Will computers ever solve chess?

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troy7915
Miaoiao wrote:

Thanks for admitting :)

 

  It’s a fact, I don’t have to either reject it or embrace it. But again, only in that context.

ponz111
troy7915 wrote:  ponz in red
ponz111 wrote:

Troy

People give opinions on things every day. People state certain things are facts everyday. They do not have to believe 100% that something is a fact to call a fact a fact.

By your reasoning--nothing is a fact. If you wish to live that way and  reason that way--this is fine. But for me, i live in the real world. [and that is a fact]  

 

  The point is that I have no problems with going with your instincts or opinions, or whatever name you have for them. But they are not facts. Sure it is a fact that chess is a draw even if you do not know this yourself. Back in the day many strong checker players were saying checkers is a draw and that is a fact. They were later proven correct. So, even though checkers was not solved--they were correct.  Chess does not have to be solved for something about chess to be correct. 

 

Which means you don’t know. I don’t know why it’s so frightening to admit one doesn’t know. I have always admitted that i do not know 100% that chess is a draw.

  Again, facts do exist, don’t generalize that all we have is opinions. There are facts and it is possible to live a life—if not play a chess game!—without giving out opinions. Like in the perennial question:  There are zillions of facts--most people do not know all the facts.. 

 

   ‘ Did you hear about that Earthquake last night, or about that shooting the other day? What do you think about it?’

 

  And it is possible for a human being to answer: ‘ It doesn’t matter what I think about it. The fact is that it happened. Actually you could not say it is a fact just because  you or someone else heard something. You could not say it was 100% a fact. 

What I think is irrelevant. this is correct!

 

To condemn it or to condine what is "condine"?

 

 it is to move away from the fact into a non-related fact. What "fact" do you refer to? So far you have not given a fact.

 

Why not instead try to understand that fact by moving slowly, from fact to fact, in a scientific manner, you have not even established one "fact" so how can you go from "fact to fact"??

instead of from opinion to opinion, moving further and further away from the fact we try to examine.  You have given no fact at all. just something someone heard... 

 

  It is possible to have a mind that is neutral, lacking a personal agenda and free of personal opinions. Otherwise, life is miserable. there is no mind that is completely neutral. You sure do not have one as you have repeatedly failed to look at all my evidence.  If your mind was "completely neutral" it would probably be brain dead.

troy7915

 That is another assumption. There will always be the protection of the physical body. But most of us have the hidden agenda of protecting their ‘mental bodies’, which at the center of it lies the self-image. Most people protect that self-image. I call a ‘neutral mind’, one that has no such image to protect.

 

  You are not reading carefully. The facts given at random were an earthquake and a shooting. Your ‘opinionated’ mind missed those given facts completely.

 

 At the speed your mind is moving, with the hidden agenda to prove your hypothesis, you are committing contradictions.

 

 Hence you first say : sure it is a fact that chess is a draw even if you don’t know this yourself.

And a bit later you also say: I have always admitted that I do not know 100% that chess is a draw.

 

 And again, if a guess turns out to be a fact, it is still a guess at the moment it was advanced, once you say you do not know as a fact that chess is a draw. At this moment in time you don’t know. You are only guessing and the strength of that guess is irrelevant: it’s still a guess. You still don’t know for sure, there is still a possibility that your guess does not become a fact.  Therefore at this particular moment it is a non-fact. As long as there is one possibility that chess is not a draw. That is statistically, not judging by the strength of your belief, which is irrelevant here.

 

Here’s where you're getting confused: believing in something 99.99% is not the same as knowing it, which is always 100% and has nothing to do with your strong or weak beliefs. Your beliefs—strong or weak—are not facts. You are mixing them up.

 

When all the variants are taken into consideration, your beliefs are irrelevant. The facts will speak for themselves. Until then, no one has those facts.

 

 PS: the word in question was ‘condone’. Both condoning and condemning a fact are meaningless.

lfPatriotGames
ponz111 wrote:
lfPatriotGames wrote:  ponz in blue
ponz111 wrote:
troy7915 wrote:

That parallel is only a weak inference.

Yes, it is a somewhat weak inference. However there is a lot of other evidence which indicates chess is a draw when neither side makes an error. When one has a ton of evidence--he can rightly give his opinion that chess is a draw.

That still doesn't make any sense to me. You are still assuming you know what an error is, from the very first move of the game.  On the 51st move, when it's a mate in one, of course we all know what the best move is and what an error is. But on the first move, none of us know. So that ton of evidence is almost no evidence. You are taking one piece of my evidence and ignoring all the other evidence. You are also assuming i cannot discern moves from the opening position which do not lose. You are also assuming many strong GMs cannot discern moves from the opening position which do not lose. 

Like you I can say there is a ton of evidence that chess is always a win for white when neither side makes an error. I can say that because, like you, I can assume that what I believe about best play, and errors, is true.One differnce between you and i is that i give a lot of evidence and you have not given evidence that chess is a win.

