Can you summit Mount Elo? Science lets you know!
After surveying what might well have been over 1M could-be respondents with detailed, intrusive, and voluminous questionnaires, followed up by individual sessions where time and willingness allowed, science and statistics (not to be confused with each other) can accurately estimate your peak Elo potential.
How good can you be? Well, with this virtual deluge of data, we used multivariate regression to deduce a stochastically sound set of response surface models. From those, we produced a set of questions that can bin your maximum potential rating with surprising accuracy. All you have to do is answer a handful of simple questions and then provide the correct one-move answers to a handful of increasingly difficult puzzles.
Best of all, you'll get comprehensive results in well...less than an hour! (It may only take two to five minutes for your less talented or incredibly gifted comrades.) Caveat emptor: Those timelines don't account for unexpected interruptions and decisions that take you along more rambling paths to achieve the final answer to your rating desire.
C'mon, it doesn't get any better than that! Don't you want to know if you could be a chess master...or even more? Or are you one of those who fears you might end up at the bottom of the rubbish heap? If so, it's time for an attitude check and to stop focusing on your current rating altitude. Fight, fight, fight!
Here are the Elo buckets at the end of all possible paths: 0, 100, 1000, 1200, 1400, 1600, 2000, 2100, 2200, 2300, 2400/IM, and 2500/GM. Refinements will add additional granularity and titles over time as this quiz is still in beta testing.
There are some interim ratings (500 being one of the most interesting sub-genres that you'll only understand if you should happen that way), but there is currently no way to reach the end of a path with an interim rating.
What bucket will you ultimately fall in? And can you complete the entire bucket list? What if you had to complete each path in order, from lowest to highest Elo? Hey, knock yourself out!
With all that dissembling complete, it's time for you to step right up and plunk down some of your time. Blame yourself and try again if you don't like the Elo calculated initially. However, know that statistics, learnin', chance, and circumstance suggest you'll have improved at least 100 Elo the next go-round. Unless, of course, you're spelunking, checking out some of the caverns that lurk below Mount Elo. That was designed to offer some amenities as well!
Please enjoy the ride. You might want to take something for motion sickness beforehand if your equilibrium is easily upset by sudden jolts or accelerations, whether drops, switches to one side, or leaps across great Elo ranges.
If you don't enjoy this precipitous journey, there's always the comments section, though I readily delete unwelcome comments and block spammers, unless they're really funny.
Your journey around and about Mount Elo begins here.
What are Your Favorite Colors?
Okay, Monty Python chess fans. You've had plenty of time to ponder what your responses would have been to the wizard's questions. Now it's time to put fortune to chance and make a similar decision here.
Be warned, this first choice establishes your initial Elo. Choose the wrong colors and you might find yourself struggling to make up ground! Worse, after most choices there's no immediate way to start over, other than closing the blog and trying again. (That said, there are frequent shortcuts back to this page, and occasional returns to the upward hike if you didn't quite pass one test but are able to surmount a second test.)
Ready?
What are your two favorite colors? Just click on an answer from the picklist and the script will move you along the path you chose.
a. Black and red
b. Ebony and ivory
c. Silver and Black (feel free to mentally substitute the colors of your favorite sports team here)
Okay, sure, this is twice as hard as the question posed to Arthur's knights because you have to choose two colors, and we know how those knights did when asked to name only a single color.
Buck up, buttercup. Click a link. You don't want this adventure to last all day, do you?
Are you here because you play chess, or do you secretly harbor hopes of becoming the World Checkers Champion? Well, pilgrim, we'll give you the benefit of the doubt and assume you just admire Ivanchuk's choices in life.
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Your reward? An initial rating of 1000!
Whew, that had to be a relief, though you might be asking yourself, what would my Elo have been if I'd chosen differently? We won't be answering that here, you'll have to work it out on your own...later.
Time for the next narrowing of the path that leads to mastery of the 64 squares.
From the following list what is your favorite first move as White?
Yeah, it's a limited set of options, so what! Do you understand the science behind this carefully crafted quiz? I didn't think so. Select your clickbait and let the blog move you along your already foreseen path. (Statistically speaking, it's already predetermined. Whether that aligns with any particular philosophical ponderings is a topic beyond the realm of discussion in this blog.)
P.S. Additional options will be added as additional financial resources are made available. The richness of the current results already incurred considerable investments...well, of time. It didn't require much financing as chess enthusiasts devote innumerable amounts of time to ratings and are quite willing to answer random spam questions they receive online as long as there is a vague promise of some hallowed Elo at the end.
Elo, it's like bitcoin for chessnicks, chessnuts, and chessnoids.
