appears he had some mental problems--enough so that [in my opinion] he could not have taken the stress of playing Karpov and it they had played--Karpov would have won.

And yes, I was around and interested when all of this was going on. 

Just a bit of trivia regarding Fischer's and Karpov's relative strength.

I have plotted Karpov's peak rating for each year between 1972 and 1992 against a linear decrease of Fischer's rating between last known official rating (1972) and the estimated 1992 rating. Just for the sake of it I threw Kasparov in the mix as well.

2 assumptions had to be made which are not necessarily true:

- Fischer's rating decreased linearly between 1972 and 1992.

- Fischer's 1992 rating was 2660. This was calculated based on the 17.5/30 score against Spassky who was rated 2560. Probably not 100% accurate since he played those 30 games against a single opponent.

If assumptions are true, it seems that sometime after 1984 both Kasparov and Karpov had overtaken Fischer. But in 1975?! In hindsight, it's understandable why Fischer's ghost was so omnipresent and many still considered him the best player in the world for the rest of the 70's and even early/mid 80s.

Suddenly the idea that Kasparov would have had to challenge Fischer instead of Karpov in 1984 doesn't seem that preposterous. 

I think it is a bit of a stretch to say that Fischer was OK until the "I WAS TORTURED IN THE PASADENA JAILHOUSE" incident.

Prior to that he was already reading hate literature, and mailing copies of things like "Secret World Government" and "The Protocols of the Elders of Zion" to soon-to-be-ex-friends, as well as staying in flophouses in downtown LA's skid row. And of course the signs of paranoia had been there for quite some time already, fearing the Russians would assassinate him, etc.

I think it's probably fair to say that the Pasadena incident caused him to become more unhinged than he already was, but he was far from OK before that. 

The exercise presented by alinfe is very very interesting. It makes us think. To be noted the fact that the three of them would be about the same rating in 1984.

@ponz: You said: "I do not care that Larry Evans was a GM..." The right answer from me is: I don't care what you are saying anymore.

@MrMojo: You said: "Prior to that he was mailing copies..." and the rest.  Do you have any proof of that? Or else is some sort of libel, very ugly against a dead man.

mcris, a grandmaster is not Gawd. A grandmaster can make mistakes and even an expert can sometimes beat a grandmaster.

mcris, it is in the book "Endgame" by Frank Brady. Jack Collins was one of the people he sent "Protocols" to, and I believe he discussed this in interviews that you can probably find online. I am pretty sure a lot of this appears in literally every book and article about Fischer that is not entirely chess-specific.

I simply find it impossible to believe this is all news to you.