Dawitt_the_great wrote:
A 30 year old who struggles with 3rd grade math. Brilliant
First off, I'm in my 40s, not 30, and secondly, I think it's the casinos that struggle with math until someone can prove otherwise about what I said above.
Any Math Geniuses Out There To Tell Me What I'm Doing Wrong?
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Perhaps too late now, but the following sites will tell you everything you need to know about calculating the odds on all the craps bets...the calculations assume knowledge of basic probability theory and calculations...
http://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/
https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/appendix/1/
http://www.ltcconline.net/greenl/courses/Gambling/Craps.htm
My advice - play only "Pass" or "Don't Pass", "Come" or "Don't Come" bets, both with free odds bets. ALL other bets, including "Place" bets, more heavily favor the house. Make the minimum bet on your "flat" bets (e,g., Pass line and Come bets), while maximizing your additional "free odds" bets on those flat bets (3X,. 4X, 5X etc.) - as doing so maximizes your return per $$ bet because the free odds bets are paid at true odds, whereas flat bets are paid out at less than true odds. And don't ever ask a dealer which bets you should play - after all, they are working for the house!
The following is the best book on craps - period. No gimmicks, no "secrets" revealed - just good, solid instruction on how to play correctly, by understanding which bets to play (the ones I recommend above) and which to avoid (ALL others), in order to minimize the house advantage and maximize your win rate. This book is a classic for good reason.
"Winning Casino Craps", 3rd Ed., by Edwin Silberstang
https://www.amazon.com/Winning-Casino-Craps-Edwin-Silberstang/dp/1580423213/ref=sr_1_4?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1471460282&sr=1-4&keywords=winning+craps
So I am about to go to the National Open next week which is in Las Vegas. Las Vegas is obviously known for something else. Gambling!
I need a math whiz to figure out what I'm doing wrong here.
So all the books say that in Craps, the Place Bets on 6 and 8 are a 1.52% house favorite, 5 and 9 are a 4% house favorite, and 4 and 10 are a 6.67% house favorite. I don't get these numbers at all, and my math below for 6, 5, and 4 show otherwise (8, 9, and 10 are exactly the same as 6, 5, and 4, respectively).
For the purpose of this exercise, we are going to assume the table is a $5 table, and that you are betting nothing but the one individual place bet at a time (someone else has the dice).
Let's start with the 6: Placing the 6 is a $6 bet, and pays 7 to 6 if you win. Let's say you bet the 6 for 36 rolls. Laws of probability say every permutation should come up once, meaning 43 is different than 34 (pretend one die is red, the other blue).
In 36 rolls, you should roll a 6 five times. Each of those 5 times, you get $13 back. The $6 you originally bet, and the $7 you won.
In 36 rolls, you should roll a 7 six times. No money comes back to you for those 6 rolls.
In 36 rolls, you should roll something other than a 6 or 7 twenty-five times. Each of those, you merely get your $6 back.
So 36 rolls at $6 per roll is $216 gambled
$13x5 (for the 6's rolled) + $6x25 (for the non-6/non-7 rolls) = $65 + $150 = $215 received
So for every $216 gambled, you lose $1. $1/$216 = 0.0046, or 0.46% (a lot less than 1.52%)
If you do the same theory for the 5, that's $5 per bet for 36 bets, $180.
You get 4 fives for $12 each (The $5 you bet plus the $7 won)
You get 26 rolls of non-5/non-7, each getting you your $5 back.
The other 6 rolls you lose with a 7 and receive nothing
$5x26 + $12*4 = $130 + $48 = $178. That's a $2 loss. $2/$180 = 0.0111, or 1.11% (a lot less than 4%)
If you do the same theory for the 4, that's $5 per bet for 36 bets, $180
You get 3 fours for $14 each (the $5 you bet plus the $9 won)
You get 27 rolls of non-4/non-7, each getting you your $5 back
The other 6 rolls you lose with a 7 and receive nothing
$5x27 + $14x3 = $135 + $42 = $177. That's a $3 loss. $3/$180 = 0.0167, or 1.67% (a lot less than 6.67%)
What is wrong with my math?