The Law of Accelerating Returns...

...as it applies to artifical intellignce. A paper on how 'The Singularity' will become. The introduction follows:

"An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to the common-sense "intuitive linear" view. So we won't experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century -- it will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at today's rate). The "returns," such as chip speed and cost-effectiveness, also increase exponentially. There's even exponential growth in the rate of exponential growth. Within a few decades, machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence, leading to The Singularity -- technological change so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history. The implications include the merger of biological and nonbiological intelligence, immortal software-based humans, and ultra-high levels of intelligence that expand outward in the universe at the speed of light."

 http://www.kurzweilai.net/articles/art0134.html

Enjoy!

Sean

Comments?

I share your interest in thinking about the future and what might be. However I don`t think the analysis of the history of technology is impartial considering the multitude of graphs have a multitude of different time periods they are refering to. It looks like we are only being shown the bits that fit the exponential increase idea.

Also, hasn`t machine intelligence already surpassed human intelligence in many ways, or are you talking about in all ways?

Finally, how can intelligence (an abstract noun) travel though space at any speed what so ever? Is it not just a concept for which we have given a name (e.g. like bravery and success) and not something that can literally travel through space.  

"There's even exponential growth in the rate of exponential growth"

so it's y= x^(x^2) ...that's fast.

But there's got to be an upper-bound somewhere. Maybe the death of everybody.

its alive! ITS ALIVE!!!! You've made a MONSTER!!!!!!!!!!

Heh heh