Yours was a fine choice, despite that Candidates score versus Fischer that left Taimanov restricted to the Soviet Union for several years because his "disreputable" performance put the nation and system in a bad light. Though based on your choice of colors, it's an open question in my mind of whether you, the reader, want to play the piano or play chess. Hey, if you can perform at the highest levels in both, so be it!
Anyway, mine is not to wonder why, mine is just to help you determine your chess rating potential and perhaps leave you to sigh. Whether in relief or grief is a matter yet tbd.
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Your reward? An initial rating of 1000!
Now, batten down the hatches, we've got a really, really...easy question for you. You may not like the answers, but that's my fault, unless it's yours. The dilemma of who is wrong versus right can be quite taxing to unravel, and I have things to do, so I'll just blame it on you. Thus, it is written, and so it is and shall be.
From the following list (one path doesn't actually exist as its own route...yet...if ever), what is your favorite first move as White?
If you're struggling with this one, just close your eyes, move the mouse around randomly, and click every once in a while. We've accounted for that in our modeling, though you might end up a bit confused about how and where you ended up on or beside some unknown highway or byway. But don't worry. We threw enough random variables into our hypothesis to account for such contingencies.
[If things really go haywire, blame servers and data centers...or wind farms if that's your pet peeve.]
Silver and Black
(NOTE: Mentally substitute the sports team colors & logo of your choice upon reaching this page.)
What, you're an Oakland/Los Angeles/Las Vegas Raiders fan? What kind of answer was that? Our focus here is chess, not American football. Get with it man/woman/child/AI-bot/whoever or whatever you are!
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Your pseudo-reward/initial punishment? An initial rating of 500.
Hmmpphhh...coulda done a lot better than that. Not sure I should have let you start this quest. Well, best of luck on the next quiz. Maybe you can catch up to your previous peers, or maybe you're doomed to a rating spiral that leaves no impact on the game, only a dent on your immortal soul when you reach bottom.
[If you're taking this seriously, you really should NOT be playing this game. It's all jest for fun.]
What should White play?
Choose wisely and your Elo doubles to 1000 and you get to rejoin the circuitously winding path that could lead to a GM title (limited chances of that happening for almost anyone I know personally, but hey, give it your best shot).
Choose poorly, and the end of this path leads to a precipice where you join the other chess lemmings, executing blind leaps of faith rather than good calculation and judgment. The good news is that you've only got a maximum of 500 Elo to lose at this point!
The Silver and Black is back!!
(NOTE: Mentally substitute the sports team colors of your choice upon reaching this page.)
You survived! Glad to see you got safely through that spot of trouble and correctly executed the first move that wins material or leads to Legal's Mate. 👍🏼 Here's the proof, in case you simply guessed.
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Your reward? A renewed rating of 1000!
Next up? A question that's hard to fail, but it is possible. Get a move on now, don't sit here at the end of the paragraph dawdling.
From the following, drastically reduced list of possible opening moves (one path doesn't actually exist as its own route...yet...if ever), what is your favorite first move as White?
Because you started off on a questionable path, you're punished by missing all the clever dialogue and palaver that takes place on the more direct paths. What? You think I've got unlimited time, patience, and creativity? Well, maybe I do. 🤔 But occasionally it's good to remind my audience that I am The GOM (Grumpy Old Man). Think Rumpelstiltskin but with a thicker veneer of humor.
Silver and Black are now just Gray and Blue
(NOTE: Mentally substitute the sports team colors of your choice upon reaching this page.)
Your reward?? Final Elo = 000.
The good news is that if conducting analysis with a computer, that triple zero means the outcome is uncertain...shades of the Magic Eight Ball! Please do remember that the official rules of TSA do not allow the Magic Eight Ball in carry-on luggage for US flights. You wouldn't want your kids toy confiscated because it had too much fluid (it exceeds 3.4 ounces).
More good news! From here, you can't go down. No venturing into negative territory on this fun little trip, Neumann. (You can find this name at the origin point of the graph seen earlier, that start in the chess world where one knows nothing and sees nothing.)
DISCLAIMER: The resemblance of the above name to any living beings or magazine characters is purely an arbitrary and capricious misunderstanding on your part. The author might have intentionally used an extended spelling of A. E. Neuman's name in order to emphasize the difference and avoid any confusion on the part of legal beagles and other authority figures, as well as those who think it was just a typo. Nor should this name be construed as making any arbitrary and capricious reference to John von Neumann, the world-renowned mathematician, physicist, and computer scientist who made significant contributions to game theory...although that last topic certainly seems relevant to we chessers.
Deep breath.
