Why was everyone sleeping on Nepo pre-tournament?

I mean I don't follow chess too closely, but I remember before the Candidates many people kinda had Nepo outside of like Caurana, Ding, and even Firouzja. I thought that was outrageous because he is insanely good and he was literally the last challenger. I mean, I understand he got absolutely bludgeoned by Carlsen when they played for the World Championship, but fact is, he earned his right to challenge him.

Was his recent play before the Candidates not up to par? Did he show disinterest in challenging Magnus again? Or was it simply that people didnt want to see a Nepo v Magnus rematch? I might be wrong, but even the betting odds didn't really favor Nepo pre tourney.

Hi.. not me I always had Nepo as one of the favorites

Firouzja and Ding were and the only two rated 2800+.
Carlsen himself hinted at Firouzja as a challenger.
Nepo got lots of criticism for the way he lost against Carlsen.

I picked Caruana to win before the tournament started. I think I picked Nepo to finish 3rd.

Why do you ****ing think?

His performance in the WCC was the WORST of anyone... ever.

All though history no one was as bad a challenger as him... and it was all because of psychology. So everyone knows he has an extremely large weakness... he doesn't recover from adversity, and his WCC-related performance was historically bad... so who knows, he might have lost every game. He might still lose all the remaining games (lol).

Hey, why the downvote?

He might win all the remaining games too. I'm not hoping he loses or anything, it's just a fact he's a ticking time bomb. He could collapse at any moment. Not a smart guy to bet on pre-tournament.

Of course right now (1 round before the half) he's leading, so it makes a little more sense to bet on him.

No one was "sleeping" on Nepo going into the Candidates.  But Nepo has a history of not doing well in long events.  He is very talented (if I remember correctly, Carlsen stated he felt Nepo was the most talented player of his generation), but often gets impulsive and impatient leading to very streaky tendencies.  He greatly benefited from the fact that the last candidates tournament was split halfway through as he was on a downward trend going into the second half and with over a year separating, it was like a whole new event going into the second half (conversely, MVL was the one who benefited the least from the split as his opponents now had a whole year to prepare for him when they had not spent any time doing so before the first half).

So, with regards to why the odds-makers did not have Nepo as high as Caruana in probability of winning is simple:  they know his tendency to decline in long events whereas Caruana is pretty consistent throughout.  This will be Fabi's 4th Candidates Tournament, and he has placed 2nd, 1st, and 4th (1 point behind the winner) in the previous 3.  His consistency is what gives him a high probability of winning.

Regarding Firoujza, his probability was a little over-hyped due to his recent performances.  Magnus believes he will be a challenger very soon, but I think it was a bit too early to say he is there simply because he lacks the games against the other 2800s in the field (i.e. his first classical game against Hikaru was the other day).  That is a huge psychological barrier to overcome at 19 years old.

In the first 6 rounds, Nepo has escaped with draws in 2 games that he probably should have lost.  It will be surprising if that trend continues in the last 8 rounds as 2700+ players do not often miss opportunities to put opponents away.

Yeah, and Firozja's loss yesterday was embarrassingly bad... IMO, for whatever that's worth (which is probably nothing since he's been over 2800 and I'm nobody).

But seriously, Caruana made him look like a beginner.

Nepo's excuse was he cracks under pressure, Firo's errors looked different... they looked like an inexperienced kid playing bad chess... he was spending a lot of time in a quiet positions, he failed to organize his pieces, his position was just awkward and bad the whole time then he lost.

It was because the magic topic in the room.

Oh yeah, he plays for a neutral country...the magic land of Middle Earth.

Anymore and I'll get censored.

But when you say "Nepo" to Carlsen, he wants to avoid him like super quick.

As long as you dont say his friends name....certainly auto ban.

It gets tricky.

I disagree with Nepo's assertion there.  It isn't that he cracks under pressure, but that he gets impatient (I see it because it is the same problem I have - albeit I am at a MUCH lower level).  I also think his stamina is starting to wear on him as he gets older (he is not spending the time he needs to on his physical fitness, which is going to hurt him in long events).

Firoujza got a lesson from Fabi in what it means to be prepared at this level.  He largely got to 2800 by beating up on 2600s, where his creativity allowed him to get away with some things.  He is learning what Judit Polgar described as she approached that level:  "It isn't level ... it is levels!"  There is a reason guys like Fabi, MVL, Magnus, Hikaru, etc. can give multiboard simuls against 2600-level GMs and barely lose a single game.  Firoujza is learning what it takes to compete at that level.  I suspect he will come back stronger for it, but I did not think his chances to win this tournament were as high as some odds-makers were giving him.  In fact, if I were a betting man, I would have placed a wager that he would underperform the odds-makers predictions.

I don't know about Nepo, but I agree with you on Firo.

Obviously he has serious world champion potential, but at the moment he's still inexperienced.

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