can one of us win?


This looks thoroughly drawn to me. Of course, either one can win given a blunder from the other side, but barring blunders this is draw city.

Drawn with best play from both sides, black doesn't have time to hunt down the white a-pawn. Both kings advance on the king side and a stand off ensues, would be my bet.

I toyed around with black trying to kill the pawn on the a file and promote there, but white beats him to it on the other side. If black goes to defend, then it's just dead drawn.

I think white may actually win, because white can advance two pawns on the kingside if they tried really hard, and black can only advance one pawn on the queenside.
I see a draw. Ke2 is the best shot, threatening f3. Black has to defend it and can't go after the a pawn.
1. Ke2 Kc6 2. f3 Kb5 3. fxg4 Kxa5 6. g6 +- and black won't make it, so both will have to go for the kingside. 1. Ke2 Ke6 2. f3 gxf3+ (2... Kf5 3. fxg4+ Kxg4 4. Kf2 Kh3 5. Kf3 and black will have to defend with 5...Kh4 which is obviously drawn; 5...Kxh2 6. Kg4 Kg2 7. Kxg5 +- doesn't cut it as white will keep his king on the sixth rank, advance the a pawn to the same rank and devour the black pawn) 3. Kxf3 Kf5 4. h3 = and neither side can make progress, if anyone leaves for the queenside the opponent will promote first. Dead drawn.