Carlsen vs. Caruana Stats: Games 1 and 2

Carlsen vs. Caruana Stats: Games 1 and 2

SmarterChess
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In this series I will be using the chess.com analysis tool to compute the players' CAPS, Avg. Diff., Best Move %, Mistake-Score, and Largest Advantage in each game.  In addition to those metrics, a rerun of the Monte Carlo simulations of the games remaining and the simulation-based odds will be updated.
Game 1: Magnus Gains Advantage, but Caruana Defends Accurately
The first game of the match lasted 115 moves, which is close to the longest World Championship game of all-time.  The record belongs to Korchnoi-Karpov, 1978, game five at 124 moves.  This game started very smoothly for Carlsen, seeming to surprise Caruana with his Sicilian opening choice.  Carlsen obtained an advantage of 1.85 by move 18 and held that advantage for a few moves until eventually slipping to an eval of 0.00 by move 24.  The play was a bit sloppy for 2830+ caliber players for the next stretch, with Caruana making a mistake on 37.Kd2.  Carlsen did not play as accurate as needed to finish with a win.  Many of the fans and analysts figured that the game was a positive for Carlsen since he quickly gained the advantage with Black and was never in a worse position after the opening.

Game 2: Caruana Easily Holds with Black

In some ways game two was the reverse of the first game.  The player with the Black pieces was better prepared, used less time, and at one point had an advantage.  In contrast to game one, the player with the black pieces (Caruana) in game two probably didn't have a large enough advantage to convert the win.

CAPS by Game Number

A career CAPS over 98 is a very strong score for any world champion.  So far through two games it's been Mr. Caruana that has held the CAPS advantage with an impressive consistency over 99!

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Best Move %

In the best move % category, Caruana has also led Carlsen in both games.

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Average Difference

The average difference is the computation of the average number of centipawns lost per move, as evaluated by Stockfish.  Continuing the same story from the metrics above, Caruana leads in both games one and two.

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Largest Eval Advantage

The largest advantage based on Stockfish evaluations goes to Carlsen in game one and Caruana in game two.  Surprisingly, both players were Black in the games in which they had a larger advantage than their opponent.

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Match Simulations

After two games and a tied score, one would expect the simulated result to stay about the same.  The only noticeable difference so far is a slight increase in the odds of a tiebreak due to a smaller number of remaining classical games.

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