Chess.com Blitz vs. Over the Board (USCF) rating

Hi all,

I know this is a quite recurring topic. In fact, it is one of the most popular/often posted about topics on chess.com. I also do recognize that oftentimes people do not believe that blitz and standard chess have any correlation. That being said, I am completing a study where I wish to compare people's blitz to their STABLE over the board rating. In this case, stable specifically refers to a rating that fluctuates only slightly (not provisional) and is not only going up or down (i.e. your not underrated/overrated. and have a low K factor). My hope is that this study will either confirm that OTB (uscf) ratings have either no correlation with chess.com blitz ratings OR that the study will show that there is some reasonable correlation to chess.com blitz. 

Please only post in this thread if you are both active in OTB play and blitz- I would prefer to avoid outdated data in this study.

Thank you,

Pawnpusher3

P.S. Since I haven't played USCF recently, my USCF is outdated and therefore I will not include my information in this data study. 

My blitz rating is still provisional so I wouldn't be of any help. But isn't possible to grab all the ratings on the USCF website and use that?

I like endgames a lot, especially the ones where I get stalemated. :)

I'm not going to submit my USCF data as I suspect I'm underrated on USCF, though not by too much. That said, I do some observations for you:

• Over the last few years the average blitz rating on chess.com has gone down a fair amount. It was in the high 1100s when I first joined, then moved to the mid 1100s. It's now in the high 1000s. Who knows why that is. It may be intentional -- chess.com trying to bring the ratings in line with over-the-board ratings. Or it may not: simply some flaw in how the ratings work here with a lot of new players.
• This may be an ignorant question, but how would we even know our K factor?
• A friend who is similarly rated to me in USCF has a chess.com blitz rating about 200 points lower than I have. He plays 5 minute games, I play 10 minute games. I bet that has an effect as well.

Please read the original post: Blitz is chess.com (NOT USCF) and USCF is standard USCF. 

@Drawmaster: Great comment. In regards to the rating deflation, thats why I am redoing this rating study (yours was excellent, but as we discussed it may, perhaps now, be slightly outdated). One's K factor is quite similar to the R factor for chess.com ratings. If you only play 1 or 2 games annually, your K factor is very high. If you play 50 games or more annually it will be extremely low. To check it, you can use the USCF rating calculator, although that can only give you an approximation. In regards to the last bullet, I think that may have a slight impact, however, I don't think it is significant enough (because each player has the same amount of time, it should be rather similar in regards to blitz ratings on here) to impact the result of the study. 

Any one want to start posting data?

PP, there has already been several threads that posted data, and a blog. Check them out. You're asking for people to repeat information that has already been collected and posted.

This is going to be modern. As Drawmaster pointed out the ratings on chess.com have been deflating over time, whereas, as many people have mentioned, otb ratings are re-inflating. This study is to establish a correlation (if any exists), not to repeat information. I am very familiar with other threads, but my goal is to create a modern set of data that is complete and semi-comprehensive, atleast for this study's purposes. 

http://www.chess.com/article/view/chesscom-rating-comparisons?page=1

Another sock puppet account?

There's no way that person has a Ph.D. in math as he claims. It's interesting that you think s/he is from Texas since he claims to be from North Korea.

My OTB rating is currently 1960 +/- 15 (FIDE and KNSB) and has been around that level for 5 or 6 years (In the past it reached as high as 2140  ).  I think this is comparable to a USCF rating at the same level. 

My chess.com 5-minute rating is stuck around 1650. I get close to 1700, then lose a few and drop back.

This supports the theory of a 200 point rating difference.

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My chess.com blitz is usually around 1550. Peak rating 1670. USCF standard rating is currently 1806. IMO, there's seems to be some credence to the idea of a roughly 150-200 point rating difference. Even on a good day, I can never manage to claw my way to 1700 on chess.com blitz. Whoever is conducting this survey, message me and I can give you my USCF ID# if needed.

Want to see a poor correlation? Here you go: http://www.chess.com/forum/view/general/post-your-fide-online-and-tactics-rating