Will Magnus Carlsen be the first player ever to break the 3000 barrier?

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DiogenesDue
MagnusCarlson202020212022 wrote:
Possibly. Hikaru May beat him

Lol. No. Hikaru is no danger of ever reaching Carlsen's peak rating in classical.

For Carlsen, he will not reach 2900, much less 3000. People don't understand how the ratings pools work. It matters how good Carlsen is, of course, but his rating cannot increase unless his peers also increase. As long as only a handful of players are over 2800, Carlsen cannot reach 2900. He would have to play only them, and he would have to have a win rate that would be infeasible. There are actually no 2800+ players now other than Carlsen. In 2015 or so there were 5-10 players that were over 2800.

Think of the ratings pool like an expanding balloon. High rated players are on the "edge" of the balloon. But you cannot leave the balloon. You can only go as far the very edge of the balloon allows. In order for anyone to ever have a 3000 rating, the whole balloon either has to expand, or the balloon has to attenuate...i.e. if enough players climb into, say, the mid-2850s range to create "scaffolding" for a stronger player, then breaking 2900 becomes possible for someone like Carlsen in relation to his peers.

darkunorthodox88
DiogenesDue wrote:
MagnusCarlson202020212022 wrote:
Possibly. Hikaru May beat him

Lol. No. Hikaru is no danger of ever reaching Carlsen's peak rating in classical.

For Carlsen, he will not reach 2900, much less 3000. People don't understand how the ratings pools work. It matters how good Carlsen is, of course, but his rating cannot increase unless his peers also increase. As long as only a handful of players are over 2800, Carlsen cannot reach 2900. He would have to play only them, and he would have to have a win rate that would be infeasible. And there are actually less 2800+ players now than several years ago.

Think of the ratings pool like an expanding balloon. High rated players are on the "edge" of the balloon. But you cannot leave the balloon. You can only go as far the very edge of the balloon allows. In order for anyone to ever have a 3000 rating, the whole balloon either has to expand, or the balloon has to attenuate...i.e. if enough players climb into, say, the mid-2850s range to create "scaffolding" for a stronger player, then breaking 2900 becomes possible for someone like Carlsen in relation to his peers.

the bigger issue is, that he isnt THAT good in relation to his peers. He will draw agaisnt his peers esp as black enough times to stop any slow grind in its tracks.

but he has been like what? 2870?  never say never. But 3000 is absurd

bodygheith

yes

NatetheAuthor07
Definitely. He’s a g.
SmyslovFan

Chessbase had an article a little while ago demonstrating there is serious rating deflation going on. We can see this at the top where Magnus is the only player over 2800 and most players over the age of 21 are losing rating points to youngsters who didn’t get to play during the Pandemic.

Carlsen is more than 60 Elo ahead of second place right now he is so far above the rest it’s almost impossible. In the current system, it’s a miracle he’s over 2800 let alone 2850. He’s given up on 2900 for now, but he will be number one for at least another year.

magipi
SmyslovFan wrote:

but he will be number one for at least another year.

More precisely, he will be number one for 7 months, then he will disappear from the rating list in January due to inactivity. Unless he somehow resumes playing chess tournaments until then.

SmyslovFan

Magnus plans to play in 3-4 classical events a year.

creator_allen

I remember Bobby Fischer once said: "No human player can reach 3000, 3000 is the sign of being 100% accuracy"

FavelaSwag

Maybe in poker

MaxThomas9312

Its really cool to look at the answers 11 years after they were written and how they progressed. I guess the answer is obvious to us now but it really was fun reading through these.

piedraven

He seems to be fatigued from playing too many events back to back but he'll probably rest up and be in good form again and might possibly pull this off

magipi
piedraven wrote:

He seems to be fatigued from playing too many events back to back but he'll probably rest up and be in good form again and might possibly pull this off

"Impossible" is not a strong enough word.

This topic was opened in 2012 (11 years ago!) when Magnus was still young and improving. Plus he was close to 2900, a lot closer than today, so 2900 seemed like a given, thus they speculated about 3000. As things stand today, even 2900 is impossible for Magnus, let alone 3000.