Will computers ever solve chess?

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Avatar of vickalan
rychessmaster1 wrote:
Your posting on this forum more than your paying attention to bulldog chess😭

Sorry, playing bulldog moves now.😄

Avatar of DiogenesDue
cobra91 wrote:
btickler wrote:

Steady and arguably declining draw rates in TCEC imply the opposite, though.

To say "arguably declining" is just a horrible misrepresentation of the facts. Up until TCEC Season 9 in 2016, draw rates in the Superfinal had been steadily increasing (just as they are in World Correspondence Chess Championships), with the most recent sets of openings (that is, for seasons 7 and 8) selected by IM Erik Kislik. Then, for the Season 9 Superfinal, the selection of openings was done by Jeroen Noomen for the first time, resulting in an entirely new range of much sharper starting positions that were clearly handpicked with obvious intent. Coincidentally, the draw rate in the Season 9 Superfinal was much lower than in Season 8, and Noomen has continued to select the Superfinal openings for Seasons 10 and 11 (draw rates were slightly higher than in Season 9).

This is without even mentioning the fact that draw rates in engine matches are heavily influenced by variables such as contempt, dynamism, etc, and thus are not nearly as reliable as WCCC draw rates.

btickler wrote: 

 The new breed of engines that are bootstrapping their own play vs. being setup with a dataset of human-derived valuations are going to be that much better.

This remains to be seen, especially if such predictions are solely based on the results of the closed-door match between AlphaZero and Stockfish. It is by now quite widely known that the conditions of the match favored AlphaZero to such an extent as to reduce the event to little more than a publicity stunt. Here is a quote from Tord Romstad which accurately summarizes many of the advantages enjoyed by AlphaZero throughout those famous 100 games:

"The match results by themselves are not particularly meaningful because of the rather strange choice of time controls and Stockfish parameter settings: The games were played at a fixed time of 1 minute/move, which means that Stockfish has no use of its time management heuristics (lot of effort has been put into making Stockfish identify critical points in the game and decide when to spend some extra time on a move; at a fixed time per move, the strength will suffer significantly). The version of Stockfish used is one year old, was playing with far more search threads than has ever received any significant amount of testing, and had way too small hash tables for the number of threads."

btickler wrote:

I would argue that any self-driven car that follows just the basic parameters, has the same restrictor plates, tires, etc. would create that same letdown effect.  The key would simply be watching a self-driven car driving effortlessly through a 10-car crash sequence, draft the leader perfectly on the final lap and slingshot to an easy win, etc.

That would probably be true from the perspective of casual fans, but complaints from experts and/or professionals in the sport would be inevitable. And for good reason -- if, for instance, the cars in such races could be operated (by their human drivers) via some form of remote control, a lot more people would be able to compete in the "sport" (could hardly be considered a sport in that case, obviously) at a very high level. The ability to both ride and operate those vehicles while moving at such high speed within a complex environment is what separates pros from amateurs when it comes to driving. A self-driving car merely emulates a human-driven car; it does not truly replicate, much less surpass, the remarkable skill of human drivers.

In any case, my point was that such an achievement would not demonstrate indisputable superiority of AI within the domain of racecar driving, as you had suggested.

Ermm, yes, I know all about the manipulation of the A0/Stockfish match and was one of the earliest and most vociferous decriers of Google's shenanigans here in these very forums wink.png...that being said , the bootstrap method is going to work.  I predicted years before A0 that engines would see a big jump in ratings when they stopped using human valuations and relied only on engine play sans opening books and eliminating all human influence on what constitutes "best play" entirely.

Point made on TCEC, though increasing draw rates could definitely turn out to be a "false positive" type of test, since it only takes one narrow set of lines to force a win (or one, but I would highly doubt it could turn out to be just a single line in the entire tree).

On the Indy 500, I was just drawing an analogy about humanity's level of conceit in mankind's abilities, so...I have at no time argued some inevitable indisputable superiority of AI in racing.  When I said "wait until a self-driving car wins the Indy 500" I was referring to the reaction it will cause if and when it happens, not that I think it's imminent.  I could have made the same analogy using Paul Bunyan wink.png...but, quite frankly, most people reading here are seemingly not that well read, so car racing seems more accessible.

Avatar of DiogenesDue
s23bog wrote:

That was my way of saying that it seemed like taking the long way.

...and that was my way of telling you that it wasn't/isn't the "long way".  For reasons explaining ad nauseam over the last 395 pages...