This path has ended, in fire and ash. What do you want to do next?
a. Return to What are your favorite colors.
b. Go to the End.
How well do you know 1.e4 openings
Hey! Do we know that guy? Is it true he never played 1.d4 until the match with Spassky? Could it be that suddenly choosing to play on the wrong side of the board is what is what led him to abandon his throne without defending it? Was Caruana's 7-0 run against super-GMs truly comparable to Fischer's twenty consecutive wins over IMs and GMs in an Interzonal and three Candidates matches?
Those are questions we have no interest in answering here, we're just hoping to distract you enough to keep you from climbing too far and too quickly up the Elo mountain range-vertigo is real. Besides, if too many folks reach the peak, all our curves are thrown for a loop and our entire Elo estimation methodology is thrown into disrepute. Can't have that!
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First off, congratulations!! You've reached 1500 Elo.
Second, this is probably a relatively easy test if you're studied your opening names or read a lot of blogs or seen a lot of opening videos. It might be difficult if you've relied on blind intuition up to this stage of your chess career.
What's the name of this opening?
a. Two Knights Defense
b. Giuoco Piano
c. Ruy Lopez
You chose the Ruy Lopez or the Two Knights Defense
Hmm, maybe that was tougher than I thought. Here you are, and at least one of us should be red-faced that you reached this point.
Your change in Elo? Minus three hundred points, your interim rating is 1200.
Well, unless you purposely failed the e4 opening quiz because you want to try all the paths! Yeah, that's it, and we should both be certain that's the truth, the whole truth, and something that approaches nothing but the truth.
Now what? First, check under the chess table for monsters. Second, step quietly away and slowly flee for your life if they haven't noticed you yet. Third, well, you could just ignore them, what the heck.
Let's just give you a puzzle and you can decide (if you want) which of two buckets you're trying to kick. It's either 1000 or 1400 Elo after this next scintillating puzzle, taken from the London System.
Some of you might be asking, "Hey, I picked e4 as my favorite first move as White. How come you're asking me to solve a problem in a 1.d4 opening?" Duh. You didn't correctly identify a common e4 opening, so you're paying an immediate price. Suck it up. 😉
What does your intuition whisper to you?
a. Bxh7+ even though that only leaves you with a queen and knight to attack the black king, your knight is far away, and your king is still on home plate.
b. O-O to tuck the king away and develop normally. There's plenty of game left. Why get crazy?
c. Nf3 with possible ideas of h4 and Ng5 to attack the black king. Black doesn't have any obvious threats, so why not?
SCORE!!
You're a veritable Oracle! Sure, that capture was tempting, but believing in it enough to execute to the idea? Well, that's a whole different kettle of fish. Good on you!
However, this round ends here. Hey, these things happen. Plus, you may have purposely found your way here just to see how this path ended. 🙂 Turns out, you're surrounded by the ghosts of might-have beens. On the plus side, at least you got to eat cherries!
🏆
Your reward: 1400 final Elo! (Four hundred rating points better than if you'd chosen poorly on that last question.)
Let's take a look at how the game played out. The analysis is four or five years old but still hits the main points.
With that, this round has ended. What do you want to do next?
a. Return to What are your favorite colors.
b. Go to the End.
You chose a quiet move...a wrong move
Oh, dear! You failed to find the best move after failing the e4 opening quiz. Sigh, that's unfortunate for you. The analysis of how the game played out is only available after choosing the correct move.
🏆
Your reward?? Final Elo = 1000.
This path has ended, but at least you aren't in the bottom-most circle as zeroes circle around you. All in all, another day, another dollar.
What do you want to do next?
a. Return to What are your favorite colors.
b. Go to the End.
How well do you know your d4 openings
Yeah, I know. All you 1.c4 players are wondering how you ended up here. Hey, if you play 1.c4 and don't know some 1.d4 lines you are going to be very annoyed when somebody plays 1...c6 and 2...d5 against you. So, I'm doing you a big favor by shifting you over to this path!! It has absolutely nothing to do with the fact I wasn't certain if I had enough time to finish this post in time for April Fool's Day, and adding an extra path for your contrary c-pawn caused me concern, even consternation (not constipation, thank goodness).
Besides, think of all the 1.Nf3 and 1.b3 fans who are nettled because they didn't even get mentioned in that pop quiz? Everybody's a whiner. Get over yourselves if you want to find out how high up Mount Elo you can climb!
Did you get it all out of your system? The keening, wailing, and gnashing of the teeth? Excellent!
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First of all, congratulations!! You've reached 1500 Elo.
Now, carefully examine the moves in the diagram below.
