Believe it or not, we are winning after d5. Yes, winning.
7. d5 Nxe4, this leads to complications that may favour Martin. For example
8. Nxe4 Bxb2 9. Rb1 Bc3+ 10. Kf1... he has two pawns and a check for his knight. It's hard to decide if this is enough compensation, it might be. There's also Qa5+ instead of Bc3+. We can't ignore Nxe4, it needs to be considered.
^ nice timing, I was just looking at Bd2 rather than Kf1, with the same idea, and I think it's good enough that 7... Nxe4 isn't sound.
I think all Martin has here are some threats that can be easily parried with simple defense. Our kingside attack is the really threatening one here.
Right, d5 is very risky. If Martin starts an event, the tables may turn.
What event? I mean seriously, what event could he start that could seriously harm us? I can't think of any.
7. e5 almost looks interesting here. I'm not saying it's a good move. I've only looked at it very briefly and it probably wont work for some reason (I've probably missed something and I'm sure I've made suboptimal moves for both sides in my analysis), but it might be worth investigating further.
The move seemed crazy at first, but after looking at it (briefly) it doesn't look nearly as bad as I thought it would be. Some lines looked a bit unclear to me, but I couldn't really find a straight up refutation to 7. e5 (I couldn't find a line after 7. e5 where it's clear that white is significantly worse).
We might have some tricks after 7. e5, since after 7...Ne8 the rook no longer protects the queen on d8, so we can maybe take on c5. And after 7. e5 Nfd7 the e7-pawn is pinned, so 8. exd6 looks strong for us. See the board below for details.
Assuming 7. e5 doesn't work here, 7. d5 is the move I like the most here.
But after 7. d5 if Martin plays 7...Nfd7 or 7...Ne8 then I don't understand why we can't just play 8. Qd2 (to guard against checks on c3) before launching a kingside attack (e.g. rushing with the h-pawn).
7. e5 almost looks interesting here. I'm not saying it's a good move. I've only looked at it very briefly and it probably wont work for some reason (I've probably missed something), but it might be worth investigating further.
The move seemed crazy at first, but after looking at it (briefly) it doesn't look nearly as bad as I thought it would be. Some lines looked a bit unclear to me, but I couldn't really find a straight up refutation to 7. e5 (I couldn't find a line after 7. e5 where it's clear that white is significantly worse).
We might have some tricks after 7. e5, since after 7...Ne8 the rook no longer protects the queen on d8, so we can maybe take on c5. And after 7. e5 Nfd7 the e7-pawn is pinned, so 8. exd6 looks strong for us. See the board below for details.
Assuming 7. e5 doesn't work here, 7. d5 is the move I like the most here.
But after 7. d5 if Martin plays 7...Nfd7 or 7...Ne8 then I don't understand why we can't just play 8. Qd2 (to guard against checks on c3) before launching a kingside attack (e.g. rushing with the h-pawn).
7.e5?? is an extremely horrible line.
See how Stockfish NNUe and Leela view as horrible.
Open "e" without development of pieces.
I think Martin's trying to get free checks for the 5-check event. If d5, then his fianchettoed bishop is good.