Avatar of DiogenesDue
s23bog wrote:

Oh ... there are longer ways, but it surely wasn't the most direct route.

Ok, you can just keep pretending your original statement was right in some way, but...it wasn't.  

Avatar of maathheus

Assuming an avarage of 4 reasonable moves for each position, after 16 moves we reach 18*10^18 different positions. It would require more than a tausend Terabytes just to store the FEN of all those positions

Avatar of madratter7
maathheus wrote:

Assuming an avarage of 4 reasonable moves for each position, after 16 moves we reach 18*10^18 different positions. It would require more than a tausend Terabytes just to store the FEN of all those positions

 

There are actually far far fewer positions than this. The reason is that some lines end up with identical positions. d4 nf6 c4 is identical to c4 nf6 d4. This along with other heuristics and such is why computers can look so deep.

 

In principal, you could look at all the possible checkmate positions that are actually attainable in a real game (no white pawns on the first rank. no line of 7 pawns of a color on a file, no two queens of the same color while you still have 8 pawns of that color, etc.). Then you could look at reasonable moves by each side that can get that position, etc. By doing this, you would eliminate a huge amount of the tree that needs searching to solve chess. This is basically what they do with endgame tablebases.

 

Unfortunately for that approach, the number of such final positions in chess is indeed huge.

 

But wait, you don't actually have to do this for ALL checkmate positions. You just have to do it for 1. And if you can show that best play by both sides results in that position, then it is a forced win for the side that checkmates. Now all you have to do is get lucky and select that correct final position!

 

I'm not holding my breath. It is still an incredibly huge undertaking, even with that simplification.

 

Avatar of DiogenesDue
s23bog wrote:

The number of possible positions after any particular position doesn't equate in terms of possible roads to get there.  You can't just multiply the number of possible moves by the possible moves by the possible moves.

 

The number of possible positions from the initial position after 6 or 7 tempi has been calculated.  But I don't think the number has actually been calculated much beyond that.

Why do you just make stuff up in your head?

20
400
8,902
197,281
4,865,609
119,060,324
3,195,901,860
84,998,978,956
2,439,530,234,167
69,352,859,712,417
2,097,651,003,696,806
62,854,969,236,701,747
1,981,066,775,000,396,239
61,885,021,521,585,529,237
2,015,099,950,053,364,471,960

That's 15 moves out.  Google is your friend.

Avatar of cobra91
btickler wrote:

Ermm, yes, I know all about the manipulation of the A0/Stockfish match and was one of the earliest and most vociferous decriers of Google's shenanigans here in these very forums ...that being said , the bootstrap method is going to work.  I predicted years before A0 that engines would see a big jump in ratings when they stopped using human valuations and relied only on engine play sans opening books and eliminating all human influence on what constitutes "best play" entirely.

So you admit that clear evidence is lacking, but then still state with confidence that engines trained through self-play will soon transcend those of the conventional type... all while ignoring the following:

  • Potential for diminishing returns as engines start to encroach upon either a theoretical or practical limit to the standard of play that can be produced by essentially heuristic methods.
  • The possibility that, after more than a century of fine-tuning (and then ~2 decades of further refinements in the computer era), human valuations just might be a little less flawed than you seem to think. Of course, any form of static evaluation is inherently limited in how close it can get to true perfection, but apparently you just assume (without evidence) that decades of dedicated, intensive, and often collaborative study and research efforts by the best chess minds the world has ever had to offer has produced nothing but... useless trash, to be disposed of as quickly as possible.
  • The fact that self-training methods must necessarily involve only a feasible number of games, which means that the number of positions examined during this process will fall short of the total state space complexity by about 30 orders of magnitude. So clearly, there is a ceiling for this approach that can only be raised by significant hardware developments. To illustrate, here is a diagram from https://arxiv.org/pdf/1712.01815.pdf:null
  • The subjectivity involved in deciding on what data should be collected during self-play, and how that data should be used. There are many choices to be made when designing the framework for a ML-based system, and the effect they have on the results can be quite dramatic. 
btickler wrote: 

Point made on TCEC, though increasing draw rates could definitely turn out to be a "false positive" type of test, since it only takes one narrow set of lines to force a win (or one, but I would highly doubt it could turn out to be just a single line in the entire tree).

