Who will win from this position?

Hi people! 

Here is a scenario 9 moves into a Karpov variation of the Caro-Kann. Material is even, but is one of the players is positioned unfortunately? What you do guys think? Is this position even, or is it a winning position for one of the players? 

Thanks!

I prefer white who has better central control and no bad bishop (compare Bc8), but I couldn't call it winning. Do the computer monsters already consider it a win for white ?

i think this position is even becouse of this is still opening

Don't know about what a computer engine would say. Don't have one. But of the games in the Game Explorer White won 43 % of the games from this position, Black 20 %, while there was a draw in 37 % of the games. That's favoring White by no less than 59 %! If it's really the case that one player has such a huge advantage after just 9 moves, then the opening is way more important than I thought! 

Any thoughts?

By the way, is the Karpov variation of the Caro-Kann a brainchild of Karpov with the White or the Black pieces?

I dont know why this would be called the Karpov variation of the caro kann. After searching this position in my database I couldnt find a single game in which Karpov played this position as white or black.... 

Strange. It's called like that in the Game Explorer, after 1.e4 c6 2.d4 d5 3.Nc3 dxe4 4.Nxe4 Nd7. If followed by 5.Nf3 Ngf6 6.Ng3, it's even called Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation Kasparov Attack - indicating that it was played between these two GM's. 

NM Reb, do you think White's position is markedly better than Black's in the diagram?

white is better I think.

More space

pawn in the center

Better developed pieces

Initiative

I think the position is better for white, yes but wouldnt go so far as say its winning. The diagrammed position cant have come from 6 Ng3 as there are a pair of knights missing, so obviously white played 6 Nxf6+  instead .  The carokann with 4 Nd7 is more known as the Smyslov variation though Karpov also used this line a lot in his career. 

I prefer white because white has better pieces and more control of the center.

NM Reb, you are right. The position in the diagram didn't come from 6 Ng3. It came from 1.e4 c6 2.d4 d5 3.Nc3 dxe4 4.Nxe4 Nd7 5.Nf3 Ngf6 6.Nxf6 Nxf6 7.Bc4 e6 8.O-O Be7 9.c3 O-O. I just mentioned another line, one with is titled something Karpov/Kasparov. Strange, if they never played anything like it. 

Anyway, I'm really curious to hear your explanation about why this position is so much better for White, as I'm trying to understand. Thanks!

Thanks, paulgottlieb. The most common reply in the database here is 10. Qe2. Ne5 is also on the list, Bf5 isn't, but Bg5 is. For Black, ...c5 and ...b6 are there, both getting the problematic Bishop out. 

Here's a link to the position in the Game Explorer: http://www.chess.com/explorer/index.html?id=14755615&ply=18&black=0.

Qe2 is surprising to me. I don't understand what the queen is doing there that the rook can't do from e1. I would prefer my queen on d3, eyeing h7 and preparing an eventual battery via Bb3-c2. I would also be pretty happy if Black chose to develop his bishop to b7 as that weakens e6 and brings some sacrificial potential into play.

I don't think Black has much here....c5 doesn't accomplish much in my eyes, and an f5 break is of course out of the question because it turns e5 into a massive hole (not to mention Nd7 preparing f5 again potentially leaves e6 underprotected)

Of course that all means nothing if it's not backed by concrete analysis. So...who wants to start?

Thanks, Arctor. It's interesting to see how someone else thinks. To my untrained eyes, Re1 does indeed look as good (or better) than Qe2. But Qe2 is played in almost 2/3 of all the games in the database! 29 of 46 games, to be exact. So, there must be a reason, a reason GM's know, that you and I don't see. But what is it? Can some of you higher rated players explain this? 

Oh yes. This common idea about attacking the side ones pawns are pointing towards, why is that??? How often does it hold true?

White is winning. More control in the center.

Who will win from this position?  The guy that makes the next-to-last mistake, as opposed to the guy that makes the last mistake who will lose.  Like looks pretty rough for Black's QB (light-squred B).

PSSHH, I cannot help asking: how do you know? You are rated less than me, and I have no clue who is winning. I can quote some typical ideas, like center control and so on, but this wouldn't spring from a true understand, but would be nothing else but what a parrot could have said after spending some time in the same room as a GM. I don't mean to be offensive, I simply don't understand how you can say that. To me, that someone can say that White is winning, which the stats agree with, leaves me puzzled. And I would like to understand.

cigol the game explorer here is not the alpha and omega of Data Bases, I believe it has about 500,000 games or so. By way of comparison, the Chess Base BIG DB 2011 has almost 5,000,000 games, so it may show a slightly (or more than slightly) different winning percentage for White here.

In your posted position White has a spatial advantage but as usual in many CKD lines Black has no weaknesses so I'd rate the position as += which in reality boils down to 51%-49% winning chances for W/B.

NimzoRoy, I'm fully aware the Game Explorer isn't the Holy Grail, and a larger database might show something else. If anyone has access to such a database, I would very much like to know what it tells! However, the Game Explorer has 1.3 million games. Is Chess Base BIG DB 2011 the database? If so, I will buy it. And even if Chess Base shows something else, I doubt it would show something significantly different.