Does Karjakin even have a "puncher's chance"?
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Oct 27, 2016
0
#42
yureesystem wrote:
Yes, Karjakin has a chance to beat Carlsen in a match, this will be Magnus toughs challenge. Its ridiculous 12 games limit for WCM, if Fischer complain about 24 games, 12 games is way too short for a title match.
+1
Elubas wrote:
SilentKnighte5 wrote:
Elubas wrote:
SilentKnighte5 wrote:
Elubas wrote:
"all it takes is for Carlsen to have just one bad day."
No, it takes way, way more than that. That's the point.
I agree with SF. In a 12-game match, it could easily be decided by one bad day/move for Carlsen and Karjakin just has to make a bunch of draws to hold.
I hate the 12-game match system as well as the double round robin candidates, but that reflects the problem funding the world championship cycle more than anything else.
No, the problem with that is that you'd have to also have Karjakin have no bad days, or even average days, really. Karjakin can hardly afford average days against Magnus. So you need Magnus to be playing way below his average, Karjakin to be playing way above his average basically every game, for chances to realistically emerge. Even if Karjakin got a lucky win, which is actually quite hard to get, he'd have to not allow Magnus something similar. If Karjakin can get a lucky win, it's even easier for Magnus to, because he creates many more opportunities for himself.
Even in the highly unlikely event he makes it to a playoff, his chances are very low to win that playoff. At every corner he has to beat the odds. You underestimate just how good Magnus is. Obviously it's possible, but his odds are quite low.
The shorter the match length, the better off an underdog is. End of discussion.
I didn't dispute that. Karjakin's chances are better in a 12 game match than in a 24 game match, but his chances are still quite low. To be more specific, about 5 to 1 for him to lose, as I implied in response to madhacker.
ok Elubus, I understand you have homo-erotic fantasies about Carlsen and I'm sorry. But I only said that Karjakin has a chance. To say other wise is idiotic; unless, of course, you want a certain apendage in your mouth.
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Justs99171 wrote:
ok Elubus, I understand you have homo-erotic fantasies about Carlsen and I'm sorry. But I only said that Karjakin has a chance. To say other wise is idiotic; unless, of course, you want a certain apendage in your mouth.
Wow, what a toxic waste dump of sludge. Good riddance.
Quickly becoming my favorite thread.
Oct 27, 2016
0
#47
Russia gave him computers stolen from the Nasa, so I guess if he is just as good as me at memorizing he will be able to beat Magnuts Carlson.
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BronsteinPawn wrote:
Russia gave him computers stolen from the Nasa, so I guess if he is just as good as me at memorizing he will be able to beat Magnuts Carlson.
This may be Karjakin's best chance yet to beat Carlsen.
LauriAikio wrote:
Very classy.
SilentKnighte5 wrote:
Quickly becoming my favorite thread.
I hope it becomes everyone's favorite thread.
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Justs99171 wrote:
Elubas wrote:
SilentKnighte5 wrote:
Elubas wrote:
SilentKnighte5 wrote:
Elubas wrote:
"all it takes is for Carlsen to have just one bad day."
No, it takes way, way more than that. That's the point.
I agree with SF. In a 12-game match, it could easily be decided by one bad day/move for Carlsen and Karjakin just has to make a bunch of draws to hold.
I hate the 12-game match system as well as the double round robin candidates, but that reflects the problem funding the world championship cycle more than anything else.
No, the problem with that is that you'd have to also have Karjakin have no bad days, or even average days, really. Karjakin can hardly afford average days against Magnus. So you need Magnus to be playing way below his average, Karjakin to be playing way above his average basically every game, for chances to realistically emerge. Even if Karjakin got a lucky win, which is actually quite hard to get, he'd have to not allow Magnus something similar. If Karjakin can get a lucky win, it's even easier for Magnus to, because he creates many more opportunities for himself.
Even in the highly unlikely event he makes it to a playoff, his chances are very low to win that playoff. At every corner he has to beat the odds. You underestimate just how good Magnus is. Obviously it's possible, but his odds are quite low.
The shorter the match length, the better off an underdog is. End of discussion.
I didn't dispute that. Karjakin's chances are better in a 12 game match than in a 24 game match, but his chances are still quite low. To be more specific, about 5 to 1 for him to lose, as I implied in response to madhacker.
ok Elubus, I understand you have homo-erotic fantasies about Carlsen and I'm sorry. But I only said that Karjakin has a chance. To say other wise is idiotic; unless, of course, you want a certain apendage in your mouth.
Well, it's pretty dumb to think I think Karjakin's chances are 0% just based on my comments lol. Your ideas go as deep as "sometimes the underdogs win" that even a five year old could come up with, but you seem to be proud of them. Yes, the underdog can win. When a person favors someone to win, they are not saying that it's theoretically impossible for the other side to win, they are saying it's unlikely.
Basically I think Carlsen is a really strong player and I like him a lot, yes. And I think that most people who vote against him are just being contrarian because they are more interested when they believe the other side has a serious chance. The "boring" truth is that Magnus is just better than his opponents in almost every way, and thus there is no strategy against him to which Magnus doesn't have an easy counter. Last time the speculation was about superior opening preparation, but Anand came up quite short in that department.
For the record, though, guys like Caruana would pose a much bigger problem for Magnus (though still, to me, I would be confident of a Magnus victory). Perhaps Giri even, who is probably not the next strongest player overall, could create problems because of how solid as a rock he is. He's good at drawing, and that's useful in matches. And he has a good overall record against Magnus and only recently did Magnus overcome a psychological barrier and get his first classical win against him.
(Edit: And recently Maxime Vachier Lagrave seems to have gotten much better so he could be a tricky opponent as well.)
Karjakin? Just bland by comparison. He's a very strong player, but just a typical 2700 player is not enough against Magnus. He doesn't have any standout qualities, just seems to be a universal player that won't give Magnus too many surprises.
Elubas wrote:
For the record, though, guys like Caruana would pose a much bigger problem for Magnus (though still, to me, I would be confident of a Magnus victory). Perhaps Giri even, who is probably not the next strongest player overall, could create problems because of how solid as a rock he is. He's good at drawing, and that's useful in matches. And he has a good overall record against Magnus and only recently did Magnus overcome a psychological barrier and get his first classical win against him.
(Edit: And recently Maxime Vachier Lagrave seems to have gotten much better so he could be a tricky opponent as well.)
Karjakin? Just bland by comparison. He's a very strong player, but just a typical 2700 player is not enough against Magnus. He doesn't have any standout qualities, just seems to be a universal player that won't give Magnus too many surprises.
I remember when Caruana did a brilliant Sinquerfield cup and won ahead of Magnus. In at least two games he had a good advantage from great opening preps. I think Karjakin is set up with an even better prep-team now, and I also think that he basically has ca the same strenght as Anand, Caruana, MVL and Giri.