Does True Randomness Actually Exist? ( ^&*#^%$&#% )

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Elroch
Optimissed wrote:

It hasn't had a singularity for nearly 50 years.>>

Are you saying that you're nearly 50 years old?

What I said wasn't about me. It was about the fact that the standard model of cosmology had inflation added in the 1970s. While people refer to this being very early in the Big Bang, there is no bound on how long inflation lasted, nor any knowledge of anything that might have preceded it (information is effectively eradicated by inflation).

It's all downhill now, you know. At 45 I could still play football for three hours. Now, 23 years later, I can barely crawl out of bed.

S
on also got an MMath (1st) from Newcastle, and the physics bit was at St Andrews.  He once told me that he thinks physics PhDs are easy and hard, or "soft" and "useful". He thinks that a relatively average person can get a physics PhD if they're lucky with their assignment.

LOL. The average person can't pass A-level physics, so your son is very generous.

He also thinks that the less able tend to be drawn to cosmology for the reason that it's much harder to get real evidence which will prove them wrong. So actually I got the impression he doesn't have too much respect for cosmologists.

My experience tells me that people are driven to what attracts them most and the appeal of the branch of science that deals with the history of everything we can observe is clear. It is the biggest subject of all ("subject" in the sense of that which is studied).

 

MustangMate

There are two sources of apparent randomness. First is the probabilistic nature of quantum mechanics, with fundamentally non-deterministic randomness. For example, radioactive decay is a random process, even though the expected half-life emerges from many such events. Though Einstein protested, it appears that God does play dice. (Maybe someday a successful Planck-scale string theory will reveal some hidden deterministic mechanism underlying quantum randomness? Don't hold your breath -- you'd need an accelerator bigger than the solar system!)

Then there are non-linear dynamic systems with chaotic behavior, which are deterministic but nonetheless completely unpredictable. You can't really call them random because of their deterministic nature, being completely governed by known equations, but since every real-world input is known only to a limited precision, and since these systems display "sensitive dependence on initial conditions" (butterfly effect), they are effectively unpredictable, much the same as pseudo-random computer algorithms that produce numbers with statistical properties of randomness even though completely deterministic.

For example, a rock tumbling down a cliff is always governed by Newton's law, but because the detailed geometry of all the contact points cannot be precisely known, its path is rendered unpredictable as if random. Some water faucets drip at time-varying rates that are also unpredictable, even though governed by known equations. Essentially it's why we can't exactly solve a three-body problem in gravitation.

At human scale, chaotic physical systems seem to be everywhere -- most real-world objects have interacting parts that introduce non-linearity that usually gives rise to chaotic behavior in the mathematical sense. (The book to read is "Chaos" by Gleick.) = copied

MustangMate

Probability

 Fooled by Randomness is about probability, not in a mathematical way but as skepticism.

In this book probability is principally a branch of applied skepticism, not an engineering discipline. …

Probability is not a mere computation of odds on the dice or more complicated variants; it is the acceptance of the lack of certainty in our knowledge and the development of methods for dealing with our ignoranceOutside of textbooks and casinos, probability almost never presents itself as a mathematical problem or a brain teaser. Mother nature does not tell you how many holes there are on the roulette table , nor does she deliver problems in a textbook way (in the real world one has to guess the problem more than the solution).

Outside of textbooks and casinos, probability almost never presents itself as a mathematical problem” which is fascinating given how we tend to solve problems. In decisions under uncertainty, I discussed how risk and uncertainty are different things, which creates two types of ignorance.

Most decisions are not risk-based, they are uncertainty-based and you either know you are ignorant or you have no idea you are ignorant. There is a big distinction between the two. Trust me, you’d rather know you are ignorant.

https://fs.blog/2015/02/fooled-by-randomness/

 

Elroch

Outside of textbooks and casinos, probability almost never presents itself as a mathematical problem

Pure drivel! Firstly nature never presents itself as a mathematical problem, even in casinos. People have to find the right mathematics.

So many fields of human knowledge are filled with uncertainty that can only be modelled quantitatively using probability theory. In many, the probabilities are precisely determined by the mathematical models used (all of quantum mechanics, for example).

Moreover in other areas where there is, by contrast, no basis for a claim that a certain model is best, probability theory remains the basis of all reasoning about uncertainty. Of course it is always important to recognise when it is possible that a model is not the best. That's the reality of an inconvenient world.

Jaws_2

Randomness exists solely in certain ones of us. We spread it unto the innocent masses with glee from our knowledge of the rising chaos it can affect! "What will happen? How will they respond?! Who knows!! Who cares?! Helterskelter... YEEEEEEE!"   

Sillver1

Q. which of the following illustrations of space time fabric is more accurate?
one has space time curve toward the object, and the other has the curvature wrapped around the object.