Ready, set, guess. What's the name of this opening? There is only one fully correct guess.
a. Slav
b. Semi-Slav
c. Tarrasch Defense
d. Queen's Gambit Accepted
Oh, wait, that was cruel. The Slav and the Semi-Slav are too similar for us to be asking any old 1500 Elo player to distinguish between them.
Hmm...what to do, what to do?
Oh, I know! We'll let you choose opening first moves for White again! Only two choices this time, so you can't lose!
Why not just let you return to the Semi-Slav path? Well, it's possible you've already taken that route in an attempt to reach all paths. After all, I don't know where you are in this Cretan maze. Do be sure not to be grazed by the Minotaur's horns.
Game on, good reader!!
You Chose the Tarrasch Defense or Queen's Gambit Accepted
Well, that's unfortunate...for you.
But you can still salvage a couple hundred rating points with one inspirational thought!
What is Black's best move in this position?
a. 6...Be6 because White isn't really winning a pawn.
b. 6...Bh5 to maintain the pin. If White wants to open up their kingside with 7.g4, that's all on them.
c. 6...Bxf3 and then develop quickly.
d. 6...h5 to protect your bishop.
Sarcasm on your part? Really? Hey, don't blame me because you managed to pick the worst of four choices. Pure, random chance gave you a 75% chance there, bucko. Apparently, the descending hierarchy of luck is manifest destiny, good luck, some luck, misplaced luck, no luck at all, bad luck, terrible luck, and at the very bottom of that list, your luck. Well, at least on this spin of Fate's wheel.
Hmm...then again, perhaps you spent several hours trying to get to this stage because you wanted to traverse each and every path. If so, CONGRATULATIONS!!
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Your reward for reaching the termination point along this path? A final Elo of 1000.
With all the hand-wringing, forehead-slapping, consolation and administrative tasks handled, the t's crossed and the i's dotted, this path has ended.
What do you want to do next?
a. Return to What are your favorite colors.
b. Go to the End.
Ah, you played it safe, let me cry for you. If you want to win, sometimes you just need to go for the gusto. That said, you won't be punished for taking the safe path and you won't lose any rating points. On the other hand, you won't gain any points either.
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Your standing: 1200 Elo.
No change to your rating, see, I told you so. That has to be worth something doesn't it? Doesn't it? I mean sure, you could have reached 1400 Elo, but what's couple hundred rating points when your friends who leveled up are hamming it up over you.
I know, you were hoping for an explanation of why these moves are playable, but your choices were deemed not good enough. SORRY! To get that snippet of information you'd have to go back and then retrace your mouse clicks, but this time selecting the correct move in that Ruy Lopez position.
Lest you have misread me, let me make it emphatically clear: This path has ended!
What do you want to do next?
a. Return to What are your favorite colors.
b. Go to the End.
Congratulations on offering up your bishop, even though it's only move six in the opening!!
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Your reward: 1400 final Elo!
Yes, you're quite welcome. And, yes, certainly I'll explain why it was the best choice. With a sample game.
I know the comments and the game line only offer a quick and dirty explanation but do hope you got the idea.
Excuse me for interrupting your celebrations, but since this path is now blocked, what do you want to do next?
a. Return to What are your favorite colors.
b. Go to the End.
Really?? 1.g4?? The Grob?? Even the Orangutang has some minor theoretical justification. Why don't you just follow up 1.g4?? with 2.f?? (or f3) and see if your opponent manages to land their queen on h4, ending the game.
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Well, at least you showed some moxie, however misplaced. Your reward?? Some might think so, I guess. Final Elo = 100.
This path has imploded. What do you want to do next?
a. Return to What are your favorite colors.
b. Go to the End.
You got through the opening phases!
Wow, you made it this far! Don't forget to take some time later to explore some of the pathways you probably skated right by. They're fun in their own right. Well, in the opinions of some.
Without further ado, your new Elo = 2000!
Of course, that just means things are about to get more interesting. Some of you will have seen the problems you're about to encounter. Others? Well, not so much. I will suggest that general principles will assist you, but in some cases, you must calculate very well indeed if you want to keep climbing Mount Elo.
Black played exd5. Hey, I just remembered, you're rated 2000. That's the only hint a strong player like you gets!
White to move:
Pick the correct answer, and you'll get a fully annotated game. O'wise, just sour grapes, a final Elo estimate, and the chance to start over.
Ow! You slipped on that move and broke your momentum.
Better luck in six months! You didn't play a "bad" move, but practice and the computers both assail it as "not the best move."
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Your final Elo estimate: 2000.
Hey, no lost rating points, you're still an "expert."
