My work here is done. To my surprise I saw my exchange with Kramnik appear in a GothamChess video. That was fun! Never in a million years did I expect the exchange a) to become as interactive with Vlad as it did and b) gather so much attention. FW...
Since Vladimir Kramnik tends to delete posts once he is faced with logic, perhaps one little post to address the 45.5 out of 46 leads to a 3600+ rating argument. He deleted this reply, so I think I will just leave it here.
After a serious debate...
Executing a Monte Carlo simulation for this scenario involves simulating numerous instances of Nakamura's games based on his win probabilities against 2900-rated opponents, then analyzing the frequency and length of winning streaks in these simu...