A Data-Driven Guide to Winning Chess: Chp. 2, The Exchange Caro-Kann

A Data-Driven Guide To Winning Chess

Chapter 2: THE EXCHANGE CARO-KANN

If you are new to this series, please see the introduction in Chapter 1 for more information about how to use these studies! 

INTRO: Today we continue our studies with a review of the ECK (n=20,000 games, µ rating=1392), played in approximately 30% of CK games in the intermediate rating range. ECK is reached after 1. e4 c6 2. d4 d5 3. exd5 cxd5 (exchanging the pawns).  Unlike the ACK where black can gain an early advantage, at this point the game the ECK is about equal. White plays four continuations relatively commonly; all others are exceedingly rare. Win-Rates (WR) vary widely among the paths white chooses, and black can gain an edge in all lines with precise play. WR are always discussed from the side being studied (i.e. WR=57% means black wins 57% of the time).

White's most common continuations are 4. Nf3 (30%, WR equal) 4. Nc3 (25%, WR  52%), and 4. Bd3 (15%, WR 42%). The Panov, 4. c4 (23%, WR 45%) is a dangerous line and will be covered in the next chapter of this study. Rare continuations that will be explored here are 4. c3 (2%, WR equal), and 4. f4 (0.5%, WR 42%). 

2.0 PRIMER

Before continuing our sojourn into the ECK, there are some critical concepts to review. These topics are summarized below, and covered in greater depth in GM Dejan Bojkov's Chess.com lessons The Carlsbad Pawn Structure and in GM Melikset Khachiyan's Secrets of the Carlsbad. For a more general review of critical pawn structures to know in chess, see GM Jon Ludvig Hammer's course, Deep Concepts in Chess.

2.0.1: Carlsbad Pawn Structure

2.0.2: Minority Attack

In the ECK, black can launch a minority attack on the queenside by advancing the a- and b-pawns, with the goal of weakening white's queenside pawn majority, usually exchanging pawns and leaving white with a backward c-pawn. For a minority attack to be successful, this plan must be pursued in the middlegame while pieces are still on the board. If it is started too late in the game, the chances of success diminish greatly. To be successful, it must also be prepared by first coordinating pieces to support the attack.

The way the pawn chains open up indicate where respective sides should focus their piece activity. Black will expand queenside with the minority attack and use pieces to support the pawns and capitalize on weaknesses created. Meanwhile, white will play on the kingside and attempt to mount a mating attack. Black must be careful to balance the need to support the minority attack with ensuring enough defensive resources are available to respond to any kingside mating threats white poses. This race, and the game, can easily be won by black if white underestimates the danger inherent to black's attack; and conversely, if black does not play precisely and coordinate well, the minority attack can induce weaknesses in black's own position, not land quickly enough, and give white enough time to coordinate a deadly threat on the kingside. The minority attack is a dangerous weapon that cuts both ways, so to answer the ECK successfully as black you must gain skill points in this critical middlegame strategy.

STUDY GAME

Carlsen v Caruana, QGD with minority attack by white. A clinic on how to coordinate pieces in the minority attack. At the end of this attack, the 3-on-2 has been reduced to a backward c-pawn and whites goes on to win the game. Please review this game as an excellent example of how to play the minority attack.

Lines in the Exchange Caro-Kann

2.1 MAIN LINES

A. 4. Nf3 (30%)