A forced win for White (or Black, for that matter) would not involve just a single line, or even just one narrow set of lines. It would require every single defense for one side to be refuted, which would mean that the best assessments that humanity can currently muster are wrong -- and not just wrong in one opening variation, but in dozens upon dozens of opening variations. Modern theory would have to be wrong about every single line ever analyzed, in fact, at least within the confines of what Black (or White) can opt for against the hypothetically winning moves (which would necessarily have to include several broad categories of openings, at the very least).

A forced win for one side would also imply that existing theory has been regressing for quite some time now, at least in the "big picture" sense. Most of the significant breakthroughs in the computer era have been of the equalizing variety. In many lines where White was believed to have an advantage, defensive resources and/or counterplay opportunities are being found. Meanwhile, only the most dubious sidelines are even considered refuted, at the moment. As any serious correspondence player would tell you if asked, the paths to even a practical glimmer of an advantage appear to be getting slowly but surely closed off: https://www.iccf.com/event?id=52852

 

Avatar of ponz111

As cobra91 points out the 29th Correspondence World Championship Finals Cross Table is clear evidence that chess is a draw with perfect play.

Only those who do not understand chess and/or are just plain stubborn would have their heads so far stuck in the sand to not see this evidence. [and it is very good evidence]

Avatar of ponz111
s23bog wrote:

What would be the purpose of me, or anyone else, viewing said evidence?

as one of my favorite songs goes: "Won't you listen to reason?

Will you open your eyes?

It's a wonder what you'll find, with an open mind,

Yeah--ooh !

[however I will not hold my breath waiting!Laughing]

Avatar of ponz111
s23bog wrote:

What happens to the balance of a chess game if even the tiniest of errors is made at any point in the game?  Even just one 2nd best move.

Depends on how you define "error"  A 2nd best move usually will only affect practical chances. But then this depends on how you define

"2nd best move"?

Often 2nd best move or 3rd best move or 4th best move or 5th best move will keep the game in the range it already is [winning, losing, or drawing].

The question is quite ambiguous.

Avatar of ponz111
s23bog wrote:

Have you found a nice group of old men who agree with your stubborn opinion, or have you agreed with the opinions of a bunch of stubborn old men?

Here you are making a fundamental error. There are more than 2 possibilities.

Avatar of Preggo_Basashi

Arguing day and night about if chess will be solved
Mathematicians tout propositions saying never at all
Those hopeful hold faith in the possible
While others get confused and shout that "chess is a draw!"

Avatar of ponz111
s23bog wrote:

I am sure there are  Those are the two I want you to consider at this particular moment.  Are there possiblities that you want me to consider?  Do they pertain to you and your life, me and my life, or anyone else's life in particular?  How aboout just pertaining to life in general?  Got any wise words for that?

The two you mentioned are very far from the truth.

I would suggest you do not make up things that are so far from reality.

Of course, when I say chess is a draw--this pertains to what I have learned about chess. 

Avatar of ponz111
Preggo_Basashi wrote:

Arguing day and night about if chess will be solved
Mathematicians tout propositions saying never at all
Those hopeful hold faith in the possible
While others get confused and shout that "chess is a draw!"

"Will chess be solved?" and "Is chess a draw?" are two different questions.

 As in many forums things come up which are slightly related but different.

I would answer "no" to the first question and "yes" to the second question.

There is also the question "Has a perfect game ever been played?"

Avatar of Preggo_Basashi
ponz111 wrote:
 

There is also the question "Has a perfect game ever been played?"

 As you're no doubt aware, it depends on the definition of "perfect." Under some definitions, I will agree with you that perfect games have been played already.

Avatar of Preggo_Basashi

And every reasonable person already understands that:

 

1) Chess will never be solved

2) chess is a draw

 

Crap I'm too drunk to have said this in one post.  This seriously took me like.... 5 minutes to type holy crap.

 

 

Avatar of ponz111

Yes, I am aware of this. My definition of perfect game is a game where neither side has made an error which should change the theoretical result of that game.

 Per that definition I believe many perfect games have been played...

Avatar of Preggo_Basashi
ponz111 wrote:

Yes, I am aware of this. My definition of perfect game is a game where neither side has made an error which should change the theoretical result of that game.

 Per that definition I believe many perfect games have been played...

Everyone should already agree with this.

 

Wow, I will stop posting now. Incredibly drunk right now.

Avatar of Preggo_Basashi

Drank 1/2 cup of everclear after not eating all day. Just now hitting. Damn.

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