Does Karjakin even have a "puncher's chance"?

He had a pretty small chance, but it looks like that small chance might have been enough this time. Magnus has a tough task ahead of him, though he is quite capable of coming back. Karjakin has been playing outstanding chess all things considered, and I have to give him credit for being a serious threat to Magnus at this very moment.

I wouldn't say you could predict this based on just, say, the first four games. Maybe after the first six. This sounds boring to say, but the real way you could tell was simply when Magnus lost :) Then, yes, I agreed, things were going Sergey's way :)

And he was quite right about it in the Anand matches, a man many would say was more qualified to beat Magnus in a match.

2016 is a good year to be an underdog.

The sad thing is Magnus might even have to win the next candidates tournament to get another shot, I think that's how it works. But the WCC, I've been saying since Anand-Gelfand, just isn't what it used to be. Karjakin is having a remarkable performance and the WCC will represent that, but there is no way I'm going to believe he is a better player than Magnus just because of a single event, no matter how big it is.

Yes, the problem with him sometimes is not what he says, but how he says it. I suppose this time being Karjakin a Putin's supporter had something to do with it. Did Karpov make any comment before the match? I still remember his only tweet ever: Anand should not underestimate Boris he will give tough fight

"Yes, the problem with him sometimes is not what he says, but how he says it."

Good point.

I was certain Carlsen would win very easily. The difference between the two is just huge. OK, "only" +3-0=7 the last ten games before the match, but that includes a couple of games where Carlsen had winning or close to winning positions but no games where he ever was close to be in any trouble.

Also in general the difference has been big, with Karjakin outside the top ten all last year and Carlsen very clear #1 after winning lots of top events. But it's clear Karjakin is playing at his best while Carlsen has been playing well below his normal level, such things happen though. To me Karjakin winning this would still be a bigger surprise than Euwe beating Alekhine and Kramnik beating Kasparov.

Remember that Carlsen and Karjakin started out as the largest talents in the world, and equally superstrong. They became GM at the age 13 and 12. Karjakin had worse development and worse conditions as a teenager and Carlsen pulled ahead, and have been holding a slight lead for a decade. This year has been different. Carlsen has been working as he usually does, but Karjakin have got a lot better training conditions , strongly supported by Russia. Carlsen stands on his own and have no coaches and no support team except for them he pays from this own pocket. Carlsen is not supported financially by the state of Norway.  Norway puts its money into physical sports, like skiing and football(soccer).  Karjakin and his team has been working really well, and it looks like openings wasn't the focus. The focus probably have been on psychology and playing endgame and late middle game  with Magnus-quality.  Karjakin have so far outplayed Carlsen psychologically, and played frustration and impatience on him.   To me it looks like they have almost the same basis-strength now, and that the difference is that Karjakin with slow style provokes Carlsen to play too impatient. Karjakin and his team is better psyko-prepared, while Carlsen isn't psykoprepared at all. He has been neglecting the psychological aspect of the game. He has been neglecting it, because he doesn't have the resources. There is no backing from the state  of Norway.

Kasparov is very anti-Putin, and Karjakin is walking around in Putin- t-shirts. I think Kasparov is anti-Karjakin because of political things. Not because of chess.

I think this match will stay exciting 'till the end. Never underestimate Carlsen!

I know, take a look at #132.

Kasparov talks and tweets too much.

It's all Leicester City's fault.

Carlsen getting a win on demand. It's what he does.

 Magnus was lucky now in game 10. It looked terrifying when he blundered the f-line with B x e6. On the other hand, Serjosha was lucky when Magnus played bad in game 8 and gave him his victory. The luck levels out, and the thriller thrills!

Well, I don't agree with those who thinks Karjakin has played so well. It is more Carlsen not playing at his usual level in game 3, 4 and 8.

Yes, Magnus has missed some moves that he would usually find. But just as Capablanca played relatively poorly against Alekhine, much of it has to do with his opponent forcing him to make difficult choices throughout the game. 

I'm not a fan of Karjakin's style in this match. It really seems as if his match strategy is to survive, not take any risks, and then get lucky in the tie-break. But, Karjakin is playing far better than he did in the Candidates, which he won! 

I still like Carlsen to win the match, but Karjakin deserves respect for being such a difficult opponent. Perhaps only Giri could have performed as well for so many games against Carlsen.

No, he had a large chance to win, but most people simply underestimated Karjakin. His potential was already present before the match started.

Well, I think he had a pretty small chance. Technically, you can't really prove whether he had a large or a small chance based on the end result. Because any result is possible with either chance. There really wasn't much indicating that Karjakin was going to be a tough match player, other than perhaps his performance at the candidates. It looks like, anyway, that Karjakin's tenacity in bad positions ended up having the desired effect. I admittedly didn't know that about him, but I'm convinced now based on how he's defended against the best grinder in the game.