Why do I have more games as black

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HowFaresTheKing

I noticed that I have played the black pieces 33 more times than I have played white.

Why doesn't it even out over time? Instead, the imbalance seems to keep slowly growing. 

SoupTime4

SoupTime4

Martin_Stahl
HowFaresTheKing wrote:

I noticed that I have played the black pieces 33 more times than I have played white.

Why doesn't it even out over time? Instead, the imbalance seems to keep slowly growing. 

 

 

 

 

 

It tries to balance and based on the number of games you have played, that imbalance isn't too bad.

Confused-psyduck

That is still better than 33 times more

kierancurtis

Maybe the other player has requested that you play black? 

eric0022

If you have for example 500 games as White and 530 games as Black then it's still normal.

 

If you have 500 games as White and 1500 games as Black, then it's unusual.

eric0022
Martin_Stahl wrote:
HowFaresTheKing wrote:

I noticed that I have played the black pieces 33 more times than I have played white.

Why doesn't it even out over time? Instead, the imbalance seems to keep slowly growing. 

 

 

 

 

 

It tries to balance and based on the number of games you have played, that imbalance isn't too bad.

 

Surprisingly I have not heard of many people who complain about receiving the game as White more often than as Black.

SoupTime4

2 things that apparently never happen:

1.  "I got disconnected in a losing position."

2.  "Why do i get the white pieces more than black?"

corum

It has evened out. You wouldn't expect there to be exactly 2298 games as white (when I looked you had 4598 games with 2282 as white and 2314 as black). You have 32 games more as black than white. In other words you have played 16 less games as white than you might have expected.

If you had only played a hundred or so games this might be significant. Imagine you only played four games and 3 were black and 1 was white. Even though you had played three times as many games as black and you had 50% more games as black than you might expect (2) you would accept this as being fair randomness (I hope). 

As you play more and more games the per cent variance from a perfect 50/50 split should fall; however, the absolute difference will likely increase. So, if we take the example of four games and 3 as black, this is 75% as black and 25% as white. For your case with 2298 you have 49.7% as white and 50.3% as black. So it has evened out. A difference of 32 games sounds big but in the context of a total of 2298 games it is tiny and completely to be expected. 

Anyway, I just ran the simulations. For a total of 2298 games the probably that you could have between 2283 and 2313 as white is ..... 87%. Unless this is 95% or more we would not conclude that the system was unfair just because you have 2282 as white. It's just random statistics.

llama44
HowFaresTheKing wrote:

I noticed that I have played the black pieces 33 more times than I have played white.

Why doesn't it even out over time? Instead, the imbalance seems to keep slowly growing. 

 

 

 

 

Statistically speaking, that's actually normal. Once it's tilted in one way, especially after many instances, it becomes incredibly unlikely to ever go back to 50%.

It's like the gambler's fallacy. Even if you've had more blacks the chances of the next game being white are still 50/50. That's why it never self corrects. Even if the chances were perfectly 50/50 deviations like this happen.

People tend to have bad intuition about these things, for example Apple had to make their random shuffle less random because when people experienced true random it felt like there were patterns heh. So by making it less random, people experienced it as more random.

llama44
Martin_Stahl wrote:
HowFaresTheKing wrote:

I noticed that I have played the black pieces 33 more times than I have played white.

Why doesn't it even out over time? Instead, the imbalance seems to keep slowly growing. 

 

 

 

 

 

It tries to balance and based on the number of games you have played, that imbalance isn't too bad.

If it tires to balance it out then that's kinda bad.

If it tries to keep it balanced to within a few percent then I guess it's fine.

But if it's truly a 50/50 chance then his stats are normal.

Martin_Stahl
llama44 wrote:
Martin_Stahl wrote:
HowFaresTheKing wrote:

I noticed that I have played the black pieces 33 more times than I have played white.

Why doesn't it even out over time? Instead, the imbalance seems to keep slowly growing. 

 

 

 

 

 

It tries to balance and based on the number of games you have played, that imbalance isn't too bad.

If it tires to balance it out then that's kinda bad.

If it tries to keep it balanced to within a few percent then I guess it's fine.

But if it's truly a 50/50 chance then his stats are normal.

 

The problem is, it has to try and balance everyone. So, being out of balance, he generally would be due white more often, but if he happens to be playing someone who is more unbalanced and due white, he'll get black.

JimUrban2718
My gut tells me there is no algorithm to try to keep the games balanced. That would seem like wasted processing resources when the Law of Large Numbers already ensures the percentage of games playing either side approaches 50%, assuming a truly random assignment for each game.
llama44

So you're saying he's meeting people who have over 30 whites and that's why he's not returning to 50/50? That doesn't make any sense.

If it only takes into account the last few games (even if that's 10 or 20), then that makes sense, because like I said after you become unbalanced (so to speak) it's very unlikely you'll be able to return to 50/50. That's just the math of a 50/50 chance.

JimUrban2718
llama44 is incorrect in his understanding of probability.
Martin_Stahl
llama44 wrote:

So you're saying he's meeting people who have over 30 whites and that's why he's not returning to 50/50? That doesn't make any sense.

If it only takes into account the last few games (even if that's 10 or 20), then that makes sense, because like I said after you become unbalanced (so to speak) it's very unlikely you'll be able to return to 50/50. That's just the math of a 50/50 chance.

 

I don't know the specific algorithm, but my understanding, based on reading a lot of posts in the past about it, is that the system tries to balance the color allocations. But it isn't about specific counts, but due color; if someone has a higher percentage of blacks than the OP, they would be be more due white, the way I understood the previous postings.

 

Rematches would not be part of that, other than the first game, and after it would alternate.

 

I could be wrong, they could have changed things and just do it completely randomly now.  I could also have misunderstood how it was explained by staff in previous postings.

llama44
JimUrban2718 wrote:
llama44 is incorrect in his understanding of probability.

Well, I said it so badly that I actually said it wrong

Just look at the law of large numbers graph on the wiki page. This is what I was trying to say... that once it becomes unbalanced, it tends to stay that way a long time. In other words you don't have more blacks, then whites, then blacks etc. If you've had more blacks, then it will stay that way (until after a very long time, you're right, it will go to 50/50).

llama44

With certain gambling rules, when you play such a game (where the amount you can bet is limited by how much you've lost or won) then even if enough time passes that you've won and lost an equal amount of times, you'll end up winning or losing money... and you can predict this early on by whether near the beginning you were ahead or behind.

Enpassant-24

because you are not a racist. grin.png