The actual truth is neither of us know what whites best first move is, and what the best response is. You are making a big assumption here. You assume there is only ONE best first move. In fact there are many first moves which lead to the theoretical  result.

 

To say that chess is a draw when neither side makes an error, is an error. The correct answer is "I dont know". I have already said, several times that i do not know 100%. I am saying from a ton of evidence [most of which you completely ignore] it is my opinion that chess is a draw when neither side makes an error which would change the theoretical result of the game. I can reasonably say this as i have given much evidence to support my opinion. The fact that you ignore my evidence does not mean i have given no evidence.

I have seen your ton of evidence. I just think it's almost no evidence at all. Lets say someone just learned to play chess and has been playing for 2 weeks. They decide to analyze some of your games and they come to the conclusion, based on their two weeks knowledge, that your ability is horrible. You make all kinds of mistakes like castling, controlling the center, etc. How much credibility do you give this beginner who thinks they know how to judge your play?

That's the amount of credibility I give to grandmasters who think chess is a draw. Compared to the worlds best computers now, and compared to what I think computers will become, their opinion is that of a bumbling beginner. I agree chess could be a draw. But I also agree it could be a win for white or black. I just dont know, and I'm not even close to making any sort of educated guess because the rate of improvement for computers if far outpacing the rate of improvement for people. For me, what people think about the likely outcome means almost nothing. 

sheetspread3

When people say "solve" do they mean mate before move 1, or the absolutely quickest mate possible without further improvement, ever? If there are more ways to win a chess game than grains of sand on all the worlds' beaches, that's some pretty serious computing power.

Elroch

To be precise, more people think the game theoretic value of chess is a half, in which case solving chess means being able to force a draw both with white and with black. [This was achieved for checkers in 2007 after years of computation].

troy7915
Miaoiao wrote:

IfPatrioticgames, I wonder how you reached a relatively high Blitz rating when you cannot even understand Ponz extremely careful analyses.

 

  It’s not about a ‘deep anslysis’ of the game, but about simple logic and honesty.

troy7915
sheetspread3 wrote:

When people say "solve" do they mean mate before move 1, or the absolutely quickest mate possible without further improvement, ever? If there are more ways to win a chess game than grains of sand on all the worlds' beaches, that's some pretty serious computing power.

 

  No further improvements, yes.

Ziryab
troy7915 wrote:
Miaoiao wrote:

You are right. I should add, 'No AI knows'.  

 

  AI knows more than humans, which is why alpha can beat any of them. But even that machine is far, far away from knowing everything about chess.

 

Or, knowing anything at all, in fact. Alpha knows how the pieces move and has the resources to play with itself effectively.

pawn8888

I think that Alpha Zero has solved chess. No one can come up with a game where Alpha has lost while playing white. I don't think that chess is even all that complicated. To humans it is but not computers. Chess is only 8 x 8 squares what if it was 10 times as many squares or 1000 times. I think if Alpha could talk it would say it's a simple game, easy to win or draw playing white. Against a lesser opponent it can win playing black.

DiogenesDue

Except that being undefeated in Chess and solving Chess are 30+ orders of magnitude away from each other in terms of computational power required.  Anyone that cannot grasp this fact is just creating useless static in this thread...

sheetspread3
pawn8888 wrote:

I think that Alpha Zero has solved chess. No one can come up with a game where Alpha has lost while playing white. I don't think that chess is even all that complicated. To humans it is but not computers. Chess is only 8 x 8 squares what if it was 10 times as many squares or 1000 times. I think if Alpha could talk it would say it's a simple game, easy to win or draw playing white. Against a lesser opponent it can win playing black.

Alpha zero is as good as it gets? They said that about deep fritz, deep blue, chessmaster 2000 (remember the dos version with "take five" gloom music?)

troy7915
Ziryab wrote:
troy7915 wrote:
Miaoiao wrote:

You are right. I should add, 'No AI knows'.  

 

  AI knows more than humans, which is why alpha can beat any of them. But even that machine is far, far away from knowing everything about chess.

 

Or, knowing anything at all, in fact. Alpha knows how the pieces move and has the resources to play with itself effectively.

 

   That was in the beginning. In the meantime, it has memorized a lot, it doesn’t start from scratch anymore.

troy7915
Miaoiao wrote:
troy7915 hat geschrieben:
Miaoiao wrote:

IfPatrioticgames, I wonder how you reached a relatively high Blitz rating when you cannot even understand Ponz extremely careful analyses.

 

  It’s not about a ‘deep anslysis’ of the game, but about simple logic and honesty.

No logic, and negative honesty from your side, troy.

 

  There is no such thing as ‘negative honesty’. How people like to twist things: if they don’t like a fact, which they agree it’s honesty, they call it ‘negative’ because it doesn’t make them feel good. How crooked! A fact is neither ‘negative’, nor ‘positive’: it is what it is, but the condemning mind steps in and a position is taken before the fact has sunk in sufficiently.

