Chess Position Survey Two

An old thread called Chess Position Survey was resurrected recently... I thought I'd create one of my own with a position that has puzzled me... really it gives me fits. I'm quite unable at this point in my chess development to evaluate this position correctly. Give it a try... Who is better -- White or Black?

This position arises in a Caro-Kan Panov-Botvinnik attack. It's not the mainline, but it's not so far off the beaten track, either.

I like white with be3

I like white too, but one bad move and the initiative will peter out...

And no one cares that white's pawns are in a shambles and his king doesn't have a good shelter to castle to? It's so hard for me to see this as favoring White!

White with d5 and black doesnt do well from here , the white initiative is more than enough for the bad structure imo

Opening statistics for this position give White a healthy advantage;  chess engines put it at about 1/2 a pawn for White. 

So, I understand that I'm wrong to prefer Black here -- but I wonder what do I need to learn to be able to make this evaluation correctly myself?

To me, it looks like White has long term defects in his position that make his endgame prospects very poor. Every exchange favors Black. Yes, White has an initiative, but he needs to play very actively. To me, White has his back to the wall -- find a meaningful attack, or perish.

Maybe I have a defensive mind-set... I don't like positions where you've got your bridges burnt behind you.

This is a case of initiative against structure.

Without knowing if white's initiative is enough or not for an advantage, you can also consider that after white pushes d5, black will have to concede some long-term weaknesses to finish his development (for example pushing e6 allows a favourable d5xe6 trade for white).

I wouldn't be surprised if the assessment changes, were it black to move : black simply plays 1...e6 and he might be slightly better, as 2.d5 doesn't seem to work ?!

What do the stronger players think ?

JG, thanks for posting another! This one's a bit richer and more interesting.

Actually, I coincedentally looked at this line in the game explorer the day before this was posted, it seems to be the ...Bg4 line of the QGA, which gives the clue that white may be better

But yeah, I could certainly believe that white is better here, as the doubled g pawns are not weak (yet!) and that open g file will be an additional resource for attacking black's king, as if the IQP wasn't enough of a resource! In this case white's development is very smooth, has nice control of d5 (for a breakthrough later), has two bishops, and the g file, plus black's knights are awkward (the knight b6 would be SO much better on f6), and this makes me think white probably has enough initiative to claim an advantage, but black isn't without his long term chances I suppose.

Edit: wait, it's the panov botvinnik? Damn it really looked like a ...Bg4 QGA to me!

Edit#2: Uh oh, this position isn't as clear as I thought. d4 is immediately damn weak, and I don't know if I want to play d5 so soon, allowing ...Ne5 with some attack on my structure! What about 1 Bf4!? meeting ...Nxd4 with Bb5+, maybe with a knight coming to b5? I don't know. Also then d5 would be more of a move, taking away e5 for black.

Edit#3: Maybe d5 indeed, with the idea ...Ne5 Bb5+ being quite annoying for black. White could castle either way here; both seem unsafe, but remember the center is where white is strong, which will be more important than a black idea on the kingside or queenside.

So my guess is, white will have enough initiative and space and black the trouble developing to be better, but that's only a guess. I think I'll post some actual analysis later when I have time. Black's weaknesses aren't obvious, but right now white's the only one capable of really attacking anything.

Ok, so I have done some analysis of 1 d5, and at first I thought it was great for white, but after 1...Nd4! followed by 2...e5! and 3...Bb4! I actually think black gets the advantage.The 1...Ne5 variation is bad for black but instructive, and it was the first move I considered.

I don't think a grandmaster would post here.

What has more activity and space.I know the king is open but there seems to be no immediate threat raining down on black that can rate his position as not good (white may, if it wants ,castle on queenside at a later stage) but Bc4/Bg3 can put an end to black's queenside castle plans if any.And in case of king side castle plans then an open g-file with Bd3,Qc2 etc and Be3 can provide quite an attacking initiative.

But white must play carefully as black can have good counter-play, but if white is a very strong player then he/she should have no problems playing well though i feel that white's strength must be in not to trade pieces and use his activity to trouble black so that then resulting endgame is not unfavorable to him.

I would rate this position pretty equal and if played carefully and correctly then neither side should have major problems.

PS: @Elubas: Nice work!!

@Elubas : you've found an excellent defense against 1.d5

In the 3.Be3 variation, I wonder if white couldn't try 6.Qe3+ and keep some initiative (6...Qe6 7.Bb5+) ?

edit : just finished my coffee and noticed that 6.Qxb4 is available as well

Concerning 1.Bf4 black can simply respond 1...Qxd4 2.Be3 Qb4 practically forcing the queen trade and taking a sledgehammer to white's so called initiative.  Don't forget to falsify.

Damn... how could I miss ...Qxd4? Guess I'm just used to queen grabs right in the center going horribly wrong!

I find it really hard to believe there's anything other than dynamic equality here.  But then again, what the hell do I know.  I know I'd never willingly enter into this variation as white.  Like the OP I'm averse to structural messes and see nothing but negatives in a  position like this.  The sad part is that I'd never even consider that white might be better.  It seems we spend our entire lives trying to unlearn the "principles" we learned as kid.  Doubled pawns bad! 

I wouldn't mind playing the black side of this position:

Well at first glance I definitley liked white's position, but black has had some key tactical resources when he's needed them, and unfortunately for white the pressure on d4 forces this kind of immediate action with d5 or Bf4. If he didn't have to release this kind of tension I would love white, but white has to do something right away, and right now black's ideas to take advantage of the looseness of moves like d5 look quite good.

A lot of times the evaluation of a position is determined by who the tactics will work out for, especially in a dynamic situation like this. If they work out for black, he has weaknesses to work with. If they work for white, black gets blown off the board. I like these survey threads.

"elubas: Well at first glance I definitley liked white's position, but black has had some key tactical resources when he's needed them, and unfortunately for white the pressure on d4 forces this kind of immediate action with d5 or Bf4. If he didn't have to release this kind of tension I would love white, but white has to do something right away, and right now black's ideas to take advantage of the looseness of moves like d5 look quite good."

I think d5 is strong for White... I thought  the main variation you posted earlier seemed quite plausible and White stayed better. What is this line that has you liking black?

I don't understand Tonydal's comment. This seems like a pretty good position to look at in that A) it's not a dead line... high level players still pass this way from time to time, so someone thinks it's worth playing for both sides, and B) it's a sort of unbalanced position that seems to want to resolve itself one way or another if you can just analyze it well enough... either Black solves his development problems and gets equality and more, or White uses his dynamic plusses to draw real blood.

Sorry for the confusion JG. 1...Nd4! is the move that gives white some problems, but it wasn't the first move I analyzed so 1...Ne5 was the "main line", yet much less challenging.

And tonydal, I think there are many positions actually that because for fashion reasons have not been looked at so extensively that they miss certain ideas as well. I'm not saying the ideas posted here are correct or refute anything, but it is possible and in any case to me it seems instructive.

after 1.d5Nd4 2.Qd1e5 3.dxe6Nxe6 why not Bb5+?

Took us that long, huh?

Yeah, the analysis is terribly flawed. I think now it would make sense to use rybka or something, as now that we have done analysis it will be more instructive to see what it thinks compared to us.

@shambo, yes that does look irritating for black, keeps his pieces tied down as in many other lines.