Jaws_2

These pictures, however, suggest that space and time are three dimensional...
This, however, is clearly inaccurate as space and time are ALL-dimensional.  live.png

Elroch

You really need a 5 dimensional canvas to illustrate the curvature of space-time in 4-dimensions! As these are in short supply, no diagram can be more than illustrative.

1 dimension of space and 1 of time fit conveniently on the flat page, and the curvature can be represented in a different way (like contour lines on a map for example). But this is an incomplete, simplified version of reality.

Sillver1

the essence of the question is in the curved space : ) does the grid curve toward an object, or wrap around it?
here's another example of it curve "toward it"..

MustangMate

Space 

and Time 

Are two distinct elements that make up the universe, the third being energy/matter.

The term space-term is a concoction, representing the notion/idea that they linked together in a 4th dimension. We have researched the farthest reaches of known space, and by thinking we know much about it, we assume this knowledge is directly applicable to Time. 

Time is it's own element, that interacts with the two other elements of Space and Energy/matter that make up the universe.

A 4th element exists, that of "Consciousnesses". A Life -force, can go by many descriptions, but something that lies outside the other 3 -metaphysical. This 4th element naturally brings skepticism to it's very existence.

KingAxelson

My man . .                                                                                               

"One thing only I know, and that is that I know nothing."

"Education is the kindling of a flame, not the filling of a vessel."

"By all means, marry. If you get a good wife, you'll become happy; if you get a bad one, you'll become a philosopher."

MustangMate

Wherever matter exists, it bends the geometry of spacetime. This results in a curved shape of space-time which can be understood as gravity. The white lines on the picture on the right represent the effect of mass on space-time.- copied

250px-Spacetime_curvature.png

 
Two-dimensional analogy of space-time distortion
MustangMate

The ideas of space-time came about from Einstein's work in relativity, making explanations by describing how Gravity works. They got it all wrong.

Gravity is the interaction between Space and the other element of nature, that of energy/matter. Gravity can be better explained by such a mathematical model. That Gravity is explained by the "4th dimension continuum" of time+space = a set of rules, .... is a backward step. 

MustangMate

Strictly speaking, a Bayesian needs to choose the hypothesis/model class before seeing the data, which seldom reflects scientific practice.

https://medium.com/intuitionmachine/cargo-cult-statistics-versus-deep-learning-alchemy-8d7700134c8e

Sillver1
MustangMate wrote:

Wherever matter exists, it bends the geometry of spacetime. This results in a curved shape of space-time which can be understood as gravity. The white lines on the picture on the right represent the effect of mass on space-time.- copied

 
Two-dimensional analogy of space-time distortion

in other words.. in 2d the grid always wrap around the object, but almost all 3d illustrations show the grid going inward to the object. why?

here's another example..

https://www.forbes.com/sites/startswithabang/2018/08/11/ask-ethan-is-spacetime-really-a-fabric/#f9b935997fc3

Elroch
MustangMate wrote:

Strictly speaking, a Bayesian needs to choose the hypothesis/model class before seeing the data, which seldom reflects scientific practice.

https://medium.com/intuitionmachine/cargo-cult-statistics-versus-deep-learning-alchemy-8d7700134c8e

Seems to surprisingly miss the point. It is true that the data that has been seen before a hypothesis is chosen cannot be used to validate that hypothesis. However, the data that is seen after choosing a hypothesis can be used to strengthen belief in that hypothesis.

This is exactly the same as the scientific method, only made quantitative.

 

MustangMate

The lines drawn on the "fabric" of space are meant to represent "Gravity"

MustangMate

The scientific method is a search to find order.

Elroch
Optimissed wrote:
Elroch wrote:
Optimissed wrote:

It hasn't had a singularity for nearly 50 years.>>

Are you saying that you're nearly 50 years old?

What I said wasn't about me. It was about the fact that the standard model of cosmology had inflation added in the 1970s.

Only by the people who were rather behind times, since inflation was known about in the 1950s. But the static model persisted.

No, inflation is not that old as a hypothesis, and no, static cosmology was not a tenable viewpoint in the 1950s (barring the extremes of speculation that never convinced many people). Einstein correctly dropped his static universe model (which was anyhow unstable) in 1929 due to Hubble's observations, and there is no time it has made sense since then. For one thing, the early Universe is visibly different to the present Universe (eg quasars and, the CMB, dating from when the Universe was a pretty homogeneous gas).

I believe you are confusing concepts here. Later you mention you don't have much idea of what cosmological inflation is, so I suggest you refer to any history of science (and be careful about the terms being used).

This is what I mean .... academics tend to be behind reality.

You are seriously suggesting cosmologists lag the general public in their ideas? grin.png

Same as interested amateurs, who read their books always thirty years previously.

So who the heck are the academics lagging then? You have eliminated professionals and amateurs, which is everyone. Alien cosmologists, maybe?


<<<While people refer to this being very early in the Big Bang, there is no bound on how long inflation lasted, nor any knowledge of anything that might have preceded it (information is effectively eradicated by inflation).>>>

I don't know the supposed difference between inflation and expansion.