 

  As for logic, show us where troy is wrong. Let us see, maybe he is wrong, who knows?

troy7915

Did you? You were saying the same thing I was, namely, that alpha zero did not solve chess.

Billkingplayschess

This is exciting and possibly sad.

If Alpha Zero has never been beat as white, I think there is a good chance chess is solved.

I know everyone will try to lecture me on the possible positions being more that the atoms in the known universe, but 99.999 of them have already been discarded in the first 10 moves. You can solve chess without playing all the possibilities. Every game AZ (Alpha Zero) plays reduces the possibilities and brings us that much closer to solving it. Granted once it's solved it will destroy the chess world, hence the sad part of it. I'm sure AZ is still light years from actual proof of solving chess, but the fact that it's undefeated is exciting.

 

 

OmegaToHell

Honestly it doesn't matter if computers solve chess. I doubt there is a way for us humans to be able to remember all the possible moves in order to force a win

Icecream4crow

it 'll be great when the computers solve chess, then we wont have to keep trying by wasting time playing the game.(satire)

Billkingplayschess
OmegaToHell wrote:

Honestly it doesn't matter if computers solve chess. I doubt there is a way for us humans to be able to remember all the possible moves in order to force a win

True, but imagine the humility we will feel!

 

ponz111
lfPatriotGames wrote:   ponz in red
ponz111 wrote:
lfPatriotGames wrote:  ponz in blue
ponz111 wrote:
troy7915 wrote:

That parallel is only a weak inference.

Yes, it is a somewhat weak inference. However there is a lot of other evidence which indicates chess is a draw when neither side makes an error. When one has a ton of evidence--he can rightly give his opinion that chess is a draw.

That still doesn't make any sense to me. You are still assuming you know what an error is, from the very first move of the game.  On the 51st move, when it's a mate in one, of course we all know what the best move is and what an error is. But on the first move, none of us know. So that ton of evidence is almost no evidence. You are taking one piece of my evidence and ignoring all the other evidence. You are also assuming i cannot discern moves from the opening position which do not lose. You are also assuming many strong GMs cannot discern moves from the opening position which do not lose. 

Like you I can say there is a ton of evidence that chess is always a win for white when neither side makes an error. I can say that because, like you, I can assume that what I believe about best play, and errors, is true.One differnce between you and i is that i give a lot of evidence and you have not given evidence that chess is a win.

The actual truth is neither of us know what whites best first move is, and what the best response is. You are making a big assumption here. You assume there is only ONE best first move. In fact there are many first moves which lead to the theoretical  result.

 

To say that chess is a draw when neither side makes an error, is an error. The correct answer is "I dont know". I have already said, several times that i do not know 100%. I am saying from a ton of evidence [most of which you completely ignore] it is my opinion that chess is a draw when neither side makes an error which would change the theoretical result of the game. I can reasonably say this as i have given much evidence to support my opinion. The fact that you ignore my evidence does not mean i have given no evidence.

I have seen your ton of evidence. I just think it's almost no evidence at all. ok, to test your statement please give 10 of my pieces of evidence.

Lets say someone just learned to play chess and has been playing for 2 weeks. They decide to analyze some of your games and they come to the conclusion, based on their two weeks knowledge, that your ability is horrible. You make all kinds of mistakes like castling, controlling the center, etc. How much credibility do you give this beginner who thinks they know how to judge your play?  This is a terrible anology

That's the amount of credibility I give to grandmasters who think chess is a draw. You do not seem to have any inkling on how grandmasters think. The main difference between the best grandmasters and the best chess engines is speed of calculation. Of course the chess engines have a great advantage in this. This is certainly an unfair advantage. If the best grandmasters were give a lot more time [say a week for one move] they would be a lot more comparable to the best chess engines.

And in the present situation there is a great comparison [nothing at all like your very poor analogy]. The best grandmasters on probably most moves in a long chess game would make just as good moves as the chess engines.

Compared to the worlds best computers now, and compared to what I think computers will become, their opinion is that of a bumbling beginner. again this is because you do not understand how grandmasters think and  you are not taking into consideration the build in advantages of chess engines [speed of calculation] which in a real game could be taken away by giving the grandmasters more time.

 

I agree chess could be a draw. But I also agree it could be a win for white or black. "could be"?? ok give us a rough estimate of the chance  you think chess could be a win for white or black!!

 

I just dont know, and I'm not even close to making any sort of educated guess because the rate of improvement for computers if far outpacing the rate of improvement for people.

 

For me, what people think about the likely outcome means almost nothing. This is mainly because you know a lot less about chess than todays current grandmasters. It is well known that the higher the chess rating the more likely someone will believe chess is a draw. This is also because you discard all the evidence which points to chess being a draw.