FIDE Candidates 2020 - MVL replaces Radjabov!

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I just saw the news on the FIDE website that Teimour Radjabov (the winner of the 2019 FIDE World Cup) withdrew from the 2020 FIDE Candidates, and will be replaced by Maxime Vachier-Lagrave! 




I saw someone claim on Twitter that this is due to the coronavirus outbreak, but I would prefer not to speculate. Instead, let's look back on the journey of these two players last year, in the qualification process for the 2020 Candidates.

As I noted above, Radjabov qualified by making the finals of (and then, winning) the 2019 FIDE World Cup. Ironically, he knocked out MVL in the second game of their semi-final match to advance to the final and secure his place in the 2020 World Cup. Here is that game:

For those that remember Petrosian's saying that the King's Indian fed his family (as he scored very well against it), one may be tempted to make a similar quip with Radjabov and the Grunfeld, after seeing his win against Jeffery Xiong in the quarter-final match:



Now for Maxime Vachier-Lagrave (often shortened to MVL). He was the reserve for the 2020 FIDE Candidates, as he had the highest average FIDE rating (combining the FIDE rating lists from February 2019 to January 2020) of all players not already qualified for the 2020 Candidates. (Anish Giri qualified in this way for the event in the first place).

We already saw that MVL narrowly missed out on qualifying for the Candidates via. the FIDE World Cup (where he finished in 3rd place) and, initially, by highest average rating (coming 2nd on this measure among the eligible players, after Anish Giri). 
Since MVL did not play in the Grand Swiss Isle of Man tournament (won by Wang Hao), this meant that his only remaining chance to qualify for the 2020 FIDE Candidates was via. the FIDE Grand Prix tournaments, where two players would qualify across a series of tournaments, based on who gained the most FIDE Grand Prix points.

The first of these events that MVL participated in was the Riga FIDE Grand Prix. He put in a phenomenal performance, consecutively defeating three elite Grandmasters in the classical phase of the match to gain three 'bonus points' in the Grand Prix standings. Here are those key wins.

First, in Round 1 against David Navara, where he made the Caro-Kann look like an inferior opening:


Second, a very nice win against Topalov, after Topalov's piece sacrifice was not entirely successful:


Then, MVL knocked out Grischuk (who would go on to win the FIDE Grand Prix with 20 points) by switching to a Benko after Grischuk's unusual 3.h4:

The final of the Riga Grand Prix, MVL against Shakhriyar Mamedyarov, went down to the wire, with the players eventually playing an Armageddon game to decide the tournament, after MVL won two must-win games immediately following a defeat. 
You can find my analysis of the two decisive classical games of that final in the videos below:


In that Armageddon game, it was Mamedyarov's nerves that proved stronger:
Despite not winning the tournament, MVL's strong 2nd place put him in a good position to qualify for the Candidates. 

In his 2nd FIDE Grand Prix tournament, in Hamburg, MVL again started extremely well, winning 1.5-0.5 against Wei Yi and (again) Topalov. However, in Round 3, he was knocked out by Grischuk, who played a very strong technical game to convert an advantage:

Grischuk went on to win the Hamburg GP event (beating Duda in the final 3.5-2.5) to almost guarantee his spot in the Candidates. 

So, it all came down to the final FIDE Grand Prix event, in Jerusalem (December 2019). The FIDE Candidates qualification essentially came down to the Round 3 semi-final match between Ian Nepomniachtchi and Maxime Vachier Lagrave. Both these players are Grunfeld specialists, and both games indeed were in this opening.

The key game was the first one, where Nepomniachtchi surprised MVL in the opening to get an advantage and ultimately the key win:
With this win, Nepomniachtchi made it to the final, against Wei Yi, and then beat Wei Yi 1.5-.5 to secure the FIDE Candidates spot via. the FIDE Grand Prix over MVL, who finished third in the FIDE Grand Prix standings.
A few Grandmasters have been ranking the Candidates with a score out of 5 in different chess categories. I will copy their categorization to share my overview:
Preparation: 4/5
Calculation: 4/5
Understanding: 4/5
Technique: 4/5
Time Management: 3/5
Fighting Spirit: 4/5
Hot or not: 3/5
Total: 26 (out of a maximum 35)
How do you think MVL will perform in the 2020 Candidates? 

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