A Data-Driven Guide to Winning Chess: Chp. 1, The Advance Caro-Kann

A Data-Driven Guide To Winning Chess

INTRODUCTION: This is the first chapter in a series of opening studies I will be sharing in the coming weeks-months. Working from a dataset of over 35 million games, I have been studying tendencies of play at the intermediate-level (1000-1800, µ=1485) and am developing a data-driven repertoire for the intermediate chess player based on my analysis. Unlike other opening studies, the recommendations contained herein are based on real-world performance rather than theoretical or engine-based study.

GOALS: The information contained in these studies is intended to help players build a comprehensive cognitive map of the critical decisions that must be made at key points against the most common and most dangerous continuations contained within the dataset. Most common continuations represent at least 85% of continuations played by the opponent, while the most dangerous continuations may be played as little as 1-2% of the time, but are covered here for completeness. Not all lines are covered here - in particular, less common lines which are inaccurate, pose no challenge to the position, or are covered in another section by transposition, are not discussed; in these cases, the player is expected to have a high probability of winning against moves not covered here simply by playing sound chess. Lines which may have greater success in higher rating ranges are not necessarily studied here, and if not covered are likely not supported by performance metrics in the intermediate rating range.

HOW TO USE THESE STUDIES

• First, study ONLY the main lines of each diagram, and commit these to memory
• Second, work sequentially through each diagram learning the common sidelines for each continuation, these are high-yield lines that will help you to solidify your repertoire
• Finally, learn the rare and dangerous lines that represent only a small fraction of the positions you'll see. These are low-yield, and you may even skip them until you see them in-game, then return here to compare your game to the continuations presented here.
• Do not fixate on details, instead focus on understanding the patterns of development and how the CK pawn structure evolves with different continuations. But also know when you must make an atypical move to maintain advantage. For example, the a4:e8 diagonal is a liability for black in all positions, and commonly the e5 pawn is poisonous; even when undefended, if captured, it deflects a defender away from this weak diagonal and allows white to infiltrate on the queenside with tempo. This structural weakness in an immutable characteristic of the CK and something you should be attentive to in any continuation you face.

The Caro-Kann

BACKGROUND: The reason I've decided to start with the Advance Caro-Kann is simple: statistically, the Caro-Kann is the strongest opening against e4 in the intermediate rating range. e5 and c5 openings comprise two out of three games the e4 player plays, while the Caro-Kann is encountered in less than 1 in 20. The intermediate e4 player's unfamiliarity the opening may play a part in their poor performance against it. However, to play the Caro-Kann proficiently as black, you must be prepared to face the following variations:

• 1) Advance CK (50% of CK games)
• 2) the Exchange CK (30%)
• 3) Main Line/Classical Variation (10%)

For best results, you should also know:

• Accelerated Panov (2. c4) (2%)
• Modern Variation (4. Nd2) (2%)
• Fantasy/Maroczy Variation (4. f3) (1%)

which are the only continuations that consistently give white >50% win-rates, but represent just 5% of games played. Similarly to white's poor performance against the CK, CK players may fare worse against these continuations simply from lack of familiarity, rather than objective superiority of these continuations.

BASICS: The Caro-Kann begins after 1.e4 c6. Most commonly white will play 2. d4, but Nf3, Bc4, and even f4 are common moves also. When Nf3 is played before d4, in almost all cases the same positions will ultimately be reached by transposition with d4 coming a move or two later, of no consequence to the position as black's moves are the same regardless of white's move order variations. Bc4 is a losing move (black wins about 55% of games) after d5, exd5, cdx5 Bb3 and is not discussed further.

Chapter 1: THE ADVANCE CARO-KANN

INTRO: The ACK is reached after 1. e4 c6 2. d4 d5 3. e5 (advancing the pawn). The best move, without question, is to spend an extra tempo now pushing the c-pawn to c5, challenging white's control over the center. At this point, white wins just 42% of the time, a tremendous advantage for black on move 3! This move is played in just 12% of games.

Most of the time, white responds 4. c3 to support d4, which blocks the natural development of their queenside knight. Less commonly, 4. Nf3 is played. In only 10% of cases does white play 4. dxc5, which this author considers the critical test. The studies below examine these continuations in great depth.

1.1 MAIN LINES

A. 4. c3 (60% of games). Eval: -0.9 (-2 after engine continuation)   WR: 68%