However, this path stops here while you await a medivac. What do you want to do next?
a. Return to What are your favorite colors.
b. Go to the End.
Your new Elo = 2200!
If you want, take some time and look over the game that just catapulted you to the realm of NM (in many countries).
Rested up? Ready to continue your ascent? Or will you slip back to the expert level and end this trek?
This next one's a bit tricky.
Black is back on their heels but can still defend by choosing correctly. Just to let you know, one of the choices will only slow you down momentarily. Two of the choices indicate the GM title is out of your reach (well, at least on this go). Well, big shock, that means only one of the four choices below will let you immediately scale the next ridge on the way to the peak. Good luck!
a. ...hxg6
b. ...Re7
c. ...Qe7
d. ...fxe5
hxg6 is hard to justify practically
The so-so news? This attempted ascent ran into a KevinChessSmith-directed cul-de-sac. No further progress for any petitioners. Don't be impractical and try to find a way around when there's another path available.
The good news? You can jump back to the previous scene and make another choice! If so, then click your heels three times, your mouse once (if it works that way), and return to You've leveled up!
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Or you could say, "I'm tired", and choose to end it all here with a 2300 Elo (for success and bravery). Of course, you won't get to see the analysis that indicates why this path might be impractical if you don't try, try again.
Still, if that's your decision, then go to the End.
Ooh. A major tilt devastates your rating. Well, these things happen...to most people.
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Final Elo = 2100.
What do you want to do next?
a. Return to What are your favorite colors.
b. Go to the End.
The top of the world is in sight! Well, not if we include Stockfish 18 and others of that ilk. But now you're at a point where you could easily encounter Magnus or Naka, perhaps both, in later rounds of Titled Tuesday. Well, if you have a 3000-blitz rating on chess.com.
Your new Elo = 2400!
If you want, take some time and look over the game that just catapulted you to the FIDE realm of IM titles, barring the fact you still need to beat actual GMs in certain qualifying events...amongst other nitnoids.
Alrighty then (or allefty if that's your dominant hand), time for the ultimate test!
What's the best defensive move for Black in this 1970 Interzonal Fischer - Larsen game? I'll assume all of you quickly surmise that this is not a game taken from the shellacking Larsen encountered in their 1971 Candidates match.
a. ...gxh5
b. ...g5
c. ...Bf6
d. ...Rf6
Well, you didn't lose ground, but you took a hit.
Is it worse to fail this near the top? If that's what you think, you might never cross that final threshold. Buck up and show some stamina and perseverance! But do lick your wounds for a while to erase those momentary scars from your psyche.
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Final Elo: 2400
What do you want to do next?
a. Return to What are your favorite colors.
b. Go to the End.
It's "Crunch Time"...but you got crunched. 🤕
Oof, just when you thought your heart's desire was within reach, you took a double blow. Welcome to reality. Most of us are not child geniuses, nor would we wish to be considered idiot savants. So, you took a fall. Rub some dirt on it and move on. Today will soon be just one of many yesterdays.
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Final Elo: 2200
What do you want to do next?
a. Return to What are your favorite colors.
b. Go to the End.
GM–You are King/Queen of the Hill!!
CONGRATULATIONS!! You made it to Elo 2500 and can claim the GM title!!
Well, there's that little matter of three qualifying norms, but that's just a matter of putting in ten thousand hours of practice and spending lots of time in shoddy hotels and suffering in open cabin seating that doesn't provide enough leg or body room for any rationally-sized human.
Bottom line: Weird, statistically biased science has determined that you have what it takes to claim the GM title. Well, in this dream world of my creation, one that I find quite satisfying indeed as I've now made it to this stage 100 times out of 100. That goes beyond mere coincidence and merges smoothly into the realm of metaphysical truth! Well, as I practice it.
The End. Thank goodness it's over!!
For those who didn't make it to the 2500 metric on Mount Elo, never fear. It's just a matter of persistence...oh, and not acting like there's a time control and your clock is about to go to zero so you must guess now, now, now!!!
Hope you had fun and aren't too winded. Indeed, you might want to go back and explore some of the alternative branches to see what ratings hang as low fruit at the end of each.
Want to climb that mountain again? Or just explore some side paths? WOW! I'm impressed. Just click here.
For those who feel they've achieved completion or redemption, or just want a break, take time to celebrate below with a timeless marching band. It purposely starts out a bit patchy, just like our chess journeys. However, improvement is inevitable (particularly at the conclusion of a movie). And improvement often happens far faster than one might expect. Best of luck on your chess journeys!!
May your manifest destiny be as remarkable as you are.
Happy April Fool's Day!! 😁