It has a distinct character. The expansion is exponentially fast (rather than linearly fast) and is able to explain homogeneity in a way expansion of the normal (Hubble) kind cannot. However (IMHO) it is misleading to describe the expansion as being superluminal, as some carelessly do. Similarly, it is incorrect (and misleading) to say that any two points in the Universe are moving apart at greater than the speed of light (which even well-qualified people sometimes do). This is because this conclusion relies on adding speeds that just cannot be added in a relativistic context. A consequence of this is that the idea of things going completely out of range of communication from each other (sometimes claimed about the cosmological horizon) is not true.

I have always assumed that they are just trying to fudge the maths.

That indicates an unreasonable lack of respect for people who really know their stuff and who have checked the arguments for this in considerable detail over several decades. Note in particular, inflation is predictive, and it has taken decades to test some of these predictions. It is doing well!

They can't let go of the Big Bang, because it's what they learned when they were young. It takes a decent amount of mental control not to be attached, you know, to be able to become non-attached. It's a meditation thing.

It works as a scientific theory, and has just become better and more successful as more detail has been added (with some fascinating exceptions, some of the biggest questions in physical science, such as the matter-antimatter asymmetry).

It's all downhill now, you know. At 45 I could still play football for three hours. Now, 23 years later, I can barely crawl out of bed.

S
on also got an MMath (1st) from Newcastle, and the physics bit was at St Andrews.  He once told me that he thinks physics PhDs are easy and hard, or "soft" and "useful". He thinks that a relatively average person can get a physics PhD if they're lucky with their assignment.

LOL. The average person can't pass A-level physics, so your son is very generous.

Average PhD candidate is what he meant. Even I have A level physics. I think I took it twice, even though I passed the first time. I was taking another subject and I entered for physics the second time just for fun, did no revision at all and got the same level pass as the first time, which I think was a D.

ok, while I not going to pretend a D is a great grade, that identifies you as of significantly above average intelligence, IMHO.  Your skills are probably somewhere other than physics, but physics is a subject that only attracts brighter people (in the way some arts subjects don't).

He also thinks that the less able tend to be drawn to cosmology for the reason that it's much harder to get real evidence which will prove them wrong. So actually I got the impression he doesn't have too much respect for cosmologists.

My experience tells me that people are driven to what attracts them most and the appeal of the branch of science that deals with the history of everything we can observe is clear. It is the biggest subject of all ("subject" in the sense of that which is studied).

That's because the largest amount of PhD candidates are just moderately bright.

People who get an excellent results in a degree in a hard subject (generally a requirement for a PhD in such subjects) are in a small percentile of brightness in any reasonable sense.

It fits into what Edmund said. I've talked to them in droves on Physics sites in Facebook. I was once in a tremendous argument about an hypothetical elecromagnetic machine mounted on a base and stood on a floor with sequential electromagnets firing off. It was in a really big Facebook physics group dominated by a number of people with physics PhDs. It was meant to be a trick question and in their view, the machine, which was a kind of living sculpture, wouldn't move because of equal action and reaction.

I have had a problem on a physics site with one narrow-minded person in a position of influence, who seems to spend most of his time regurgitating basic physics on the net but who appears unable to intelligently discuss physics that is not yet set in stone. My response, don't waste time where there are such people.

I explained that it would move and I explained why, and the physics PhDs became very angry and of course they were backed up by 100 or so people of somewhat average intelligence. Ultimately they threw me out of that group and one chap, an Aussie, brighter than the others, left with me in protest.

Unbeknown to me, my son had watched the whole proceedings and messaged me to tell me that I had won that argument in about 15 different ways and in his view, never made a mistake. I think he was a 3rd year PhD student at the time. You know, he never ever took physics in his life before becoming a physics PhD candidate , theoretical physics being mainly maths, and in his first term he learned physics up to degree level. Anyhow, that was his take.

My take is that cosmologists are divided into three. By far the largest part is data collectors and by and large they don't know what's going on. Then there are the people who design the experiments and so on, and set out the maths. The third set is those who are capable of interpreting the data and the results. There aren't any of them, because there is no cosmologist at the moment, in the world, of sufficient stature. So the others have no-one to follow.

There have been a lot of very talented cosmologists over the decades, and also other excellent physicists and astronomers who delve into this area. It is amusing that you reject them all as being fools!

 

 

Sillver1
MustangMate wrote:

The lines drawn on the "fabric" of space are meant to represent "Gravity"

yes, but i like to keep it simple, so lets just call it space. like that...

and with matter...

Quote: "Instead of an empty, blank, 3D grid, putting a mass down causes what would have been 'straight' lines to instead become curved by a specific amount. Note that they appear to drag towards, rather than away from, the mass in question. Christopher Vitale of Networkologies and the Pratt Institute"